Jetmore, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS

June 18, 2024 12:52 AM CDT (05:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM
Moonrise 5:10 PM   Moonset 2:31 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jetmore, KS
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Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 180505 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 60-80% chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

- Potential training of thunderstorms along an expected stalled frontal boundary may lead to localized flooding.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough of low pressure dipping southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

An outside chance (20%) for isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms remains for portions of southwest Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates an upper level trough digging farther southeast into the Great Basin. As the system approaches, a series of H5 vort maxima will eject out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains, interacting with a sharpening dryline near and along the Kansas/Colorado border. Combined with a deep moisture return providing ample instability (MUCAPE values well above 2000-3000 J/kg) within a field of steepening mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.
This is supported by the HRRR indicating a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch for extreme southwest Kansas.

Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return late Tuesday into early Wednesday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough transitioning east through the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains, sending an attendant cold front southeastward into northern Kansas before stalling out Tuesday afternoon, somewhere generally across southwest Kansas into north central Kansas. Ahead of the approaching front, prevailing southerlies will continue to enhance a moisture draw into central and portions of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the mid/upper 60s(F), providing more than ample instability. Steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with increasingly favorable dynamic support aloft in form of a field of intensifying southwesterlies spreading east into western Kansas, will support likely thunderstorm development in vicinity of the frontal boundary mid/late afternoon. The HRRR suggests the best chance for storms across west central Kansas and portions of central Kansas where it indicates a 50-70% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Wednesday morning. Considering high QPF fields in excess of 1 to 1.5 inches and possible training due to a projected stalled boundary, localized flooding could be an issue.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas. The latest HRRR indicates an 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 75F, so expect lows generally in the lower/mid 70s(F).
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday with H85 temperatures holding in the lower 20s(C) ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.
The HRRR paints a 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 90F with the warmest temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas. Considerably cooler temperatures are forecast behind the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday, especially with increased cloud cover expected. The NBM shows a 70-80% probability of high temperatures climbing above 70F in west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor with a 60-70% probability of highs topping 85F in south central Kansas. More widespread seasonal temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the stalled frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Expect highs generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong winds will continue through the time period with sustained winds at 20-30 kts and gusts 40 kts or greater at times. By late afternoon a cold front will enter into northwest and north central Kansas and we should see a line of thunderstorms develop starting around HYS at 21Z and then into the GCK and DDC areas around 00Z. These storms could contain gusty winds and downpours from heavy rainfall. VFR flight category for the most part for all terminals however as the cloud cover increases with the storm coverage we could be approaching or be in MVFR flight category between 03-06Z for GCK, HYS, and DDC.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS 19 sm60 minSSE 26G389 smClear81°F66°F62%29.66
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Dodge City, KS,




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