Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:57PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:23 PM EDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1035 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure in the atlantic will promote a light southerly flow over the region into Wednesday. A cold front will approach the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will then settle over the area Friday and dominate into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201458
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1058 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
A weak trough of low pressure will persist across the area today.

A strong cold front moves across the area Thursday night then
stalls across north carolina Friday. High pressure builds into
the area for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1050 am edt Tuesday...

latest surface analysis suggests a weak east-west surface
trough outflow boundary extending from near the va md border on
the eastern shore through the northern neck and the northern
part of the forecast area. In fact, some shower storm activity
has already developed over somerset county this morning.

Meanwhile, dying convection from a weak upper disturbance is
over northern wv. This boundary and the interaction of the weak
short wave and associated left over convection will be the focus
of this update. Latest short term guidance suggests this
boundary will shift southward through the day with the rap and
hrrr suggesting the focus of afternoon convection along this
boundary from the tidwater through the ric metro and NW into the
blue ridge. The 06z NAM supported this scenerio although the
12z run has since backed off. However, the latest 12z href
and assocated members supports this scenerio developing as well.

As such, have raised pops to 50% along the i-64 corridor and
kept isolated to low chance pops on either side of the boundary
as there will likely be pop up convection across the entire area
today. Still could not rule out a random severe storm with
damaging winds given the forecast dcape above 1000 j kg and
steep low level lapse rates. However, lack of any significant
wind aloft will preclude more than isolated severe. In fact,
heavy rainfall may be the main concern this afternoon given the
potential for training along the boundary and high precipitable
water values of 2".

Otherwise, expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s. Am not
expecting temps quite as high as yesterday given that we are
starting out 2-4 deg cooler than yesterday.

As of 300 am edt Tuesday...

latest msas has high pressure centered near pit with a sfc trof
extending along the i95 corridor across the nern states down to
the va nc piedmont. Models show little movement in synoptic features
today as the high to the NW prevents a frontal boundary from sagging
much farther south than the mason-dixon line.

Todays forecast will be much like mon, so will continue the trend
of a pt sunny and hot day with isltd-sct aftrn eve convection dvlpng
along the sfc trof and psbly LCL sea breezes. Only diffference today
will be for high temps to be a few degrees lower than mon. Highs low
to mid 90s except 85-90 at the beaches. Dew points in the low to mid
70s yields heat index values btwn 98-103, highest over the piedmont.

Spc has most areas north of the va nc border in a marginal svr risk.

Main threat will be for strong wind gusts, but slow moving storms
may produce lclly heavy downpours and freq lightning given the local
conditions. Storms slowly dissipate after sunset due to loss of htng
but will keep chc pops going thru the evening. Otw, pt cldy, warm
and humid once again with lows in the low-mid 70s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 300 am edt Tuesday...

models coming in a bit cooler Wed due to more cloud coverage. Once
again, diurnal convection develops on the sfc trof LCL sea breezes
with the highest pops out acros the piedmont. Highs Wed arnd 90. Pt
cldy Wed nite with eve convection dissipating. Lows low-mid 70s.

A cold front approaches from the NW thurs, but does not enter the
local area until after 21z. Thus, thurs starts out with enough
heating for temps to rise back into the low-mid 90s before aftrn
convection develops. Maintained chc pops for now (highest across
the piedmont). The cold front slowly crosses the area thurs nite
along with a wind shift to the north behind it. Will maintain high
chc pops for now with lows upr 60s-mid 70s.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 am edt Tuesday...

model consensus continues to show the front stalling across srn
va by 12z fri, while the 12z 19 GFS continues to forecast the
front to clear the area by late Fri am. On the other hand, the
latest ECMWF gem both have the front moving very slowly southward
across the area on Fri before clearing the area sometime this
weekend. The cold front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves
southward) from fri-next weekend. If the ECMWF gem solution
verifies and the front slowly moves across SRN portions of the
cwa from Fri through the weekend, this would lead to continued
chances of scattered aftn- evening convection across SRN va ne
nc. Far northern portions of the CWA likely remain dry next
weekend (or see only isolated, diurnally- driven showers tstms)
as sfc high pressure over the great lakes northeast tries to
build toward the region. For now, went with a model blend and
have 20-50% pops on Fri Sat (highest S lowest n). Dry comfortable
wx prevails late sun-early next week as sfc ridging continues to
build over the area.

Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s through the extended period with
lows in the 60s (except around 70f in coastal SE va NE nc).

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 630 am edt Tuesday...

vfr conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure
dominates. A sfc trof will persist across the area which should be
the trigger for aftrn eve convection. Best areas to see any tstms
before 00z is at ric sby where vcts was added for a few hr prd. Left
thunder out of the forecast across sern TAF sites given TSTM chc
there is a bit lower and closer to 00z. Any storm could produce gusty
winds, MVFR cigs, reduced vsbys in hvy downpours and fqt lightning.

Outlook...

chc for diurnal convection conts Wed then increases Thu as a cold
front approaches from the nw. The potential for showers tstms lingers
into Fri if the cold front slows down or stalls over the region.

Marine
As of 300 am edt Tuesday...

no headlines are anticipated through mid-week. For today and
Wednesday, expect S to SW winds around 5 to 15 knots. Seas will
generally range from 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet.

By Wednesday evening, winds and seas will be on the increase as a
cold front approaches the region from the west. SW winds increase to
around 15 to 20 knots ahead of this front, and seas will likely
build to 4 to 5 feet (especially out 20 nm). As a result, small
craft advisories may be needed for at least portions of the bay and
coastal waters late Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday, the front
clears the area, allowing for winds to become NW to N and diminish
to around 5 to 15 knots. Onshore flow is anticipated on Saturday and
Sunday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr mrd
short term... Mpr
long term... Eri mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi53 min E 2.9 G 4.1 84°F1018.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9
NCDV2 29 mi53 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 88°F1018 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 84°F1018.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi53 min N 1 85°F 1020 hPa75°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi53 min N 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 1019.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi53 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 87°F1019.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi29 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 85°F 1019.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi88 minN 010.00 miFair86°F75°F72%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

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Last 24hrS5S4SW4CalmE17
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1 day agoNE3CalmE5SE3SE3E4E4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S3
2 days agoCalmS3S5S4CalmS3S4SW3CalmS3S3CalmS3S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
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Tue -- 05:07 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:58 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.91.31.71.81.81.61.30.90.60.40.30.40.81.21.61.91.91.71.51.20.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:44 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.81.21.61.91.91.81.51.10.70.50.30.40.71.11.61.921.91.71.410.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.