Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chincoteague, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Increased Fire Danger for today.

2) Cold temperatures tonight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s inland. Frost and/or freeze conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for freezing temperatures roughly along/west of I-95 and over to the MD Eastern Shore.

3) A warming trend is expected through mid to late week. Rain chances continue to remain low until perhaps the weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increased Fire Danger for today.

Early morning analysis shows an upper trough situated over the Eastern United States. While at the surface, the secondary cold front is situated along the spine of the Appalachian mountains with the surface high further west over the upper Midwest. Ahead of the front temperatures are in the low to middle 40s with some upper 30s across the far NW Piedmont and Eastern Shore. Some patchy ground fog is possible this morning especially across SE VA and NE NC where some pockets of higher dew points remain.

Through by the mid to late morning the secondary cold front will push through the area helping to increase winds and usher in additional drier air. Winds will increase out of the NW with gusts upwards of 20-25mph. Will note, some 30mph gusts cannot be ruled especially across the Eastern Shore. With the drier air coming into place dew points will lower through the day with RH values crashing between 20- 25% and perhaps some teens across the Piedmont. With the very limited rain that fell Sunday an SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for VA and NC. Will collaborate with MD Forest Service in the morning to see if an SPS for Increased Fire danger is needed.
In addition, there has been hints of possible showers across MD in the afternoon associated with the front. However, latest sounding profiles show a very dry low level. This would allow for the rain to evaporate before reaching the surface causing virga.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold temperatures tonight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s inland. Frost and/or freeze conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for freezing temperatures roughly along/west of I-95 and over to the MD Eastern Shore.

A surface high pressure builds in across the area tonight, allowing for much stronger radiational cooling to occur compared to the previous night. Temperatures are progged to fall into the low to mid 30s for much of the inland areas and perhaps some upper 20s across the NW Piedmont. There is the possibility of low to mid 20s across the NW Piedmont as MOS guidance has noted. It is not out of the possibility given the extremely dry and cold airmass in place and if the high is over ahead and decoupling occurs. With high enough confidence in these cold temperatures the Freeze watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning west of I-95 and over to the MD Eastern Shore where there is the best potential to see sub-freezing temperatures. While further east, temperatures are progged to be between 32-36F and frost formation is possible. Therefore, Frost Advisories have been issued across portions of Eastern and SE VA and NE NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend is expected through mid to late week. Rain chances continue to remain low until perhaps the weekend.

The surface high will eventually slide off the SE coast Tuesday allowing for temperatures to moderate (though still remaining below average, especially on the coast and the Eastern Shore). Then through the middle to late week temperatures return back into the high 70s and 80s. Rain chances continue to look minimal through much of the week. The next chance of rain is Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. A stray shower cannot be ruled out. Will also mention that a possible rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out as short range models hint on some MUCAPE ahead of the front. Neither the 00z EPS or GEFS continue to remain not impressed with this system, continuing to averaging ~0.10" of QPF (at most).By this weekend models are continuing to hint on a much stronger system, bringing another chance for rainfall. As of this forecast update it does not look to be a drought buster but it could still potentially bring additional beneficial rainfall to the area.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 508 AM EDT Monday...

Predominate VFR/dry conditions expected at most sites through today. Some patchy ground fog has formed across PHF and ECG and is causing the sensor to read a variety of flight restrictions.
However, as winds have started to increase the patchy ground fog has begun to move away from the sensor and has returned to primarily VFR status. Otherwise Winds become gusty by late morning into the afternoon, in the wake of a secondary cold front dropping south across the area. Then by tonight, high pressure settles over the area allowing winds to become light and variable under clear skies.

Outlook: Conditions remain VFR through Tuesday night. Another weak front may drop south across the area Wednesday, bringing at least a low-end chance for rain showers and increasing cloud cover. VFR conditions Thursday into Friday.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another cold front will cross the coast today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from later this morning through tonight.

- A south to southwest wind will increase Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as high pressure moves offshore ahead of a weakening cold front. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible for the Chesapeake Bay as well as the lower James River.

A narrow axis of surface high pressure has settled over the region early this morning in advance of another cold front, which is moving SE across western PA and WV. The wind is WSW 5-10kt for the marine area N of Cape Henry and light and locally variable to the S. Seas are 2-3ft with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay and 1-2ft at the mouth of the Bay. The wind is expected to become W 10-15kt over the next few hours as high pressure nudges offshore. The cold front crosses the coast later this morning into the aftn with the wind becoming NW 15- 20kt with gusts to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and ocean, and 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt elsewhere. The wind will then shift to N late this aftn through much of tonight, before diminishing late. Seas build to ~3ft N to 3-4ft S by this aftn, and then will mainly be 2- 3ft N to ~4ft off the Currituck Outer Banks tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay build to 2-3ft this morning to early aftn, with a period of 3-4ft waves late this aftn into tonight, before subsiding to 2- 3ft late. SCA flags are in effect for the Ches. Bay beginning later this morning and continuing through late tonight.

High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and settles offshore by mid to late week. A weakening cold front approaches from the N Tuesday night into early Wednesday as high pressure settles offshore. A SSW wind increases to 15-20kt with gusts to near 25kt for the Ches. Bay, northern coastal waters, and potentially the lower James River. SCAs are possible for the Ches. Bay and lower James River Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Seas subside to 2-3ft Tuesday, and then build to 3-4ft N (4-5ft offshore)
later Tuesday night into early Wednesday while remaining 2-3ft S (3- 4ft offshore). This cold front settles through as a backdoor cold front Wednesday night, with another backdoor cold front possible by Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through the end of the week, with light onshore flow developing later in the week.
Seas/waves subside to 2-3ft/1-2ft later in the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>024.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>014- 030.
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-079-080-509>513-515-517-519-521.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100- 509>525-528>531.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ076- 081>083-087>090-092-097-514-516-518-520-522-528-529.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.