Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A weak disturbance will approach the southern high plains late Saturday as the mid level flow becomes west-southwesterly. A surface trough will form over the southern high plains, along with frontogenesis near the KS/OK state line. Having been suppressed into north Texas, low level moisture will rapidly advect northward into southern Kansas. However, the model solutions of the RAP and HRRR showing the surface boundary across the state line in Oklahoma are more realistic. But an isolated severe t-storm or two with very large hail can't be ruled out around Liberal by late afternoon. A few elevated t-storms are possible Saturday night across the southern half of southwest Kansas, with best chances over south central Kansas.

On Sunday, an upper level low will amplify over the western United States. Ahead of this low, a lead shortwave trough will approach the central high plains. Overnight t-storms Saturday night will likely reinforce the front across northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas. Widespread cloud cover is likely north of the front; and this will inhibit warming, resulting in hot air behind the dry line butting up against cooler/moist air. With the mid level warm plume overriding the cool air, a strong capping inversion will likely be in place just east of the dry air. This is not a favorable arrangement for long lived t-storms. Any storm that attempts to form along the boundary could move into stable air and weaken. The best chance of severe storms is along the KS/OK state line from Coldwater to Medicine Lodge and points east where the warm front will be situated. If a storm can maintain itself for a long period of time, then very large hail and tornadoes would be possible. However, the chances for high end severe weather at any one point are very low (less than 10%) and most places will not receive rain. The best chance for locally heavy rain is across south central Kansas with the any t-storm.

By the time the main upper level trough arrives Monday, the low level moisture will have been shunted into eastern Kansas.
However, given the expected steep lapse rates and residual moisture in the wake of the front, showers and non-severe t-storms are possible with daytime heating. However, the various ensemble means indicate very low mean precipitation amounts.
But given the spotty nature of the rain, a few locations could get lucky and receive a quarter of an inch with any heavier shower.

After Monday the large upper level trough will gradually progress eastward through Thursday, with surface high pressure buildings across the high plains Wednesday night. This will be a dry period in the absence of deep moisture or strong upper level support. With dry air in place and radiational cooling, expect lows in the lower to mid 40s for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Given the expected light winds Thursday morning, temperatures across west central Kansas including Scott City, Garden City, Dighton and Syracuse could drop into the mid to high 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR flight category for all terminals for the next 24 hours.
Winds will increase after 14Z for GCK, LBL, and DDC to sustained 15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts between 14Z Saturday through 00Z Sunday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.