Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:30PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:42 PM EDT (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 734 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move overhead tonight, then pull offshore Saturday as tropical storm nestor moves across the north-central gulf coast and into the southeastern united states. NEstor will move northeastward offshore of north carolina or virginia on Sunday, then meander offshore through Tuesday until another cold front approaching from the ohio valley pushes across the region. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and again Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 182032
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
432 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will build overhead tonight into Saturday
morning, then slides off the mid atlantic coast late Saturday
into Saturday evening. Low pressure system will impact the
region late Saturday night and Sunday bringing more rain.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 400 pm edt Friday...

late this aftn, sunny and cool conditions were prevailing across
the area with temps in the lower to mid 60s. Sfc high pressure
will build overhead tonight into Sat morning, providing another
cold night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s over
much of the region (mid to upper 40s at the SE coast). Patchy or
areas of frost will be likely in the colder spots of the NW w
piedmont counties. So, have added eastern louisa county, and
cumberland, goochland, and prince edward counties to the frost
advisory.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 400 pm edt Friday...

after a cold morning, dry wx will prevail on Sat as sfc high
pressure slides off the mid atlc coast late Sat into sat
evening. Plenty of sunshine expected for most of the day, with
increasing clouds from SW to NE late in the day into Sat night.

High temps on Sat will be a bit warmer in the mid to upper 60s.

Late Sat night and sun, potential tropical cyclone sixteen
currently in the central gulf of mexico, will then impact the
region as it tracks NE just inland of the SE coast then off the
mid atlc coast. Rain from this system will overspread the area
from SW to NE from late Sat evening into early Sun morning. Rain
then expected over all areas through at least midday early sun
aftn, before pushing ewrd and off the coast late Sun aftn into
sun evening, as the storm moves farther E off the va coast.

At this time, a substantial rainfall is expected for most of the
region from this storm system. QPF amounts of 1-2 inches will be
possible across SRN SE portions, with .50-.75 inch possible
across NRN NW third of the area. Dry wx and generally a partly
cloudy sky for later Sun night and mon, as the storm moves
farther out into the atlc and high pressure builds in from the
north.

Lows in the 50s to near 60 Sat night. Highs on Sun will range
from the lower 60s nw, to the lower 70s se. Lows Sun night in
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Highs on Mon in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 400 pm edt Friday...

a closed low will be moving NE across the upper plains with a cold
front extending south to the gulf of mexico Monday night. The low
pressure system will continue to move north towards the hudson bay
as a cold front approaches the area. Second sfc low pressure system
developing in the region at the same time, bringing the next chance
of widespread rainfall for va, md, and nc. Timing of the frontal
passage will be Tuesday afternoon into the evening. ECMWF remains
slower than the GFS but both models moves all the rain off the coast
by sunrise on Wednesday, with dry condition expected during the day
Wednesday through the end of the work week.

Since the main area of low pressure will be moving north into
central canada, we will not see strong cold air advection as sfc
high pressure system builds into the area behind the front, although
temperatures will be cooler. Low temperatures will be in the 40s
inland and low 50s near the immediate coast. Coldest morning for the
week will be Thursday morning as the center of the sfc high will be
over SE va NE nc, with lows in the mid 40s (near 50 along the
immediate coast).

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
As of 215 pm edt Friday...

vfr conditions are expected at the TAF sites this aftn into sat
aftn. NW or N winds 5-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt thru
late this aftn, before diminishing to under 10kts by early this
evening. High pressure centered over NRN ohio will build right
over the region tonight into early sat, maintaining a clear sky
and light or calm winds over the area.

Next chance for flight restrictions will be with potential
tropical cyclone sixteen currently in the central gulf. This
storm is forecast to track NE and up the SE coast this weekend,
bringing rain to our area late Sat night and sun. Ifr conditions
will be likely at all TAF sites from very late Sat night thru
sun, especially during times of heavy rain. The system should
exit farther off the mid atlc coast Sun night, with mainlyVFR
conditions returning for mon. A cold front will bring additional
showers and possibly lower CIGS and vsbys on tue.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Friday...

afternoon surface analysis shows tropical storm nestor moving
northeast across the central gulf of mexico, with ~1018 mb high
pressure centered from the SRN great lakes to the oh valley. All
scas were allowed to expire earlier this aftn, as n-nw winds are
only ~15 kt over the waters (still a few gusts to 20 kt at elevated
sites).

