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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Inez, KY

June 25, 2024 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM
Moonrise 11:10 PM   Moonset 8:49 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Inez, KY
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Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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099 FXUS63 KJKL 251725 AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity returns for today and Wednesday.

- Next best chance of rain will be Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

- Hotter weather is expected to make a comeback by Friday and especially Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values peaking around or in excess of 100 degrees.

UPDATE
Issued at 1106 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Not many changes to the grids aside from loading in the latest obs and adjusting based on those trends. Also, touched up PoP to reflect latest guidance regarding an approaching MCS. Lastly, updated morning text and radio products to reflect the changes and remove any mention of valley fog.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation and trends.
Fog in the river valleys continues to lift and should gradually dissipate over the next hour. With high pressure in place to the southeast of the area, warmer and more moist air will advect into the region today with temperatures expected to peak again near the 90 degree mark.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered across the Southern Rockies to Southwestern Conus with the ridge also extending into the TN and OH Valley regions. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Appalachians. Upstream of the region, a couple of shortwave troughs were moving from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region while further north an upper level low was located northeast of Hudson Bay while an associated trough axis southwest across Hudson bay to northwest Ontario and then west across Manitoba, Saskatchewan,and Alberta. Locally, some valley fog has developed primarily in the KY and Cumberland River basins and was generally more patchy in the Big Sandy basin.
Temperatures in the deeper valley locations have dropped off into the mid to upper 50s while ridgetop locations remain generally in the mid 60s.

Today, height rises are expected across the Commonwealth into the afternoon before little change from late in the afternoon into the evening as a couple of shortwaves pass generally north of the area and through the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a more substantial shortwave/500 mb trough is expected to work into the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley late today and this evening and then into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight. At the surface, low pressure should track from Ontario into Quebec with a trailing frontal zone working across Ontario and the western and central Great Lakes. The triple point is expected to move east of Lake Huron this evening while the warm front to the south moves across the Lower OH Valley today and the cold front settles southwest across portions of MI to the Central Plains by this evening.
However, this boundary should continue sagging southeast tonight.

Height rises should keep eastern KY free of convection or largely free of convection today and into this evening. However, some of the CAMS have convection that develops over IN and OH or a resultant outflow dropping to near if not south of the OH River by this evening. This could result in some weakening convection or an outflow reaching areas generally near or north of Interstate 64 this evening and some isolated convection in that area. By late evening into the overnight hours, a period of relative lull is the general consensus of guidance, although as the boundary continues to sag south of the Central Great Lakes and nears the OH Valley, additional convection could affect northern locations generally north of the Mountain Parkway late tonight. A more substantial shortwave trough should near the western Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley late tonight as well.

Chances for convection will be more substantial on Wednesday as a shortwave trough works further east across the Great Lakes and the Lower OH Valley region and the cold front gradually sags south into eastern KY. There is some uncertainty as to the degree of instability, but dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 combined with temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s should result in at least marginal to moderate instability. Confidences is higher that shear will be more marginal, but possibly enough for some storm organization. Ahead of the boundary on Wednesday, rather marginal MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are anticipated per 0Z HRRR mean with bulk shear on the order of 20 to 25KT.
Values of CAPE in the 03Z RAP are more substantial, with MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and MUCAPE of 3000 to 2500 J/kg while bulk shear is similar with 20KT south and 30KT north. Low level lapse rates should be quite steep ahead of the front in the 7 to 9C/km range with mid level lapse rates less substantial in the 6 to 7C/km range. 0Z HRRR mean PW is generally is in the 1.6 to 1.85 inch range with some models a little bit higher. DCAPE of 1000 to 1300 J/kg is forecast per the 03Z RAP. The 0Z HRRR also has some modest 2-5km UH probabilities for portions of the area. Given the rather steep low level lapse rate forecast and the DCAPE forecast combined with marginal shear and mid level lapse rates, strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat for storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening with some generally small hail not out of the question. Some locally heavy rain could also occur with the stronger storms given the PW values around or in excess of the 90th percentile range, but rather dry weather over the past 1 to 2 weeks would be a limiting factor to any flood threat and for most locations what rain that falls would be beneficial.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

The 25/00z model suite 500H analysis beginning Wednesday evening shows troughing over eastern North America associated with a parent ~534 dam low spinning over southern Baffin Island. At the surface, a cold front extends from a low over the Labrador Sea southward to along the New England Coast and then southwestward across the Appalachians to near the mid and lower main stem Ohio River. To the west, an ~595 dam high is found over the New Mexico/Mexico border and an associated ridge axis extends northward along the eastern slopes of the Rockies to an ~571 dam high over the upper Yukon River basin. Surface high pressure is centered over the Upper Midwest but extends from the Central Plains all the way into the Mackenzie River basin of Northern Canada. Another ~560 dam low is coming ashore the Pacific Northwest.

