Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chincoteague, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 957 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch remains in effect Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore for the increased risk of potential Flash Flooding.

- Lull in thunderstorm activity expected early tomorrow morning as current convection moves offshore.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing across the forecast area this evening. While there was decent organization of storms earlier this evening, that has since backed off and storms have become more pulse-y in nature. Storm strength has also lessened, though there are still a few Special Weather Statements in place due to gusty winds. While there were a few thunderstorm wind damage reports from various counties, these storms have used up a lot of the instability to produce a prolific amount of lightning. The heavy rainfall threat remains intact, with torrential rain falling from Sussex County north through the MD Eastern Shore counties. A few areas have received upwards of 4" of rain.

Overnight, storms will continue to move eastward towards the coast and continue to diminish in coverage. A few strong storms and isolated instance of flash-flooding are still possible with these storms. As rainfall moves out of our area, there is some signal that patchy fog could develop in areas that saw rainfall this evening.
Have maintained mention of patchy fog mainly in the piedmont area, but this may need to be expanded pending how any fog does develop overnight. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s in far SE VA and NE NC) overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon through late evening on both Wednesday and Thursday, with coverage expected to be fairly widespread over much of the area.

- Although there is a severe threat both days, the main concern with the storms will be heavy rain/flooding, given that some areas could see an additional 1-3+" of rain on consecutive days.

Typical July temperatures are expected for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the lower 90s and upper 80s. Dew points will be in the middle 70s but given slightly cooler temperatures than Tuesday we will be below Heat Advisory criteria with Heat Index values between 100 and 104 Wednesday and middle 90s Thursday. The main concern for both these days will be strong to severe storms and Flash Flooding.
On Wednesday the upper trough will move over the area. The upper air flow will continue to be out of the WSW, however, it will be slightly stronger with winds ~25 kt across the south and 30 to 35 kt across the north. Instability values will be around the same as Tuesday with ML cape values ~3000. Dcape values will be between 750- 1000 J/kg. They are slightly weaker due to the weaker low level lapse rates. Effective Bulk shear will again be ~25 kt just suitable enough for strong to severe storms. Some of the high-res model guidance continues to show these storms developing along the mountains and moving across the Piedmont. The SPC has upgraded to a slight risk for damaging winds across the north and west of I-95.
While keeping a marginal for the southeast. The risk for severe storms continue through Thursday as instability values will continue to be high and another frontal passage approaches from the west.

The biggest and most concerning threat for tomorrow is the risk for additional Flash Flooding. Latest model guidance continues to show PWs climbing upwards of 2-2.2". Recent High-res models continue to show additional rain totals between 1 to 3" across already saturated areas. There is also the potential that some of these areas could see high amounts (4") due to the slow motion and more wide spread convection. If the same areas that see high rain fall totals on Tuesday see these higher amounts, this could lead to faster Flash Flooding. The recent 12z HRRR has shown a wide spread 10% probability of 3" of rain in 3 hrs across the I-95 corridor and west. It also highlights a 30% probability of 3" of rain in 3 hrs across the RIC metro area north across the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. With all of the ingredients, model guidance, and confidence in the forecast a Flood watch has been issued for I-95 corridor and north. This covers the peninsulas and MD Eastern Shore. The SE has been left out at this time due to the uncertainty, but depending on latest trends in the model data maybe added in the future. The risk for potential flash flooding continues Thursday as the daily risk of thunderstorms continue in an already saturated and moisture driven environment.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid through the weekend with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

The seasonable yet unsettled July weather pattern continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. An upper ridge to the southeast and decently fast zonal flow aloft will move across the northern United States and southern Canada. An upper level disturbance will track over the local area with WSW flow aloft. This will result in typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of the weekend. The good news is the storm coverage will be less this weekend than it is expected to be on Friday. Exact details are difficult at this time to pinpoint this far out, the main concern with any storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain expected from today through Friday and continued weak flow aloft. Highs each day will be around seasonal averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms continue near RIC, and will impact RIC (and perhaps PHF) between now and 08z. The tstms should gradually weaken after 08z with mainly VFR conditions expected until early-mid aftn. Numerous tstms once again develop to our west during the aftn before moving across the terminals during the evening (generally between 21-04z). Went ahead and included PROB30 groups at RIC/SBY/PHF...but have not at ORF/ECG where confidence in tstms is lower. Any storm will be capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs in +RA as well as variable wind gusts of 25-30+ knots. Outside of storms, winds will range between 5-10 kt from the southwest, though a few gusts to 15 to 20 kts are not out of the question today as daytime heating ramps up and allows for better mixing.

Outlook: Mainly VFR outside of storms from tonight-Fri (although tstms are possible through ~06z Thu). Scattered to numerous afternoon-late evening tstms are expected on both Thu and Fri, along with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus.

MARINE
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe storms possible late this afternoon into this evening across the northern waters where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect.

- Southerly winds will increase late this afternoon into this evening with a few gusts to 20 kt in the bay and 25 kt over the ocean.

- Another round of gusty southerly winds expected again on Wed afternoon/evening, along with possible strong to severe storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this afternoon and into this evening ahead of a cold front well northwest of the area. Some of the storms could be severe, especially across the northern waters. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient will tighten across the area this afternoon into this evening which will allow for some gusty south winds into this evening.
Guidance is not in great agreement in the winds tonight but the consensus is around 15 kt over the bay and 15 to 20 kt over the ocean. Will not issue a SCA but conditions will be a little choppy especially over the bay. Winds decrease tonight, but then increase again on Wednesday as another round of showers and storms impact the waters. Again, some of these could be strong to severe as they move through. Beyond tomorrow, expect relatively benign conditions across the waters for the remainder of the week.

Seas generally 3 to 4 feet late this afternoon into tonight over the coastal waters, then subsiding to 2 to 3 feet by tomorrow morning.
Seas then building again to 3 to locally 5 feet by Wed evening as the south winds increase once again. Seas then falling to around 2-3 feet by Thursday and into the weekend. Waves over the bay 2 to 3 feet tonight then falling to 1 to 2 ft Wed AM, before building again to 2 to 3 ft by tomorrow evening. Waves mostly 2 feet or less Thu through the end of the week.

The moderate risk of rip currents remain in effect today, with low rip currents expected Wed and Thu.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ064-075>078-084>086- 517>522.
Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-509>516-523.
MARINE...None.