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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1028 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 3 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of rain late this morning and early afternoon, then a chance of rain late. Patchy dense fog late this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 6 seconds. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ600 1028 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure will remain centered offshore through early Sunday. A warm front will lift north through the area into tonight, as weak low pressure lifts northeast along the boundary. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the great lakes region tonight into Sunday, pushing a cold front across the region later Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 021746 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A chance for more rain is expected later today through Sunday morning, as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Sunday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 945 AM EST Saturday...

Late this morning, the warm front/stationary boundary continues to retreat a bit to the NW, with a light SW wind across most of the area. The flow aloft is SW on the east side of a broad upper trough. Fog has lifted in most inland areas, but patchy dense fog remains in place across the central VA Piedmont...and in areas near the mid/upper Ches Bay. Dry wx prevails at this hour, but expect isolated to widely scattered showers to move into srn VA/NE NC by midday or early aftn as deep-layered moisture increases as a srn stream low pressure system approaches from the SW. Mild (highs in the 60s-70F) with upper 50s-mid 60s dew points in most areas today under mostly cloudy- overcast skies. It should remain dry north of I-64, with showers possible through the aftn in S/SE VA and NE NC. While there will be a small amount of sfc-based instability, am not confident enough to include thunder in the forecast attm.

The sky will remain cloudy across the region through tonight, due to continued moist low levels. The above mentioned srn stream area of low pressure will track NE from the Gulf coast states into the Mid Atlantic from this evening-Sun morning, bringing a better potential for a more substantial rain (0.25-0.5" possible) across the region starting later today.
However, most of the rain will fall tonight. Likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%) are forecast at this time. Again, there will be a small amount of instability even during the night, which will result in brief heavy downpours (as PWs climb to 1.4-1.7"). In addition, that weak boundary is progged to move back south a bit and settle across the area tonight (likely stalling N of I-64) as the main sfc low approaches. Fog is likely along and to the north of the boundary, and also across most of the marine area. Locally dense fog is again possible.
Lows tonight will range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EST Saturday...

Low pressure will push NNE of the area during Sun followed by a cold frontal passage Sun evening into Sun night. Milder temps are expected again on Sun, as highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, with some clearing expected from NW to SE later in the aftn. Partly cloudy Sun night with lows ranging through the 40s. A shortwave trough will approach from the W Mon, then swings across the area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited, but the trough is rather vigorous, so at least an increase in clouds are expected, with just an isolated shower possible. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Becoming clear or mostly clear Mon night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 355 AM EST Saturday...

Dry weather is expected for Tue into Tue evening, as high pressure builds across the region. Another shortwave trough will swing across the region Tue night into early Wed aftn, and could produce a few showers. Then, high pressure will build into and over the region for late Wed night into Thu night, then slides off the Mid Atlc/SE Coast during Fri. Cooler than normal temps are expected for Wed and Thu, then closer to normal readings for Fri.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Saturday...

IFR CIGs are hanging on at RIC (with LIFR at SBY) early this aftn, while conditions have improved to MVFR/VFR at ORF/ECG/PHF.
In addition, a few showers have moved into SE VA/NE NC. The improved conditions will be short-lived, as CIGs will drop to IFR-LIFR this evening/tonight as low pressure approaches from the SW. This feature will bring scattered-numerous showers to the area (highest PoPs are from 03-12z). There is a very low (but non-zero) chance of thunder tonight. In addition, will have to watch for fog tonight, which could result in VSBYs of 1SM or less. IFR-LIFR conditions (and isolated-scattered showers) will likely last into early Sun aftn before gradually improving late in the day as the low pressure system exits to the NE.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sun night through Tue, with an upper level disturbance bringing some clouds and maybe an isolated shower Mon aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 705 AM EST Saturday...

Went ahead and added Marine Dense Fog Advy for New Point Comfort north (including the Rappahannock River) in the Bay and from Wachapreague north on the coastal water side. Could see further deterioration to VSBY in the lower Bay and central coastal waters around the VA Capes later this morning. Will continue to monitor.

Previous discussion follows...

As of 355 AM EST Saturday

Winds are SSW 10-15 kt this morning, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt in the lower bay and lower James River. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore, closer to ~4 ft offshore in 5-7 second SSE swell. Waves 1-2 ft.
Winds remain out of the SSW today, as a weak warm front lingers over the lower bay and central and southern coastal zones and a weak sfc wave lifts NNE. High-res CAMs continues to indicate that marine dense fog could become a more widespread issue over the waters around and especially just after sunrise.

Predominate winds remain SSW tonight, as boundary becomes a bit more diffuse with time into Sun morning. Boundary lifts north early Sunday morning, which could turn winds briefly E-SE north of New Point Comfort in the bay and north of Wachapreague on the Atlantic waters side, though speeds remain sub-SCA throughout this period.
Winds back to the SSW again later Sun morning through Sunday evening. A cold front crosses the area Sunday evening with W-NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the coastal waters) by Monday afternoon and night behind the front. Once again, expect most areas should stay sub-SCA through this period, with in-house wind probs showing <20% probability of winds meeting or exceeding SCA thresholds through Monday evening. Widespread SCA conditions are not forecast until next Wednesday-Thursday behind a second, stronger cold frontal passage. At that time, NW winds look to increase to 15- 25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt possible.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-635-650-652.

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Franklin City
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Sat -- 12:55 AM EST     0.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:58 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:07 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonrise
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Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chincoteague Island
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Sat -- 05:23 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 AM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:20 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chincoteague Island, USCG Station, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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