The axis of the upper level trough will pass through eastern Kentucky on Wednesday evening, nudging the cold front through before it hangs up just off to our south and east on Thursday. PoPs wane from northwest to southeast behind the front as drier and somewhat cooler air arrives on northerly winds. By Thursday, the ridging aloft moves in from the west while subsiding ahead of the Pacific Northwest low/trough. At the surface, high pressure passes through the Great Lakes on Thursday and Thursday night. As that high departs through the Northeast on Friday, mild and moist southerly flow redevelops over the Ohio Valley. There is a small chance for deep convection on both Thursday and Friday, primarily over and near the high terrain adjacent to Virginia border. PWATs continue rising heading into Saturday and Saturday night, potentially peaking around 2.0 inches (near climatological maximums for this time of year).
With 850 mb temperatures climbing to between 20-22C on Saturday and those anomalously high PWATs, expect dew points to rise in the 70s coincident with air temperatures well into the 90s. This will set the stage for heat indices approaching 105F -- advisory criteria -- at some locations. There is a better chance (30-40%) for deep convection on Saturday, particularly over the southeastern high terrain, though neutral to weak height rises should temper overall storm coverage and updraft intensity. In the meantime, a low pressure system develops over eastern Wyoming/Montana (ahead of the Pacific upper low) before trekking across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday night and over eastern Canada this weekend. This low will drag another cool front through eastern Kentucky on Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring more widespread rain chances for the second half of the weekend. Another high pressure builds across the Great Lakes on Monday behind the cool front, bringing a briefly cooler and drier air mass before the heat returns again as Independence Day approaches.

This weather pattern may bring on deja vu for some as multiple weak cool fronts will bring the opportunity for some rainfall, followed by a day a cooler and drier weather before heat and humidity quickly return on subsequent days and persist until the next weak cool front arrives. While there is at least a slight chance of rain on every day, at least over the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky, the best rain chances will come ahead of and along the frontal boundaries. In sensible terms, look for showers and thunderstorms to diminish from northwest to southeast Wednesday evening and night such that only a stray shower or storm is possible by Thursday.
Similar to earlier in the week, temperatures will cool off to the mid 80s for highs on Thursday and will likely be followed by a sharper ridge-valley split on Thursday night as high pressure returns with clear skies and light winds. Look for lows in the upper 50s in northern sheltered valleys to the upper 60s on thermal belt ridges/slopes. Daily high temperatures rebound to the lower 90s on Friday and lower to middle 90s on Saturday. A stray shower or storm (10-20% chance) cannot be ruled again on Friday afternoon and evening, mainly in those counties adjacent to the Virginia border. Unlike the recent heat that was accompanied by moderate humidity levels, dew points by Saturday are forecast to rise into the 70s, which will support oppressive heat indices in the 100 to 105 range for most lower elevation locations. Better rain chances (30-40%) are also forecast for Saturday afternoon, though again the higher elevations closer to the Virginia border will be most favored. The next cold front will brings the best rain chances (50-70%) of the period on Sunday. Any leftover rain chances become confined to southeast Kentucky on Monday as cooler and drier air filters back across eastern Kentucky, holding highs in the mid 80s for most. Nighttime lows, which rise in the upper 60s to mid 70s over the weekend, retreat to the upper 50s to mid 60s early next week behind that front.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing across the area and will persist through much of the TAF period. Increasing and lowering CIGS are expected over the next few hours as an MCS approaches the area.
However, the MCS is expected to continue to weaken as it approaches the area with minimal chances for showers and storms.
Lingering cloud cover and the approach of a cold front will lower CIGS even more across the area but remaining VFR. Opted to add VCTS to all TAF sites after 12Z/Wednesday with VCTS being possible at KSYM after 08Z and persisting through the period as the cold front moves through the region. Lastly, south to southwesterly winds at less than 10 knots are expected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSJS BIG SANDY RGNL,KY 12 sm9 minS 0710 smClear90°F59°F36%30.01
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