Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains as weak ridging builds northeast through the region. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is dropping southeast offshore along the California coast. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting east through the Dakotas.

Rain chances (50-70%) increase again for portions of southwest Kansas tonight as the SREF indicates ridging aloft shifting east into the Central Plains while the closed low off the west coast continues to slide slowly southeast, giving way once again to a more difluent southwest flow across the Western High Plains early in the period. Near the surface, departing surface high pressure through the Upper Midwest will help set up a east-southeasterly upslope flow across the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas late this evening with a projected frontal boundary extending off a surface low in the Texas Panhandle northwest into south central Colorado.
Although sufficient moisture is present with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s(F) to mid-50s(F), cooler conditions is resulting in minimal instability with the RAP13 showing MUCAPE values pushing only upward of 500 J/kg with a corridor of slightly higher values stretching from the Texas Panhandle northwest into southeast Colorado. Still, showers with a few isolated embedded thunderstorms are forecast to develop in vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary well to our southwest late this afternoon/early evening as H5 vort maxima eject northeast out of the Southern Rockies, interacting with the stalled boundary. Any showers/embedded storms are then expected to spread northeast overnight, pushing into southwest Kansas toward daybreak Saturday. This is suggested by the HRRR painting a 20-30% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch across much of southwest Kansas by early Saturday afternoon.

There is a minimal chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms Sunday as medium range ensembles indicate a closed upper low lifting northeast across the Great Basin, supporting a slowly intensifying difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. In response, a developing surface low is projected to strengthen in eastern Colorado while lifting northeast toward western Nebraska with a sharpening attendant dryline advancing eastward in vicinity of the Colorado line, potentially into extreme western Kansas. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of the dryline will draw ample moisture into central and portions of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing the lower/mid 60s(F), providing plenty of instability. This along with steepening mid-level lapse rates will support potential for thunderstorm development late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Near seasonal temperatures are forecast again tonight as surface high pressure drifts east out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest, creating more of a east-southeast upslope flow across western Kansas. This will do very little to erode the cooler airmass across the area while skies also remain mostly cloudy to overcast. Considering the HRRR paints a 70-90% probability of temperatures slipping below 50F in west central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of dropping below 55F in south central Kansas, look for lows generally in the mid/upper 40s(F) west to the 50s(F) farther east. Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday as surface high pressure pushes farther east across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region while lee side troughing begins to develop in eastern Colorado, bringing south-southeasterlies to western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air into the area, nudging H85 temperatures a little above 10C. However, climbing temperatures may be limited dependent how long prevailing low level stratus takes to lift/scatter out. The latest HRRR shows a widespread 60-80% probability of temperatures topping 55F, so afternoon highs exceeding 60F may be a struggle in some locations, especially farther north near the I-70 corridor. Much warmer temperatures are likely Sunday as a strengthening lee side trough axis in eastern Colorado supports a more southerly flow across western Kansas, enhancing warm air advection with H85 temperatures pushing above 15C in central Kansas to near 25C along the Colorado line. Expect afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to widespread 80s(F)
across much of southwest Kansas. Look for similar temperatures Monday with highs in the 80s(F) shifting eastward into central Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected overnight due to low ceilings and fog. East to southeast winds at around 10 knots will bring abundant low level moisture to southwest Kansas as scattered showers spread in from the southwest after midnight. Ceilings at 22z today (Friday) are already lower than what HRRR guidance suggested, and despite a somewhat optimistic trend in CAMS do not anticipate any improvement in the ceiling heights tonight. In fact after midnight the ceilings are likely to lower further as areas of fog develop. Based on last nights model performance on visibilities and easterly winds, the more pessimistic guidance in visibilities have been favored for late tonight into early Saturday morning. This will result in a period of visibilities falling into the 1/2 to 3/4 mile range between 06z and 15z Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.