Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Inez, KY
May 21, 2024 4:07 PM EDT (20:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 6:06 PM Moonset 3:53 AM |
FXUS63 KJKL 211908 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 308 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather is expected area wide through Wednesday morning.
High temperatures may approach or exceed record levels this afternoon.
- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from Wednesday afternoon through Monday.
- Very warm temperatures will persist through Wednesday. An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will bring somewhat lower temperature after that.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure is posted up along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a low pressure and cold front is pushing into the Midwest. In the mid-levels, a shortwave trough axis is pushing eastward into the Midwest. We see subtle mid-level height rises in the Lower Ohio Valley ahead of this negatively tilting trough axis. This shortwave ridging will keep our weather mostly quiet through the afternoon into tonight.
However, an isolated (chances of rain around 15-20 percent) shower or thunderstorm remains possible through the afternoon before we loose the diurnal heating and perhaps a weak shortwave noted pushes east. After this, expect mostly clear skies to prevail tonight, with some patchy to areas of fog mainly along the river valleys late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday, the previously mentioned cold front will move eastward toward the Ohio Valley late tonight into Wednesday. There is decent agreement in the ensembles and deterministic guidance that another low will develop along the weakening frontal boundary.
Particularly, as another shortwave is noted in the mid-levels pushes east. However, the better height falls in the mid-levels comes later in the day. Given the nearby cold front and some shortwaves riding through the flow expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase through the day, with rain chances increasing to 20-50 percent in the afternoon. SPC does have a risk of some scattered severe weather for Wednesday, but overall the risk seems low. However, if we can build some instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE you would have decent kinematics to work with, as effective shear climbs to around 30-40 knots. The best chance of stronger storms would be generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway. The main threat would be an isolated damaging wind threat. We will not be as warm as the last few days owing to cloud cover, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 80s in most cases. Wednesday night, the diffuse cold front will stall out nearby, with showers and thunderstorm chances continuing into the night. Particularly given many of the CAMs, ensembles and deterministic models show a shortwave trough riding through the flow. This will lead rain chances around the 30-60 percent range.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
Still seeing pretty good agreement amongst the models regarding the flow pattern aloft in the extended. A large, broad trough of low pressure is currently being forecast to spin its wheels over the western third of the CONUS to begin the period. Smaller scale, fast moving short waves are progged to migrate eastward from the larger upper trough as it spins in place to the west. We will see rounds of showers and storms firing across the area, as each short wave moves through the region and interacts with the ample moisture and instability that will be in place. The western trough will eventually be displaced to the east later in the period, as ridging aloft begins building into the western and southwestern portions of the CONUS, and shifts the entire unsettled pattern eastward with time. The highest probability for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hour each day Thursday through the first of the new work week. At this time it appears that although there will be plenty of moisture and instability in place to consistent allow for thunderstorms, the anticipate wind shear looks like it will be too weak to support any sort of severe weather at this time.
There is still a very low chance that portions of eastern Kentucky could receive excessive rainfall on Friday that could lead to isolated hydro issues around the area. With persistent widespread clouds in place, we should see mild and generally uniform nightly temperatures across the area, with no discernible ridge valley differences expected. We should see daytime highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s each day, or 2 to 5 degrees above normal on average. Nightly lows should fall into the low to mid 60s.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
We are seeing cumulus cloud streets this afternoon and even a pop up very isolated shower. The TAF site is expected to remain VFR with perhaps a few cumulus bases nearing MVFR through the afternoon. Then we will loose any cumulus as daytime heating relents this evening. The winds will remain light as 5 knots or less in most cases. This increases some Wednesday after 15Z to generally less than 10 knots out of southwest.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 308 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather is expected area wide through Wednesday morning.
High temperatures may approach or exceed record levels this afternoon.
- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from Wednesday afternoon through Monday.
- Very warm temperatures will persist through Wednesday. An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will bring somewhat lower temperature after that.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure is posted up along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a low pressure and cold front is pushing into the Midwest. In the mid-levels, a shortwave trough axis is pushing eastward into the Midwest. We see subtle mid-level height rises in the Lower Ohio Valley ahead of this negatively tilting trough axis. This shortwave ridging will keep our weather mostly quiet through the afternoon into tonight.
However, an isolated (chances of rain around 15-20 percent) shower or thunderstorm remains possible through the afternoon before we loose the diurnal heating and perhaps a weak shortwave noted pushes east. After this, expect mostly clear skies to prevail tonight, with some patchy to areas of fog mainly along the river valleys late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday, the previously mentioned cold front will move eastward toward the Ohio Valley late tonight into Wednesday. There is decent agreement in the ensembles and deterministic guidance that another low will develop along the weakening frontal boundary.
Particularly, as another shortwave is noted in the mid-levels pushes east. However, the better height falls in the mid-levels comes later in the day. Given the nearby cold front and some shortwaves riding through the flow expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase through the day, with rain chances increasing to 20-50 percent in the afternoon. SPC does have a risk of some scattered severe weather for Wednesday, but overall the risk seems low. However, if we can build some instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE you would have decent kinematics to work with, as effective shear climbs to around 30-40 knots. The best chance of stronger storms would be generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway. The main threat would be an isolated damaging wind threat. We will not be as warm as the last few days owing to cloud cover, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 80s in most cases. Wednesday night, the diffuse cold front will stall out nearby, with showers and thunderstorm chances continuing into the night. Particularly given many of the CAMs, ensembles and deterministic models show a shortwave trough riding through the flow. This will lead rain chances around the 30-60 percent range.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
Still seeing pretty good agreement amongst the models regarding the flow pattern aloft in the extended. A large, broad trough of low pressure is currently being forecast to spin its wheels over the western third of the CONUS to begin the period. Smaller scale, fast moving short waves are progged to migrate eastward from the larger upper trough as it spins in place to the west. We will see rounds of showers and storms firing across the area, as each short wave moves through the region and interacts with the ample moisture and instability that will be in place. The western trough will eventually be displaced to the east later in the period, as ridging aloft begins building into the western and southwestern portions of the CONUS, and shifts the entire unsettled pattern eastward with time. The highest probability for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hour each day Thursday through the first of the new work week. At this time it appears that although there will be plenty of moisture and instability in place to consistent allow for thunderstorms, the anticipate wind shear looks like it will be too weak to support any sort of severe weather at this time.
There is still a very low chance that portions of eastern Kentucky could receive excessive rainfall on Friday that could lead to isolated hydro issues around the area. With persistent widespread clouds in place, we should see mild and generally uniform nightly temperatures across the area, with no discernible ridge valley differences expected. We should see daytime highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s each day, or 2 to 5 degrees above normal on average. Nightly lows should fall into the low to mid 60s.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
We are seeing cumulus cloud streets this afternoon and even a pop up very isolated shower. The TAF site is expected to remain VFR with perhaps a few cumulus bases nearing MVFR through the afternoon. Then we will loose any cumulus as daytime heating relents this evening. The winds will remain light as 5 knots or less in most cases. This increases some Wednesday after 15Z to generally less than 10 knots out of southwest.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSJS BIG SANDY RGNL,KY | 12 sm | 12 min | W 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 86°F | 61°F | 43% | 29.98 |
Charleston, WV,
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