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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 613 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ600 613 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight, and spreads across the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday, before moving offshore Tuesday night. A cold front crosses the coast Wednesday, followed by strong high pressure building into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 112318 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 618 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and seasonal conditions continue through the rest of the week with high pressure overhead. The next storm system approaches Sunday into Monday, bringing a chance of rain across the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 135 PM EST Monday...

Temps as of 130 PM ranged from the mid 40s NW to the upper 40s SE. Some left over instability behind the cold front has allowed for scattered to widespread CU to develop across the area this afternoon. Expect CU to continue through the afternoon before quickly dissipating around sunset with the loss of diurnal instability. High pressure builds in overnight with calm winds and clear skies allowing for temps to drop into the low- mid 20s inland and low-mid 30s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Dry weather continues through the rest of the week with high pressure overhead. A cold front crosses the area Wed, bringing a reinforcing surge of colder air into the region Wed night into Thu.
Highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S Tue, upper 40s N to mid 50s S Wed, and mid 40s Thu. Lows in the upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Tue night, low-mid 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast Wed night, and low-mid 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast Thu night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Strong high pressure remains overhead Fri-Sat with dry weather continuing. There is high confidence in southern stream energy producing low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Fri-Sat. However, models continue to vary wrt the track of the low with the GFS taking an inland track, the Canadian taking an offshore track, and the Euro remaining suppressed to the S due to the strong high overhead.
Ensembles also show a bimodal solution with some members taking the low up the coast and others keeping it suppressed to the S. As such, will keep NBM PoPs which show a slight chance of rain Sun and a chance of rain Sun night into Mon (25-40% PoP). The best chance of rain appears to be along the coast.

Otherwise, highs in the mid 50s Fri and Sat, lower 50s NW to around 60F SE Sun, and mid 50s N to lower 60s S Mon. Lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and low-mid 30s along the coast Fri night, upper 20s to lower 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast Sat night, mid 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night, and upper 20s NW to upper 30s SE Mon night.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 615 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies will prevail through the 00z/11 TAF period. Winds become light and variable tonight as high pressure builds in. With high pressure overhead, winds remain light on Tue, becoming SSW 5-9 kt in the late morning- aftn.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected through Sat with high pressure dominating the local weather.

MARINE
As of 400 PM EST Monday...

High pressure is building in from the NW this aftn in the wake of a strong cold front. The wind is mainly 15-20kt with gusts to 25 kt for the ocean, Bay, and lower James River, and 10-15kt elsewhere. Seas remain 4-6ft nearshore and 5-8ft offshore, with waves in the Bay approximately 3-4ft. High pressure continues to build in from the NW tonight. The wind will gradually diminish at the pressure gradient relaxes. The SCA for the lower James continues through 7 PM, 10 PM for the Bay, and 7 AM Tuesday for the ocean where seas will be slow to subside. High pressure builds across the coast Tuesday morning and then slides offshore Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night. The wind will become SW and will increase to 10-15kt for the Bay, northern ocean zones, and lower James Tuesday night, and generally 5-10kt elsewhere. Seas gradually subside to 2-4ft Tuesday into Tuesday night. A cold front crosses the coast Wednesday, with CAA developing Wednesday night into Thursday morning as strong 1040+mb high pressure builds in from the NW. SCA conditions are likely as a N wind increases to 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt, and seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-7ft S, with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. Sub-SCA conditions then prevail late week into early next weekend with high pressure over the region. There is a potential for another low pressure system later next weekend into early next week, but confidence remains low at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

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Chincoteague Island
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Mon -- 01:58 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:47 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EST     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Assateague Beach
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Mon -- 12:14 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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