Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenbackville, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

Afternoon wx analysis shows a weakening upper low over KY/TN/GA, with southerly flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Yesterday's shortwave/stationary front is now well to our north. While skies are partly to mostly cloudy with cumulus, there are only a few showers on radar (mainly in SE VA/NE NC) thanks to height rises from the building ridge offshore and no boundaries/well defined forcing mechanism nearby. Convection may increase in coverage a little bit during the next couple of hours across the southeast, though the vast majority of the area should stay dry. While widespread flooding is not expected, even a quick half inch or inch of precip may be enough to cause localized issues in areas that saw so much rainfall yesterday. The drying trend continues on Thursday with even more height rises as the ridge offshore builds to the west. There is only a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm during the aftn/evening (mainly in the Piedmont). With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on Thursday with upper 90s- low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 30%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 20-30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 105 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions have returned to the terminals early this aftn with SCT-BKN cumulus around 3000-3500 ft AGL. Low-end VFR cumulus prevails through the evening before dissipating tonight.
Isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm) are possible across the area, with the highest chances at ORF/ECG. Have maintained PROB30 groups for these two terminals as confidence remains low. The most likely timing for precip is 18-23z. Mainly dry for the remainder of the period.

Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Thu/Fri/Sat.

MARINE
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

This afternoon, a warm front has lifted north of the local waters.
Meanwhile, expansive high pressure is centered well offshore and is building into the local waters. Winds are primarily out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots.
Nearshore seas are averaging 2 to 3 feet while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are averaging 1 to 2 feet. Bermuda high will slowly drift closer to the area late this week into the weekend, allowing for a more typical summer setup over the waters. S to SW winds will generally average 10 to 15 knots throughout the period, with S to SE afternoon seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances persist into the weekend, though chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into the weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.