Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crisfield, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Expect near average temperatures, with very humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms.

2) A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek.
Expect near average temperatures, with humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front beginning to push into NW VA early this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are beginning to develop along this front and are expected to gradually move SE into this evening with the slow FROPA. An additional area of scattered storms has developed across extreme SE VA/NE NC in association with an upper level trough centered across the Southeast. This convection is expected to move NE through the afternoon before tapering off this evening.

Previous Discussion

A shortwave associated with an upper trough will lift across the area today, leading to additional convective development today.
Guidance has trended down some on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, and depict the highest PoPs and QPF across the SE portion of the area. The trough weakens further Tuesday and Wednesday, but scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall remain expected as deep moisture lingers despite weakening SW flow aloft. The main catalyst for convection will be where the front associated with the slow-moving low across the NE ends up each day, which will ultimately dictate the coverage and location of any convective development. The front looks like it may drift across our area on Tuesday, which could bring more shower and thunderstorm coverage than previously thought, but will continue to monitor any trends in the upcoming forecast cycles.

Given the environment, and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. However, the severe threat should stay low due to poor mid-level lapse rates, a near-saturated vertical column, and weak shear. Days 1-3 (Monday through Wednesday) are in a Marginal ERO as the overall flash flood risk is more isolated in nature. High temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of showers/tstms, though any breaks in the cloud cover may allow temperatures to briefly overperform.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend.

Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased convective coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s, making for quite humid conditions. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees for a good portion of the area Thursday through Saturday, but due to temperatures remaining near normal, heat headlines are not expected at this time, though the dew points will cause it to feel quite uncomfortable.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

CIGs were mainly MVFR/VFR this afternoon with an improvement to predominantly VFR CIGs expected later this afternoon into this evening. Scattered storms were noted across extreme SE VA/NE NC early this afternoon. This convection should move NE through the afternoon before dissipating this evening. Given greater instability across NE NC and the presence of lightning with current convection, have added thunderstorms to the ECG TAF for the next few hours. Confidence in thunder diminishes farther north. As such, have kept showers mentioned in the TAFs for the other terminals. A cold front approaches from the NW this afternoon, slowly moving into the local area later this afternoon into tonight before stalling near the VA/NC border.
Scattered showers and storms have already begun to develop along the front and are expected to continue to slowly push SE into tonight. As such, shower chances linger through late tonight inland. However, confidence in thunder at RIC was too low to add to the TAF at this time. Additional scattered to widespread showers (with embedded storms) are likely Tue afternoon mainly along and south of I-64. Otherwise, CIGs drop to mainly MVFR after midnight tonight, lingering through the day on Tue.
Additionally, some model guidance suggests that IFR CIGs are possible at ORF/PHF from around 10-14z Tue. As such, have added IFR CIGs to the TAFs for those two terminals.

Outlook: Elevated shower/storm chances continue through mid- week, with periodic flight restrictions lingering, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain. A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week, with a somewhat lower coverage of late afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and storms Thu-Fri.

MARINE
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all but the upper rivers this morning.

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail from tonight through late week outside of local thunderstorm influences.

Low pressure is centered near Lake Ontario with a cold front extending to the south into the higher Appalachian terrain while surface high pressure remains anchored well offshore. SSW winds average 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay/lower James River and Currituck Sound. Offshore, SW winds are 15-25 kt with seas 4-6 ft near the coast and 6-8 ft in the 20-60nm zones. No changes have been made to the ongoing SCA headlines with the bay/river/sound SCAs still set to expire at 10AM as winds decrease back into the 10-15 kt range. Seas will be slower to subside from S to N this afternoon into the evening. Continued southerly flow and generally quiet marine conditions are then expected from tonight through late week as high pressure lingers offshore. Showers and storms will remain in the forecast each day but with little to no confidence in specific timing or coverage. Widespread organized convection is not expected, though locally degraded marine conditions are likely to accompany the stronger storms through the week.

There is a High Rip current risk at the northern beaches today with a Moderate Rip risk for the southern beaches. There will also likely be moderate to strong longshore current at all beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.