Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:52PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 6:19 AM EST (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 544 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Snow this morning.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 544 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will slide across the region today. High pressure will follow tonight through Thursday. Another low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and again Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 110851 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 351 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the area today and tonight. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Friday, then tracks northeast along the eastern seaboard over the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday .

Latest MSAS has the cold front offshore. Rain has been the main pcpn type, but seeing some snow/sleet mixing it at LKU/OFP/SBY over the past hr. In addition, although there is a plume of moisture streaming ne across the NC/VA Piedmont, the steadiest pcpn is beginning to shift east with sporatic lighter pcpn to the west. Thus, adjusted grids a bit per radar trends. As the colder air continues to filter south, expect the rain/snow transition to continue to drift south. However, the steadiest pcpn and intensity will shift east as well. Thus, the highest accumls may shift east from Caroline county on ne towards the nrn neck and lwr MD ern shore near Cambridge/Salisbury. Adjusted accumls to fit this trend, but still not more than one half inch at any one spot expected. Still can't rule out some wet snow flakes mixing in before ending far far east and south as PHF/MVF.

High res models continue to show a quick end to the pcpn arnd 12Z ivof the I95 corridor to arnd 15Z ern shore/sern coastal areas based on latest high res data.

All pcpn is offshore by 17Z with decreasing clouds west to east. CAA overspreads the area from the high to the west. Cold despite the aftrn sunshine. Highs 40-45.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 215 AM EST Wednesday .

Clear/cold tonite as the center of the 1040 mb high tracks ene ivof the Mason-Dixon line. A secondary CAA surge will keep the winds up over the waters and right along the coast, but expect decoupling west of the bay. Lows in the 20s to around 30 se.

The high slowly pushes off to the ne Thurs. Cold despite ample sunshine although some aftrn SC will apprch the coast due to the persistant ne flow. Highs from the upr 30s nw to mid 40s se.

The high pushes off the New England coast Thurs nite. Moisture from the dvlpng systm to the ssw increases along a sfc trof ivof the mts while addntl moisture is noted along a Carolina coastal trof. Dry air in the lwr levels should keep it dry thru 12Z Fri with the exception of some rain creeping up from ern NC. Will increase the cloud coverage in the grids but keep it dry as the models show ridging east of the mts across the rgn. Lows in the upr 20s NW to lwr 40s SE but will likely steady out or rise a bit towards sunrise as the clouds come in.

The ridging slowly breaks down Fri with WAA moisture overspreading the area from the ssw throughout the day. The deepest moisture will come up from the sw during the aftrn. Thus, will have chc morning PoPs becoming likely during the aftrn. Depending on how fast the pcpn comes in, low lvl thicknesses suggest a possible brief period of fz rain across nwrn most (climo favored) zones at the onset. Highs from arnd 40 over the wrn most zones due to the insitu-wedge ranging to near 60 across the nrn OB.

Widespread rain Fri nite (cat PoPs) as low pressure tracks ne along the Mid Atlantic coastal plain. Lows upr 30s NW to lwr 50s SE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 215 AM EST Wednesday .

Low pressure tracks northeast Saturday and into interior New England and Quebec, giving the area a dry northwest flow for Sunday. pcpn Sat morning, tapers off in the aftrn as trailing cold front pushes east. Highs Sat range from near 50 NW to lwr 60s SE. Lows Sat nite upr 30s nw to mid 40s SE. dry Sun with highs in the low-mid 50s.

Dry conditions will continue into Monday as a cold area of high pressure moves southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will be centered over the area Monday with high temperatures on Monday in the mid 40s and lows Monday night in the low 30s. Models are indicating that another area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and track into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday, bringing the next chance of rain, and possibly wintry precip for the onset of precip.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 1250 AM EST Wednesday .

The cold front is pushing off the coast this morning with abundant post-frontal rain falling behind it. IFR CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/fog will continue past 12Z. Enuf cold air filters into the area so that both RIC/SBY will likely mix with or change to wet snow for a few hrs (10Z-14Z). PHF may even see a brief mix arnd 12Z. Some IP may mix in as well at times.

High pressure quickly builds east after 15Z pushing all the pcpn offshore by 18Z. Quick column drying results in CIGS quickly lift to VFR btwn 15Z-18Z with only SCT clouds along the coast by late in the day. Gusty north winds (15-25 kts) this morning diminish to 10 kts or less after 18Z.

OUTLOOK . VFR conditions cont thru Thurs nite as high pressure tracks nne of the area. The next systm brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday through Saturday.

MARINE. As of 320 AM EST Wednesday .

The cold front has moved south and east of the waters and in its wake, N to NW winds have increased to around 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. These wind speeds will continue through the early morning hours before diminishing later this morning and this afternoon. Did not make any changes to the Small Craft Advisories on this update. A second surge of CAA is expected later this evening and tonight (that does appear weaker than the current surge this morning, but still in the 15 to 20 knot range) before high pressure builds over the local waters Thursday. An additional round of SCAs will likely be needed for at least the Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and Lower James for this next round. High pressure drifts off to the NE later Thursday through Thursday night with low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast Friday and eventually tracking north to the Mid-Atlantic Saturday.

Seas generally range from 4 to 6 feet this morning while waves in the Bay range from 2 to 4 feet. Expect seas to remain elevated to at or above 5 feet (especially out 20 nm) into potentially Thursday. Seas decrease below SCA thresholds later Thursday for all locations minus the southern coastal waters where these conditions may linger through Friday. Seas build this weekend as the next system impacts the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630- 631-638. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . CP/MPR AVIATION . MPR MARINE . AJB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi56 min N 9.9 G 13 34°F 47°F1025.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi50 min N 13 G 15
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi38 min 33°F 47°F
NCDV2 29 mi56 min NNW 8 G 11 34°F 49°F1024.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi50 min NNW 8.9 G 12 34°F 48°F1025 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi110 min NNW 4.1 38°F 1025 hPa37°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi50 min N 16 G 19 48°F1028 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi56 min N 8.9 G 12 35°F 46°F1025.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi38 min NE 19 G 21 36°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi25 minNW 43.00 miLight Snow33°F32°F100%1026.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:21 AM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:46 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:54 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.41.10.70.30.1-00.10.51.11.61.921.91.61.20.70.40.100.20.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:13 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:09 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.30.90.50.1-00.10.40.91.51.92.12.11.81.40.90.50.200.10.511.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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