Lake Caroline, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com
Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar   TAF  

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Caroline, VA

June 19, 2024 11:37 PM EDT (03:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 5:42 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1034 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Rest of tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Thu - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Thu night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Sat - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Sat night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.

Mon - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week. Winds will remain light with a southerly component through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 200155 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the northern Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week. A seasonably warm and dry pattern will continue through Friday, before an extended period of hot weather commences this weekend and continues into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

Forecast remains largely on track this evening. Only made a few adjustments to account for latest temperature/dewpoint trends.

Previous Discussion: ~1030mb sfc high pressure is centered well offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon with a 597dm upper high over PA.
This is allowing for seasonable conditions with temperatures in the 80s to around 90 and dew pts in the low-mid 60s. The upper ridge axis starts to slowly shift south this evening-tonight and will be over the local area by early Thu AM. Lows fall into the lower-mid 60s in most areas under a mostly clear sky.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm temperatures on Thursday.

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

- Turning hot on Saturday.

Still pleasant on Thu with dry wx and seasonably warm temperatures as the high pressure ridge remains in control. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer on Thursday when compared to today as the ridge axis at the sfc and aloft continues to shift southward. Temps will top out in the lower 90s with relatively low dew points in the low-mid 60s.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the sfc and upper ridge axis shift to our south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps currently over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle Atlantic. Winds become more southerly across inland areas on Friday, while remaining SSE near the immediate coast. Forecast highs are in the mid 90s in central VA with upper 80s-lower 90s closer to the coast and in NE NC. Dew points will be a little bit higher on Fri (mid 60s) but max heat indices should remain a few degrees below 100F.

By Saturday, temperatures will really start to heat up and dew pts will be on the rise as well. Statistical guidance is supporting high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s to even 100 degrees across inland areas for Sat afternoon (high confidence), with low-mid 90s near the coast and upper 80s to 90 degrees at the beaches. When factoring in dew pts in the mid 60s inland to around 70 coast, this gives heat index values in the low 100s.
Although these values will fall short of Heat Advisory criteria (105+ deg), it will still set the stage for a hot weekend overall and a heat wave that lasts through next week. No rain is expected through the short term period either.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat index values of 105F or greater on Sunday.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered showers or storms on Sun night into Tuesday, but the confidence in widespread rainfall remains low.

-Flash Drought conditions developing.

The main story this weekend will be the heat as the ridge axis becomes more suppressed to our south and the low-level flow becomes SSW area-wide, which will lead to even warmer 850mb temps/low-level thicknesses. Sunday looks to be the hottest day of the period with forecast highs around 100F across central VA with mid-upper 90s near the coast. While the recent dry weather will help to keep dew pts a bit lower than they could be (mid 60s-lower 70s), heat index values of 105F+ are likely on Sunday. These conditions will likely warrant a Heat Advisory for much of the area on Sunday. Other than a chance for isolated to widely scattered tstms Sun evening-Sun night, the dry wx will continue.
Confidence for temps on Monday is lower than the weekend due to the potential for scattered tstms (mainly during the latter part of the day) and more clouds as a weakening frontal system approaches. Highs Monday will most likely be a few degrees lower than they will be on Sunday. Still seasonably hot with lower precip chances on Tuesday as the weakening front washes out near/over the area.

Regardless of any tstm chances in the forecast, it still does not look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see little to no rain through the period. In fact, 13z NBM probabilities for at least 0.50" of total rainfall from Sun-Tue are only 10-40% over the local area. This will only exacerbate the recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC's Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Primarily VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hour.
Mainly clear skies this evening outside of some high clouds.
Patchy fog may try to develop early Thursday morning at primarily SBY and potentially PHF, but this is fairly low confidence at this time. Winds will become light and variable tonight. Similar conditions tomorrow compared to this afternoon with FEW-SCT cumulus developing by the late morning.
Winds will primarily be out of the SE, ranging from 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through most of this week. A few gusts to 20 kt will be possible in the afternoon/evening hours this week.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches.

- Seas and winds become elevated later Sunday and Monday as a trough swings through.

Winds are east/southeasterly around 8-12kt early this afternoon. As is typical with the summer pattern we are experiencing right now with high pressure situated over the region, there could be some slight enhancement to wind speeds during the afternoon hours. Gusts to 20kt will be possible, especially in the lower Bay and along area rivers where evening sea breezes become more established. Seas are 2- 3ft with waves in the Bay of 1-2ft, though there could be spots in the lower Bay of 2-3ft when the winds pick up in the afternoon.

Winds are expected to become more southerly Friday and into Saturday as the high pressure slides further south. The southerly flow becomes more robust later Saturday and Sunday as a trough approaches from the west and drops through the local area on Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this timeframe, especially later Sunday into early Monday if the current trends persist. Seas will also increase to 3-4ft across the southern waters on Sunday with northern coastal waters building to 4-6ft. Waves in the Bay will increase to 2-3ft as well. These elevated seas and waves look to gradually subside later Monday and return to 2-3ft by Tuesday.
Our first rain/storm chances may come Sunday afternoon into Monday as the trough swings through, though activity looks to be scattered as of now.

Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches today with SE swell energy and 2-3 ft nearshore waves. Periods increase to around 8 sec Thursday with waves at the beaches remaining around 3 ft, suggesting a continuing moderate rip risk. An elevated rip risk likely continues through the upcoming weekend (highest threat across the north).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi50 minSSE 6G7 76°F 83°F30.31
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi50 minS 12G14
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi50 minSSE 6G7 75°F 81°F30.35
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi68 minSE 1.9 75°F 30.3668°F


Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      HIDE   Help
toggle option: (graph/table)



Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA 17 sm43 mincalm10 smClear73°F64°F73%30.35
KEZF SHANNON,VA 21 sm22 minSE 0310 smClear75°F64°F69%30.33
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KOFP
   
NEW Forecast page for KOFP (use "back" to return)

Wind History graph: OFP
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help
Massaponax
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.6
2
am
1
3
am
1.8
4
am
2.5
5
am
2.8
6
am
2.9
7
am
2.7
8
am
2.3
9
am
1.8
10
am
1.3
11
am
0.9
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
2.1
6
pm
2.3
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
2
9
pm
1.6
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
0.8


Tide / Current for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   EDIT      HIDE   Help
Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:20 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.6
3
am
2.3
4
am
2.8
5
am
3.1
6
am
3
7
am
2.7
8
am
2.2
9
am
1.6
10
am
1.1
11
am
0.8
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
1.4
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
2.5
7
pm
2.4
8
pm
2
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   
EDIT   HIDE



Wakefield, VA,




NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE