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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chincoteague, VA

July 20, 2024 1:57 AM EDT (05:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM
Moonrise 7:20 PM   Moonset 3:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1259 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2024

Rest of tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and ne 1 ft at 4 seconds.

Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.

Sat night - E winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

Sun - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 5 seconds. A chance of showers.

Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 9 seconds and ne 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1259 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a stationary front across lifts back north over the waters today morning before dropping back to the south by tonight. Prevailing conditions will remain below advisory criteria through the period, but Thunderstorms will be possible each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 200134 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 934 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front over NC will lift back north late tonight into Saturday, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 935 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Additional showers/storms will move into the area late tonight.

Afternoon showers/tstms over southern VA and NE NC have dissipated this evening. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures in the 70s this evening. A front to our south will start to return back north later tonight in response to the upper wave over TX and LA moving NE. Will therefore bring chance PoPs to the far SW late tonight with the rest of the area (except the MD eastern shore) with slight chance PoPs.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- Unsettled on Saturday with locally heavy rain possible especially south of I-64.

- Warmer on Sunday with scattered showers/storms especially far southern VA and NE NC.

Latest CAMS are show a fairly good signal of locally heavy rainfall in central or southern Virginia Saturday afternoon as the frontal boundary hangs up over somewhere over southern VA or northern NC.
The area of heavy rainfall will be highly defendant on where this front stalls out, but the consensus is that there will be an area of heavy rain generally along US-460 tomorrow afternoon as a weak low develops along the front helping to increase moisture convergence along with precipitable water values forecast at 2.2". At this time, will hold off on any flood watch as the highest QPF is forecast to occur where lesser precip has fallen the past few days. However, will need to monitor this closely as a shift southward in the heavier precip would possibly require a flood watch.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon mainly southside and SE VA and NE NC. With the upper short wave moving overhead, the mid level flow increases to 30-40 kt which helps deep shear to increase to about 35 kt. There will likely be some breaks in the clouds in the SE on Saturday as well with MLCAPE values forecast to be around 1000 j/kg (although the breaks in the clouds are uncertain). Although the mid level lapse rates will be quite weak, there is a potential for bowing segments leading to localized damaging wind gusts where there is some destabilization.

Highs tomorrow will end up below normal for much of the area due to the excessive clouds. It will still be quite humid with dew points in the 70s, but expect highs to the in the upper 70s/lower 80s north and mid-upper 80s south.

After the frontal passage Sat night, the front will stall out once again near or just south of the VA/NC border. Precipitable water values drop to below 2" for at least the northern part of the forecast area. Will therefore go with a dry forecast later Sat night into Sunday morning for much of the area north of the VA/NC border.
Will need to keep chance PoPs south due to the proximity of the front. Sunday afternoon, expect scattered showers and storms to develop with the best concentration in NC. Highs on Sunday rise back into the mid-upper 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Somewhat unsettled through the week with mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.

- Daytime temperatures near normal, but it will be rather humid through the week.

With the Bermuda high anchored offshore and SW flow aloft for much of the week, we will not see much change in the weather next week.
Showers and storms will be favored mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with convection developing inland then moving toward the coast by evening. Precipitable water values stay around 2" all week, with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for the potential for heavy rainfall at any time or place in the forecast area, but there is no way to pin down any specifics at this point. As such, will mostly go with likely PoPs each afternoon Mon- Wed with chance PoPs Thu and Friday. It is interesting that the NBM 24 hour QPF probabilities show a 10-20% probability of over an inch of rain throughout the week, but then only a 50-70% probability of 0.01". This implies that there is the potential for heavy rainfall at any given time, but also suggests that it could stay dry.

Daytime temperatures are expected to stay near normal in the upper 80s to around 90 all well. However, with the deep moisture and high dew points, lows will struggle to drop below the lower 70s all week.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...

A cold front has pushed S into NC as of 00z. VFR with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds and any showers over s-central VA into interior NE NC are dissipating. The wind is mainly E to SE at 5-10kt. The boundary will slowly lift back N as a warm front late tonight into Saturday. As the boundary lifts back into the region early Saturday morning MVFR cigs are likely at RIC, ORF, PHF, and ECG, with IFR cigs possible at RIC. MVFR cigs are expected to linger at these sites into early aftn. Showers arrive from the SW early Saturday morning and gradually spread SW to NE through the day, with tstms possible in the aftn. Any showers/tstms will contain heavy rain that could produce brief IFR/LIFR vsby. The wind will mainly be light out of the E to SE tonight, then E to SE 5-10kt Saturday, shifting to SW in the aftn at ECG as the front lifts N.

MVFR/IFR cigs are possible in vicinity of the boundary Saturday night. Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Wednesday with daily chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warm front lifts north through the area Saturday, bringing light and variable winds.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible each day.

A stationary front has settled just S of the waters this afternoon.
This is leading to E/ENE flow around 10 kt across the waters. The highest coverage of showers/storms is expected to remain W of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay through this evening, but cannot rule out some brief thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, the front will lift back N through the area early Saturday, with perhaps a weak low also riding along the front. Thus, the wind direction may become quite variable Saturday (should average E/SE, however). There is a better chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon Saturday and could produce locally higher winds/seas/waves. Light and variable winds are expected Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds become more established Monday and especially the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens. It still looks to remain predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of any SMWs from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while seas on the coastal waters average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to around 4 ft across the northern waters mid-late week.

A low rip risk is forecast today at all beaches, trending toward moderate across northern beaches tomorrow (Saturday).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44089 14 mi61 min 66°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi57 minNE 5.1G7 74°F 82°F30.11
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi57 min0G0 70°F 68°F30.09
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi57 minSE 9.9G12 77°F 84°F30.13
44084 44 mi57 min 71°F 72°F2 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi57 minE 9.9G11 30.15


Wind History for Wachapreague, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA 6 sm63 minNE 0310 smClear73°F72°F94%30.13


Tide / Current for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
   
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Chincoteague Island
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Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.2
2
am
0.1
3
am
0.1
4
am
0.1
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.5
7
am
0.7
8
am
0.7
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.5
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.9
8
pm
1
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.7


Tide / Current for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
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Fri -- 01:20 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.4
3
am
1
4
am
1.8
5
am
2.5
6
am
3
7
am
3.2
8
am
3
9
am
2.5
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
2.2
5
pm
3.2
6
pm
3.9
7
pm
4.3
8
pm
4.2
9
pm
3.6
10
pm
2.8
11
pm
1.9


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