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FXUS63 KDDC 061600 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1000 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Updated Aviation/Key Messages

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm afternoons Wednesday and Thursday, with near record highs expected Thursday.

- Strong north winds will deliver much colder air, much more typical of December, Friday and Saturday.

- Only some passing snow flurries or a light dusting is expected now for Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

07Z observations show a large upper ridge in the Rockies with northwest flow over the central and northern plains bringing a mid to upper layer cloud deck through central and eastern Kansas. At the surface a 1028 mb high is centered in eastern Kansas and a weak lee side low is located around the Denver metro.

For today we will see the upper ridge move into the central plains which should take the upper level clouds out of the region leaving us with mainly sunny skies. Winds will pick up out of the southwest by late morning and through the afternoon. With 850 mb temperatures warming to around 16 (C) by the afternoon combining with sunshine and the downslope winds highs today should easily make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s for much of southwest Kansas.

Tonight the winds should relax a bit as the lee side low moves into northwest Kansas. Overnight lows should stay relatively mild for December standards as a warm 850 mb layer (18 C) will be across southwest Kansas with decent mixing due to the surface winds which should keep our overnight lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s in our central and eastern zones. Areas from Syracuse to Hays should fall into the lower 20s as winds will be the lightest in those areas.

Thursday should be pretty similar to Wednesday with sunshine and breezy winds. Winds should be more west to northwesterly which will help the warming with the downsloping component. Highs should reach into the lower 60s for much of southwest Kansas.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

For Friday the upper level winds will change as the ridge in the central plains exits and a quick moving upper level trough starts to dig in the four corners region. Ahead of the trough we should see the lee side low and cold front move through western Kansas which will shift the winds to the northeast and allow colder air into the area through the day. This will set the stage for snow potential for Friday night and Saturday morning.

As we go into early Saturday morning EPS and GEFS 500 mb winds both show a fairly neutral and progressive moving trough with the jet streak focused from New Mexico and stretching northeast to the Great Lakes. Surface winds will intensify to 20-30 mph through the night as the departing surface low moves farther into northeast Oklahoma. Given the nature of the trough and more northeasterly winds...this particular system will be more moisture starved and not conducive to seeing large snowfall totals. Most EPS and GEFS ensemble output for snowfall is generally 1 inch or less and probability for greater than one inch of snow across southwest Kansas is generally 20-30%. NBM4.1 snowfall output seems to be the best forecast at this point with a dusting to 1 inch of snow for area along and west of highway 283 with the greatest amounts near the Colorado border. There could be some minor impacts to travel however given the winds with the light snow.

Once the trough departs EPS and GEFS 500 mb winds are in good agreement of a large upper level ridge moving into the central and northern plains for much of next week and the climate prediction center gives us 50-60% chances of above normal temperatures for much of next week.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC. SW winds will be quite elevated at all airports Wednesday afternoon through 00z Thu, gusting 25-30 kts. South winds will remain elevated tonight at 10-15 kts, and an expected low level jet tonight will likely require a mention of low level wind shear in the next TAF issuance, around the 06z Thu time frame. VFR will continue Thursday with lighter winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 69 38 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 71 31 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 73 34 76 34 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 72 34 76 34 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 67 34 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 P28 64 43 70 40 / 0 0 0 0

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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