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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1034 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will settle north of the mid-atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed late Friday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 030152 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 952 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly builds south from the Great Lakes and into the local area through Tuesday, and remains over the region through Thursday bringing dry and warm conditions. A cold front will approach from the west late this week into early weekend bringing cooler and more autumn-like conditions.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 950 PM EDT Monday...

Late this evening, 1024mb sfc high pressure was centered over NW PA. The sky was clear or mostly clear across the area with temps ranging from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. The high will build ESE closer to the local area overnight, maintaining a clear or mostly clear sky and a calm to very light wind. Lows will range from the mid 50s over the Piedmont, to the lower 60s over coastal regions of SE VA/NE NC. Very patchy shallow ground fog will be possible overnight/early Tue morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Similar conditions Tuesday compared to today with high pressure (surface and aloft) centered near the region. Mostly sunny (although there may be more afternoon CU) with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast with light onshore flow. Lows Tuesday night again will generally be in the mid to upper 50s (lower 50s in typically cooler spots) under a mostly clear sky. High pressure nudges offshore Wednesday but still prevails over the region. High temperatures range from the upper 70s along the coast with light onshore flow, to the lower 80s inland, with some mid 80s possible over central VA. High clouds begin to increase some Wednesday night, with temperatures again ranging from the low- mid 50s inland to upper 50s/lower 60s at the coast. High pressure retreats to the NE Thursday as weak low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. Partly sunny with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

A vigorous upper trough digs across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday pushing a cold front toward the Mid- Atlantic region. The general consensus is for this front to push through the area later Friday through early Saturday, with limited moisture (although the 02/12z ECMWF remains slower with a Saturday frontal passage). At this time, the best chance for rain appears to be later Friday into Friday night with ~20 to 35% PoPs (best rain chances northern/eastern half of the area).
Highs will trend down into the 70s most areas Friday, except lower 80s into far SE VA and NE NC. This upper trough is expected to build across the East Coast by next weekend with the cold front pushing offshore (500mb heights as low as -2 to -2.5 st dev per 02/12z GEFS/EPS). Highs Saturday range from the upper 60s NW to the upper 70s SE after morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Likely feeling even more "fall-like" Sunday with temperatures starting out in the 40s for much of the area away from the coast, and highs only in the low to mid 60s.
Sunday night/early Monday morning will feature temperatures dropping back into the 40s away from the immediate coast, and a few upper 30s are possible in favored cold spots in the Piedmont. Continued cool and pleasant Monday with high temperatures ranging from the lower/mid 60s NW to the upper 60s SE.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 745 PM EDT Monday...

Sfc high pressure was centered over NW PA as of 00z this evening. The wind was NE 3-9kt under a clear or mostly clear sky.
High pressure will slowly build in from the N tonight into Tue.
VFR conditions will prevail outside of any shallow ground fog ~10-12z Tue. The wind will be calm to very light tonight, and then NE 5-10kt (locally 8-11kt at ECG) Tue with FEW-SCT aftn CU.

VFR conditions continue Tue night through Thu outside of any patchy ground fog that may develop overnight through ~12z period, as high pressure will be over the region, then shifts off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. A cold front approaches from the W Fri into Sat bringing a minimal chance of rain showers.

MARINE
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Conditions continue to improve as strong high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic. Winds are N-NNE at around 10kt with gusts to 15kt.
Seas are improving with latest buoy obs showing 4-5ft N of the NC/VA border and 6-7ft off the NC coast. SCAs continue in the coastal waters into tomorrow for lingering 5ft seas, but may be able to let go of a few zones early based on recent trends. The SCA in the mouth of the bay will expire at 7pm.

High pressure will sit over the region until late in the week. Winds will generally be out of the NE at 10kt or less through at least Thursday. Seas will drop to 3-4ft by Wednesday morning. Waves will be around 1ft for most locations and 2-3ft in the lower bay. High pressure moves offshore late in the week as a cold front approaches.
Winds will become NW over the weekend and SCA conditions are likely.
Exact strength and timing are still uncertain.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

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Shelltown
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Mon -- 03:08 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Pocomoke City
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Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:47 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

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