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FXUS63 KDDC 110514 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1114 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances (50-70%) remain possible across extreme southwest Kansas late Wednesday into early Thursday.

- A cooling trend with temperatures expected to return to seasonal levels is expected by mid-week.



SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening in eastern Colorado.

Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Monday as a prevailing northwest flow aloft weakens while much drier air in the lower levels dominates the Western High Plains. Temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight as westerly downsloping helps push H85 temperatures up well above 0C across westerly Kansas. Combined with a little increased clouds, look for lows generally down into the 20s(F). The ongoing warming trend continues into Monday with downsloping reinforcing a gradually warming air mass across southwest/central Kansas. Expect widespread afternoon highs in the lower/mid 50s(F).

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Rain chances (50-70%) late Wednesday into early Thursday remain in the forecast as medium range ensembles continue to indicate an upper level trough of low pressure dropping south-southeast out of the Pacific Northwest, though a little farther south into the Desert Southwest as well as the Four Corners Region, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains mid-week.
Meanwhile, prevailing east-southeast upsloping will provide modest moisture transport into western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and southern Kansas as the system approaches. Sufficient support aloft combined with increased lift will provide more favorable conditions for rain development in the South Plains late Wednesday, with rain then potentially spreading northward into southwest Kansas Wednesday night. Considering the slightly deeper track of the upper level system, the best chance of precip remains to be more focused in extreme southwest Kansas where the NBM 4.1 now shows a 50-70% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by Thursday morning while the GEFS 31-Ensemble Members indicate a 70-90% probability of precipitation exceeding 0.1 of an inch across extreme southwest Kansas with potential amounts steadily dropping off northeastward toward the I-70 corridor.

More seasonal temperatures are forecast in the first few days of the period as a prevailing east-southeasterly upslope flow reinforces a cooler air mass across the area with H85 temperatures hovering generally around 0C to 5C across southwest/central Kansas. Expect afternoon highs generally in the 40s(F) to near 50F Tuesday afternoon, then more entrenched 40s(F) Wednesday/Thursday due to mostly cloudy/overcast skies and possible areas of precip.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A weak surface boundary crossing southwest Kansas overnight will result in a west to northwest wind at 10 knots or less. Wind speeds are not expected to pick up much, if any at all, during the day as a surface ridge builds into western Kansas. Only mid to high level moisture is forecast to accompany an upper level trough which will be crossing western Kansas late today/early tonight so VFR conditions will continue.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 25 58 27 48 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 23 56 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 25 57 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 24 57 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 22 58 28 45 / 0 0 0 0 P28 25 59 30 52 / 0 0 0 0

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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