Lake Caroline, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Caroline, VA

March 4, 2024 3:26 AM EST (08:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 6:08 PM
Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 11:26 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 313 Am Est Mon Mar 4 2024

Rest of the overnight - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.

Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Tue - NW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog.

Tue night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.

Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.

Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.

Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.

ANZ500 313 Am Est Mon Mar 4 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure developing near or just offshore of the carolinas will move northward along the east coast tonight into Tuesday, with another slightly stronger area of low pressure following a similar course Wednesday into Thursday. A third and even stronger area of low pressure is likely to develop over the ohio and tennessee river valleys Thursday into Friday, then track near or over the mid- atlantic through the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 040730 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 230 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move off to the northeast overnight. An area of low pressure will move up along the coast and across the region later Monday into Tuesday morning. Another area of low pressure will track over the region Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 935 PM EST Sunday...

Late this evening, sfc high pressure was right over the area or centered NNE of the region. Also, sfc low pressure was located just off the coastal Carolinas. FEW to SCT SC or SCT/BKN CI well in advance of the low, were affecting the CWA Temps ranged from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Clouds will be increasing from SSE to NNW overnight into Mon morning, as the low starts to lift nwrd.
Fog and/or stratus will be developing offshore, and likely move inland overnight into Mon morning also. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s.

The low is still expected to track due north over eastern NC, then coastal VA and MD, late Mon into Tue morning. High temps on Mon will be warmest across south-central and central VA, where cloud cover will be thinner with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lower to mid 60s are forecast to the east of I-95 with mid 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coast with cool onshore flow. Pops will increase Mon morning into Mon night from SSE to NNW. The highest PoPs occur Mon evening into the overnight hours. Highest QPF from this system will be focused along the coast with storm totals ranging from 0.25-0.5" for the Piedmont, 0.5-0.75" for the I-95 corridor, and 0.75-1" to the east.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...

PoPs decrease from SW to NE Tue morning with lingering slight chance PoPs across the MD Eastern Shore through the afternoon.
Breaks in the clouds are likely during the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s S and SW, mid 60s along the I-64 corridor and upper 50s to low 60s expected north and east. Should be mostly dry Tuesday night but moisture increases again ahead of the next area of low pressure approaching from the SW. Lows overnight will be similar to Monday night, generally in the upper 40s to low 50s from N to S.

The next storm system will approach the area from the SW and likely be a little stronger than Monday night's storm system.
Most likely time for the rain to move in will be late Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning as the low pressure tracks over the region. Pops have been increased to around 80%.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

Another area of low pressure approaches from the SW on Wednesday, crossing the area Wednesday night. Models have come in to slightly better agreement with respect to timing of the low, but are still differing on the track with the GFS taking the low further inland, closer to the mountains, while the ECMWF and Canadian keep the low closer to the coast. The further inland track of the GFS would bring warmer air into the region, while the coastal solutions keep temperatures cooler. Due to the model disagreement, continued using the blended model approach (NBM).
The highest rain chances will likely be during the Wednesday afternoon-night timeframe across the region. It should be noted that if the low tracks closer to the GFS solution, we will have the potential to see thunder chances spread further north compared to the current forecast which has thunder confined across far S VA and NC.

High pressure briefly returns late in the work week before another low pressure system likely approaches the region next weekend.
Temperatures trend slightly cooler later in the week, but will generally remain in the 50s and 60s during the day with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 730 PM EST Sunday...

FEW or SCT SC or SCT to BKN CI was streaming across the area this evening. Fog and/or stratus is expected to develop over the Atlc Ocean and move inland overnight, affect mainly SBY, PHF and ORF. Also, there could be MVFR CIGs that could move in or develop over the ern TAF sites. Otherwise, high clouds will be spreading in from the south ahead of a coastal low. Conditions will begin to deteriorate early Mon morning for NE NC, then conditions will be deteriorating to MVFR then IFR over the remainder of the region from later Mon morning into Mon evening, as rain spreads in ahead of the low.

Outlook: Lower CIGs /VSBYS will affect the area Mon night into Tue morning. Mainly VFR conditions will return for Tue aftn into early Wed morning, before more rain and lower CIGs /VSBYs are expected for Wed into Thu morning.

MARINE
As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Winds are still fairly light early this morning with a weak pressure gradient in place over the region. Have continued the SCAs for the coastal waters even with seas mostly down to ~4 ft, since they will quickly increase again later today. A weak trough of low pressure has developed off the NC/SC coast, and this will slowly deepen later today while lifting N into the local waters. Meanwhile, strong sfc high pressure over Quebec (>1030mb)
will become centered from the coast of Maine to Atlantic Canada by late this afternoon into tonight. This pattern often over- performs with the model winds typically underdone and it seems as if the 00Z runs are catching up now w/ increasing winds compared to previous runs. The latest wind probs are significantly higher with respect to the chc for 18 kt sustained and 25 kt gusts to the lower Bay and Currituck sound by this afternoon so with this in mind, have added SCAs for the lower Bay and the Currituck sound for Mon afternoon/evening. Have also added the Bay N of New Pt Comfort as well as the lower James (starting late in the aftn and lasting at least into the evening).

ENE winds will be strongest in the northern coastal waters ahead of the low late this evening at ~20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Given the increased onshore winds, expect seas will climb back to 5-7 ft, potentially to ~8 ft out at 20NM offshore across the MD coastal waters. The low is expected to pass over local waters early Tuesday morning. As the low passes, winds drop back to 10-15kt and shift to the WNW, then further relax to 5-10kt and become SE by Tuesday evening. SCAs have been extended into Tuesday afternoon for the ocean to cover lingering 5ft seas.
May see a brief period of benign conditions Tues night- Wed morning before another low pressure system impacts the region Wed afternoon through Thursday night. This one will likely require SCAs for most if not all of the waters, with a low chc for seeing Gales over the coastal waters.

HYDROLOGY
As of 815 PM EST Sunday...

Updated to cancel the Flood Warning at Stony Creek, with the expected crest now forecast to remain more than 0.5 ft below the flood stage of 15 ft. The Flood Warning (for continued minor flooding) remains in effect through at least Monday afternoon at Lawrenceville.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi57 min 0G1.9 48°F 49°F30.24


Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA 17 sm32 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds45°F43°F93%30.25
KEZF SHANNON,VA 21 sm11 mincalm10 smOvercast48°F48°F100%30.24
Link to 5 minute data for KOFP


Wind History from OFP
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   
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Massaponax
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Mon -- 12:58 AM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:24 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:05 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2
1
am
2.1
2
am
2
3
am
1.8
4
am
1.4
5
am
0.9
6
am
0.6
7
am
0.3
8
am
0.3
9
am
0.5
10
am
1
11
am
1.7
12
pm
2.3
1
pm
2.5
2
pm
2.4
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
1.8
5
pm
1.3
6
pm
0.9
7
pm
0.6
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
0.4
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.9



Tide / Current for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
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Mon -- 12:37 AM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:23 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:44 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:22 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2.2
1
am
2.3
2
am
2.1
3
am
1.7
4
am
1.2
5
am
0.7
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.3
8
am
0.4
9
am
0.8
10
am
1.4
11
am
2.2
12
pm
2.6
1
pm
2.7
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1.2
6
pm
0.8
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
0.4
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
1.4




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,



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