N-nw winds diminish to ~10 kt by late tonight as the aforementioned
high slides closer to the area. Winds eventually become e-ne
Saturday morning before veering to the SE by evening (while
remaining AOB 10 kt) as the sfc high moves over the waters then
slides offshore. Meanwhile, tropical storm nestor tracks newd across
the gulf of mexico before reaching the fl panhandle by ~12-15z sat
morning (before becoming extratropical shortly thereafter). Latest
12z global models are in relative agreement and are forecasting the
center of the low to track just inland along the coastal carolinas
through 12z Sun before pushing off the NE nc coast by Sunday
evening. Timing is similar between the three main global models
(gfs ECMWF gem). The gem has a track that is slightly further N than
the GFS ecmwf. It is important to note that the 12z NAM has a track
that is even farther N than the gfs ECMWF gem (with a low position
over the va ERN shore by 18z sun), but have largely discounted this
solution for this forecast package (but still a good bit of
uncertainty remains). After collab with neighboring offices, went
(largely) with a gfs ECMWF blend. Expect winds (e-ene) to increase
to 25-30 kt (w gusts of 35-40 kt) over the SRN bay coastal waters
by 12z sun. There may be a brief decrease in winds S of the va-nc
border during the midday-early aftn timeframe if the low tracks
across NE nc. At the same time, e-ne winds increase to 25-30 kt
(with 35-40 kt gusts) over the lower ches bay coastal waters S of
the va-md border. Therefore, hoisted a gale watch from Sun am-late
sun evening for the ches bay S of new point comfort coastal waters s
of parramore island. Winds turn to the N by Sun evening as the low
moves offshore. There is the potential of a brief period of gale
force gusts across the bay coastal waters Sun evening (driven by caa
on the back side of the low). Seas build to 6-9 ft by late
Sunday waves to ~4 ft (4-5 ft at the lower bay mouth of the bay).

While the forecast reflects low-end gale conditions on Sun in ocean
zones N of the gale watch, opted to hold off on any headlines in
these areas for now (given that it is almost 48 hours before the
potential onset of gale conditions).

Northerly winds fall below SCA thresholds Monday morning (although
seas may remain elevated through at least Mon aftn). Winds seas
likely remain below SCA thresholds through much of Tue before
another cold front crosses the waters Tue evening-tue night.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 400 am edt Friday...

no coastal flooding is expected through Saturday night. However,
water levels are expected to rise as low pressure tracks from SE nc
to offshore of the va nc coast from Sun aftn and night. Guidance
continues to show the potential for minor coastal flooding across
parts of the area by high tide on Sunday (best chances are in areas
adjacent to the lower ches bay james river).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Saturday for vaz048-
060>062-509-510.

Marine... Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
anz632-634.

Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
anz633-656-658.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
anz654.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Cmf tmg
long term... Cp
aviation... Tmg
marine... Eri mam
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi72 min W 5.1 G 7 60°F 60°F1015.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi72 min NW 13 G 16
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi42 min W 9.7 G 12 62°F 65°F1 ft1018.4 hPa (+1.8)
NCDV2 29 mi72 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 58°F 1015 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi72 min W 5.1 G 7 61°F 66°F1015 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi72 min SSW 1 54°F 1017 hPa46°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi108 min NW 12 G 14 64°F 65°F1019.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi72 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 58°F 57°F1015.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi48 min WNW 12 G 14 61°F 1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair51°F45°F82%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSE3E3SE3SE3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm----W14
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Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:12 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.611.41.71.81.71.51.10.80.50.40.40.61.11.622.12.11.91.61.20.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.31.71.91.91.71.310.60.40.40.611.51.92.22.32.11.81.410.70.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.