Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tappahannock, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated showers and storms are possible today, with mainly dry weather to end the week. Temperatures drop to slightly below average late this week.

2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and isolated- scattered diurnally driven convection each day.

DISCUSSION
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated showers and storms are possible today, with mainly dry weather to end the week. Temperatures drop to slightly below average late this week.

Early morning wx analysis shows an anomalously strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft that continues to strengthen as it tracks along the Northeast CONUS coast. The associated trailing cold front is crossing the area at this hour, with light NW winds and slightly lower dew pts across NW portions of the FA. Convection has ended. Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry wx is expected from today through Friday as that low pressure system very slowly tracks from NY/NJ to northern New England. The cold front will move to our SE later today...with 60s dew pts arriving in all areas except far SE VA and NE NC. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to cumulus given the close proximity to the upper low. While most areas will stay dry, an isolated shower/tstm is possible from mid aftn through the evening, with the best chance across the SE where dew pts (and thus instability) will be highest. Will have no higher than 20% PoPs and have noted that the blended guidance has no PoPs at all for today.
Thursday through Friday looks mostly dry as the low pressure system moves farther away, with near to slightly below average temperatures, as LLVL flow will continue to be out of the NW.
Overall, quite pleasant for late July.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and isolated-scattered diurnally driven convection each day.

Upper heights gradually build from Friday-Saturday with temps warming back up to near average and mostly dry wx continuing. A weaker trough (more typical of summertime) establishes itself over the eastern CONUS late this weekend into early next week.
Additionally, dew pts rise and deep layer moisture increases during this time. This will allow for daily tstm chances to return by Sunday and continue through at least Tuesday. Widespread severe wx is not expected and temps remain around average.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions have returned to the terminals early this morning and will prevail through the period. SCT-BKN cumulus develops today on the back side of the low pressure system that caused the storms yesterday. Light winds become NW at 8-12kt (locally 10-15kt gusting to ~20kt at SBY). An isolated shower/tstm is possible INVOF ORF/ECG this aftn/evening, but the probability is quite low (15-20%).

Outlook: Drier conditions return by late week and likely linger into much of next weekend.

MARINE
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A brief surge of NW winds arrives early this morning with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Another, weaker surge of NW winds arrives tonight.

- Generally benign marine conditions continue from this afternoon into early next week.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front moving across the local waters early this morning. Winds become NW behind the front, increasing to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this morning before diminishing and becoming N/NW 5-10 kt this afternoon. While there may be a brief period of 15-20 kt winds across the middle Ches Bay this morning, confidence is too low for SCAs given wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds below 50%. However, if winds overperform, a short-fused SCA may be needed. A second, brief NW surge is possible tonight with gusts up to 20 kt possible once again.
However, wind probs for this surge (for 18 kt sustained winds) were below 40%. Otherwise, a period of generally benign marine conditions is expected through early next week outside of a brief SE/S surge late Sat/Sat evening.

Waves of 2-3 ft this morning subside to 1-2 ft this afternoon.
Meanwhile, seas of 3-4 ft diminish to 2-3 ft. Given NW winds and diminishing seas over the next few days, the rip current risk is expected to remain low.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.