Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Concord, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday December 5, 2019 2:42 PM PST (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:37PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 155 Pm Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Rest of today..SE winds around 5 kt.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 15 kt.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Showers likely.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 20 kt. A chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds up to 10 kt. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 155 Pm Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Southerly winds will continue to steadily strengthen into tonight and tomorrow morning ahead of an advancing cold front. Gale force winds are expected by early Friday and persist through Friday night. Moderate northwest swell will gradually build to around 10 to 15 feet Friday over the northern waters then spread south across the coastal waters over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Concord, CA
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location: 38, -122     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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FXUS66 KSTO 051152 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 352 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Scattered light showers today before another winter storm will bring periods of rain and mountain snow and hazardous travel Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION.

Just a brief break in the wet wx for today as short wave ridging builds over the CWA in the wake of the departing low pressure system to our east and the next mid latitude cyclone near 140W. Lingering showers noted in the Sierra and over the 80/50 corridor with the Colfax snow profiler showing the snow level around 7 kft. Although many areas will not see precip today, models suggest some light WAA precip may develop or spread Nwd in our CWA over areas mainly to the north of the I-80 corridor during the day. Topographic/orographic influences from the upslope Sly flow from the rising 5H heights may be enough to squeeze out a few hundredths. Any partial clearing early this morning will be short-lived, as the GFS simulated satellite indicates clouds just offshore will overspread Norcal during the day.

The next winter storm (mentioned above near 140W) is shaping up to be another impactful winter storm that will bring hazardous mountain travel Friday into the weekend. U.S. West Coast AR Landfall Tool shows a moderate TPW plume (AR) at 37-41 deg N latitude putting the 80/50 corridor right in its path. Heavy mountain snow with significant travel impacts is expected to begin late Friday for elevations above 6000-6500 ft. Models have been slowing down the onset of the precip in our CWA, e.g. BUFKIT for BLU begins precip around 05z Sat (or 9 pm PST Fri). Will continue the Winter Storm Watch as another model run or two could assist in locking in better timing of the precip.

Another soaking rain is expected with 1 to 3 inches of rain forecast for the Valley and 4 to over 6 inches of liquid precip for the Nrn mtns/W Slope Sierra, with as much as 7 inches in Shasta Co. (The QPF follows fairly closely with the ECMWF ensemble spread for the Valley sites, but exceeds the mean of the ensemble for BlU by about an inch and a half.) Once again this storm has the potential for several feet of snow to accumulate over the high Sierra. Snow levels will be above 6 Kft at the onset, and then should lower below 6 Kft on Sun as the upper low drops Swd over our Norcal. Satellite indicates a well developed comma cloud (baroclinic leaf) with lots of cold, unstable air associated with it. As this colder air approaches our area Sat, and moves over CWA on Sun, we have introduced a chance of thunderstorms in the Valley and W Slope Sierra foothills. Small hail/graupel is likely with these storms as indicated by the "thin CAPE" on the forecast soundings. Precip forecast to wind down Sun nite, followed by dry wx to start the work week.

Additionally, Sly pressure gradients should tighten dramatically with the approaching surface front leading to WAD criteria for the Valley as a 50+ kt LLJ (NAM 925 mbs winds) develops Fri evening. Breezy to windy conditions should last into Sat. Similar to the last event, the isothermal lapse rates caused by the WAA will preclude downward momentum transfer of all of the LLJ wind. As a rule-of- thumb, the peak wind gusts end up to be about 2/3 of the 925 mbs winds in these isothermal profile cases. JHM

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday).

Ensemble and model guidance hold firm on ridge building over the Pacific Northwest early in the week. This will lead to at least a short stretch of dry weather, with the potential for some fog Tuesday morning. Looking towards to the mid to late portion of the work week, model and ensemble guidance continue to deviate from each other. Much like yesterday afternoon's runs, there is uncertainty as to when and where the next trough sets up. Some ensemble members suggest we could see light precip over northern California, with the NBM being one of them. Ended up going a blend of the NBM to get some PoP north of I-80 for Wednesday and then over the Cascades and Coastal range for Thursday. Confidence is low on this occurring for the time being, thus we'll be keeping a close eye on how the models and ensembles handle the situation.

Temperatures are forecast to be within +/-5 degrees or so of their seasonal average for both daytime highs and morning lows.

AVIATION.

Stratus and patchy areas of dense fog have been observed at the TAF sites this morning. With moisture lingering expect to see periods of local IFR/LIFR with low cigs and BR through the morning. Showers currently linger in the Sierra this morning but will become more focused in the northern portion of the Valley and coastal and Cascade mountain later today.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 4 mi55 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 53°F 53°F1017.8 hPa
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 7 mi61 min ENE 5.1 G 7 54°F 53°F1018.1 hPa53°F
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 7 mi61 min ESE 6 G 8 55°F 1017.9 hPa
UPBC1 7 mi61 min ENE 9.9 G 12
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 14 mi118 min SE 6 56°F 1019 hPa55°F
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 15 mi61 min E 13 G 17 56°F 1017.2 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 20 mi61 min W 2.9 G 4.1 58°F 1017.7 hPa
LNDC1 21 mi55 min Calm G 1 56°F 1017.2 hPa
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 22 mi55 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 1017.2 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 22 mi61 min Calm G 1
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 22 mi55 min 53°F
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 22 mi55 min 54°F
OBXC1 23 mi55 min 55°F 55°F
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 25 mi61 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1016.4 hPa
PXSC1 25 mi55 min 56°F 56°F
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 25 mi56 min NW 2.9 56°F 1018 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 28 mi61 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 54°F1017.5 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 36 mi55 min N 1 G 1.9 58°F 55°F1017.9 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 37 mi73 min 53°F4 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 48 mi33 min SE 14 G 18 55°F 54°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Chicago, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord, Buchanan Field, CA3 mi50 minNE 66.00 miOvercast with Haze56°F51°F84%1016.5 hPa
Fairfield / Travis Air Force Base, CA20 mi1.7 hrsESE 710.00 miOvercast with Haze57°F51°F81%1019.3 hPa
Napa, Napa County Airport, CA21 mi49 minE 1010.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1016.5 hPa
Livermore, Livermore Municipal Airport, CA23 mi50 minENE 85.00 miFog/Mist55°F52°F90%1017.3 hPa
Hayward, Hayward Air Terminal, CA24 mi49 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1018.1 hPa
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA24 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCCR

Wind History from CCR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4N3N5NE3NE5NE4NE4NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S3SE4--E45NE5NE6
1 day agoE4E53CalmCalmN4NE10N7SW3S5N3NE4N5CalmN4NE6N6NE4NE3NE4NE8N4N6N3
2 days ago--NE5634633NE5E334E6E4CalmSE33Calm5E4NE6E8E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chicago, Suisun Bay, California
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Port Chicago
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:45 AM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM PST     4.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:45 PM PST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM PST     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.40.30.61.32.12.93.74.14.13.732.31.71.21.11.41.92.52.93.13.12.7

Tide / Current Tables for Stake Point .9 Mi NNW, Suisun Bay, California Current
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Stake Point .9 Mi NNW
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:21 AM PST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:29 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM PST     0.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:41 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:44 PM PST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:48 PM PST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:09 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.50.80.90.90.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.40.50.50.40.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sacramento, CA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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