Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:40 AM   Moonset 1:10 AM

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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 353 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening - .
Through 7 am - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Today - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 9 seconds and se 5 ft at 5 seconds. Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain early in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the late morning and early afternoon. Tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 8 seconds. Thu - N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds. Thu night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 8 seconds. Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Sat - E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely. Sun - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ600 353 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system crosses the area early this morning. The same low pressure system then lingers just offshore into Thursday, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend.

FXUS61 KAKQ 150747 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue today, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Mainly dry Thursday, with additional showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of drizzle are expected through much of the morning, with scattered showers this afternoon and evening.

- A few thunderstorms are possible later today across far southern VA and NE NC.

- Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s across northern portions of the area due to low cloud cover, while it will warm to near 80 degrees F in NE NC.

1005mb surface low pressure is slowly tracking NE across SE VA/NE NC early this morning. A trough aloft is still to our west (over the TN Valley), with SW flow aloft over the local area. Between 1 and 5" of rain fell across much of our VA counties yesterday, and the deeper moisture has just about pushed offshore. The steady moderate rain will come to an end across the eastern shore by mid to late morning, with drizzle still expected across much of the area through the AM as the low levels remain saturated even though the best mid-level forcing and moisture has moved to our east. The surface low is progged to track NE along the VA/NC coast today while the trough aloft approaches from the west. Low clouds will be slow to erode across N/NE portions of the area where temps likely get no higher than the mid 60s (and perhaps barely 60F along the MD Atlantic coast), with a bit of clearing expected S of I-64. With cooling temps aloft with the upper trough approaching, additional showers are expected this aftn and evening, with the highest PoPs over the S. There should be enough instability for a few tstms where temps are able to approach 80F (most likely in far srn VA and NE NC).
Can't completely rule out a stronger storm or two (mainly in NE NC).

The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after 10- 11 PM (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx expected.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure briefly move over the area on Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. The flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near 80F inland. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Saturday night, with at least scattered showers possible on Sunday.

- Dry weather returns early next week.

Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW. Scattered showers are possible Saturday morning (especially W), with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms likely from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Not sure how much severe wx we get, but locally heavy rain/localized flooding is definitely a possibility. PWs will once again rise to 1.7-1.8" on Saturday as the system arrives. In addition, the EPS has a 30-50% chc of at least 1" of rain across the area from Saturday through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend, and Sunday will likely be the coolest day of the period (it may struggle to get out of the 60s across parts of the area). Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR CIGs prevail at all terminals except SBY (which should drop to IFR by 09z). The heaviest rain has exited RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG, but moderate rain will move into SBY shortly. The rain will mostly come to an end between 09-12z (except at SBY where showers may linger through much of the morning). However, IFR to occasionally LIFR CIGs and drizzle continue at RIC/ORF/PHF through much of the morning. CIGs try to lift to MVFR at ECG and potentially PHF/ORF late this morning into the early afternoon, while it will likely stay IFR at SBY through the day (and RIC may see a few hours of MVFR CIGs this aftn before CIGs fall back to IFR tonight). Additional showers are possible this aftn/evening (though they will likely be light), with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG.

Outlook: Degraded flight conditions persist through tonight before gradually improving Thursday and Friday (though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu). Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure tracks through the waters this morning. Small craft advisories remain in effect.

- Elevated winds may continue into Thursday as low pressure meanders offshore. Additional SCAs may be necessary.

- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.

Active wx on the marine front this morning with 1005 mb low pressure centered just W of the lower Chesapeake Bay. An area of enhanced winds was observed over the past few hrs w/ several gusts to 35-40 kt. However, winds have decreased some and are generally in the 15- 25 kt w/ gusts to 30 kt. The wind direction has turned southerly S of the NC/VA border, is southeasterly over the srn waters and lower bay, and is easterly across the N. Seas range from 6 ft S to 3 ft N.
Waves are elevated in the 3-5 ft range, but should begin dropping off soon. The low will move NE and cross the waters through the rest of this morning. Winds across the nrn waters will become NE and then N this afternoon, and similarly across the srn waters this evening.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for all marine zones, though made some tweaks based on recent observational trends of the low moving a little faster. Will drop the Currituck Sound SCA within the hour and will drop the upper rivers and upper bay a little sooner than previously indicated. Elevated seas persist through most of Thursday so have extended the SCA N of Parramore Island through most Thursday where confidence is highest in higher seas persisting.
Regarding winds, there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the positioning of the low offshore tonight into Thursday with a closer low leading to a continuation of the elevated winds. Winds have generally increased compared to the previous cycle and N winds 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt are now forecast over the most of the marine area (exception being coastal waters S of the NC/VA border, Currituck Sound, and the upper rivers) tonight through most of Thursday. Additional SCAs may need to be issued later today with the highest confidence in the Chesapeake Bay. These winds may keep seas elevated above 5 ft (especially N) and SCAs may require further extensions here.

Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the position of the low. The 00z ECMWF solution favors a prolonged period of N-NE flow Sunday through Monday as the low tracks just to our S. The GFS tracks the low to our N, keeping winds mainly southerly. Will lean towards the ECMWF solution in the forecast, but will continue to monitor.

HYDROLOGY
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Flood Warnings were issued yesterday for Allen Creek near Boydton and the North Meherrin River near Lunenburg, and levels here are a few feet above minor flood thresholds at this hour. The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville will very likely exceed minor flood stage this evening-tonight, as the Meherrin near South Hill is cresting above 22 ft. Will likely issue a Flood Warning for Lawrenceville later this morning. Also will have to watch levels along the Nottoway for potential flooding in the next day or two.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor flooding is possible with this morning's high tide cycle along the southern shore of the tidal Potomac (mainly for Lewisetta) given the elevated easterly winds. Nuisance flooding may extend further S towards Windmill Point and along the Rappahannock. Coastal flood advisories/statements are in effect here through mid- morning.

Also, issued a coastal flood advisory a few hrs ago for areas adjacent to the Currituck Sound and Bay Bay in VA Beach given rising water levels. However, recent data shows falling water levels and may be able to cancel the advisory sooner here.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ017-102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075- 077.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.

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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:30 AM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:18 PM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:59 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

George Island Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:58 AM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

George Island Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

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