Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Church, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:47PM Friday August 23, 2019 9:12 AM EDT (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 12:51PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 634 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 2 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds late. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning. Showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 634 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front approaches from the west through this morning and crosses the area later today into early Saturday. High pressure builds from the north Saturday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Church, VA
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location: 37.98, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231107
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
707 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly cross the mid-atlantic region today
into tonight. The front is expected to stall along the carolina
coast Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds north of the
area. Low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary
Sunday night into Monday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Friday...

current WV imagery places a trough from the great lakes to ern
canada, with a broad ridge from the southeast CONUS into the
sub-tropical WRN atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is
located in vicinity of the ohio valley, with high pressure
located well off the southeast coast. Partly to mostly cloudy,
warm, and humid early this morning with temperatures of 70-75f
and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The trough over the great lakes will continue to dig swd today
pushing the cold front into the mid-atlantic by this aftn. On
average, numerical models forecast 1000-1500 j kg of mlcape
across central portions of the area, with 1500-2500 j kg across
srn SE portions. This combined with 25-35kt of 0-6km bulk shear
should allow tstms to organize into some discrete cells and line
segments, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts
this aftn. After this initial severe threat, the main hazard
will be heavy rainfall. Pw values are expected to reach
2.0-2.25", with a slow moving front and a deep warm cloud layer.

23 00z href has a rather strong signal for some excessive
rainfall across central SRN va and NE nc late this aftn into
this evening. The threat is not widespread enough to warrant a
flash flood watch, plus much of this area is ~10-25% or 25- 50%
of normal for rainfall the past 14 days.

Not as hot but still humid today with high temperatures ranging
from the upper 70s to ~80f n, to the mid upper 80s S and se,
with dewpoints still in the 70s. The cold front gradually drops
through the area later tonight with pops diminishing from NW to
se. Low temperatures range from the low mid 60s n, to the low
70s se.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 400 am edt Friday...

the front is expected to settle near the carolina coast by
Saturday as high pressure builds N of the region. Low-level
moisture will be slow to clear over NE nc where pops remain
40-60%. Additionally clouds will likely be slow to clear across
the N with NE flow off a relatively warm ocean. Highs Saturday
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80f and could be a
few degrees cooler if rain lingers longer.

By Saturday night and Sunday the high will continue to build to
the n. However, models suggest an inverted through could
sharpen along the frontal boundary (nam is most aggressive). If
this were to occur there is the potential for anomalous easterly
flow with the high to the N and this could spread some bands of
heavier rain into ERN nc, some of which could inch N of the
albemarle sound. Lows Saturday night range from the upper 50s to
low 60s n, to the low 70s se. Highs Sunday are forecast to be
in the upper 70s to around 80f.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 4 pm edt Wednesday...

the extended period (Monday) will start with below normal temps as
high pressure remains centered over the canadian maritimes with low
pressure off the nc outer banks. There is a chc of a few
showers tstms (mainly across southern eastern portions of the cwa)
on mon. Highs mainly in the low 80s on mon. Expect slowly warming
temperatures throughout next week as the aforementioned area of high
pressure retreats offshore and the low off the outer banks moves to
our northeast. Mainly dry on Tue (although an isolated aftn-evening
tstm cannot be ruled out over the area... Mainly south west). There
is a better chc for aftn-evening showers tstms on Wed as strong low
pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks over ontario and the trailing cold front
slowly approaches the region from the nw. Have pops of 30-35% W 20%
e Wed aftn-wed evening. The frontal boundary potentially lingers
over the area on thu, so kept slight chc low-end chc pops in the
grids (highest during the aftn-evening).

Highs in the mid 80s on Tue warming into the upper 80s by wed-thu.

Low Mon night mainly in the 60s. Slightly warmer Tue night-thu night
with lows in the upper 60s NW low 70s se.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
As of 200 am edt Friday...

a cold front is pushing into the mountains as of 11z, with high
pressure centered well off the southeast coast.VFR conditions
prevail under sct high clouds, with a 5-10kt SW wind. The cold
front will advance to the southeast today, with the leading edge
reaching ric and sby by 16-19z, phf orf 21-00z, and ecg 00-03z.

Low pressure will track along the boundary and showers tstms
are expected to become widespread, primarily after 19z.

MVFR ifr vsby is expected in heavy rain, with MVFR and
potentially ifr CIGS developing by this evening in NE flow
behind the front. A few strong wind gusts are also possible with
the initial tstms this aftn. Degraded flight conditions are
expected to continue later tonight with a 20-30% chc of showers
from ric-sby, and 30-60% over SE va NE nc with some embedded
tstms over NE nc.

The cold front settles along the carolina coast Saturday into
Sunday. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front by
Sunday night, before lifting to the NE Monday into Tuesday. A
chc of showers will continue, with the highest probability over
se va NE nc.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Friday...

a cold front located just north of the local waters will slowly
drop south through today before slowing down further nearly
stalling near the va nc this evening. The front finally settles
south of the region by Saturday. Ahead of the front, SW will
range around 10 to 15 knots. Behind the front, winds shift to
the N and eventually NE at around 10 to 15 knots. Seas today and
tonight will generally range from 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the
bay around 1 to 2 feet.

As surface high pressure builds in from the north and low
pressure develops along the southeast coast on Saturday, ne
winds will likely increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25
knots. Small craft advisories will likely be needed late
Saturday through Tuesday as onshore flow persists. NE flow will
allow for seas to build to 5 to 6 feet (potentially 7 feet out
20 nm) and waves at the mouth of the bay to build to as high as
4 to 5 feet. Winds and seas look to diminish by mid-week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz cmf
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 21 mi42 min 75°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 26 mi54 min W 4.1 G 8 1014.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 29 mi60 min N 5.1 G 7 77°F 82°F1015.1 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 36 mi60 min S 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 77°F1015.3 hPa
OCSM2 37 mi192 min 2 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 38 mi54 min 1015.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi60 min W 5.1 G 7 74°F 83°F1014.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi60 min NW 5.1 G 7 78°F 84°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi18 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F72°F74%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9W7W8SW7W86S6S12S9S7S7SW6W5SW11W5W4W3CalmCalmCalmS5--W7
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S11SW15S11S5SW8S6S8W7SW4W4CalmW6W6W5W4W7W9
2 days agoW3E4E5E7SE5S6S7SE7SE5SE4SE4SE7S8W14
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W9NW5SE4S7S3S7S8S8SW9SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Shelltown
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.91.21.72.12.32.221.71.30.90.70.60.71.11.72.22.62.72.62.31.91.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Pocomoke City
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:32 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:05 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.60.70.91.11.41.51.51.41.20.90.70.50.50.60.81.11.51.71.81.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.