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FXUS63 KDDC 261732 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an enhanced risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening across central Kansas.

- Near critical fire weather is expected today. Critical fire weather conditions will occur Saturday across the southwest corner of Kansas.

- Dry weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday. There are small chances for thunderstorms mid next week, particularly across central Kansas.

- In the absence of strong cold fronts, expect warm weather through next week, with highs generally in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Southwest Kansas will be between upper level systems today. The dry slot with the overnight upper level trough is sweeping across the area so that today will be warm and dry with southwest winds and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The next upper level trough will develop across the southwestern USA Friday and Friday night. The low level moist axis, having been shunted into eastern Kansas and central and eastern Oklahoma today, will retreat westward into south central Kansas as the next upper level trough approaches. The main forcing with this system is set to arrive Saturday evening. However, thunderstorm initiation may occur by mid afternoon Saturday with daytime heating over Barber, Pratt and Stafford counties and points east. When two upper level systems are close together, the low to mid level capping inversion is usually weaker with the trailing system. If storms do not form in the afternoon Saturday, initiation is likely Saturday evening as the stronger forcing for ascent arrives and low level convergence increases. These storms will likely be severe with very large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. As far as the details are concerned, we will know a lot more Friday night (a day ahead of the event). For example, we will have a much better idea of how far west the low level moisture will be progress Saturday evening as the forcing arrives. For now, the best chance of severe storms is across parts of central Kansas per Day 2 SPC outlook that shows an enhanced risk of severe storms. This outlook shows a 10% hatched tornado area (meaning there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a given point) from Pratt and Medicine Lodge north to Hays.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday evening's upper level trough will pass off to the east by Sunday, with low level moisture exiting southwest Kansas.
Zonal mid to high level flow will develop across the northern plains, along with embedded disturbances and weak frontal passages. This is typically a dry pattern for central and southwest Kansas. Based on the various ensemble means including the ECMWF, ICON, CMCE and GEFS, a strong, embedded upper level trough will pass north of Kansas Tuesday and push a front through Kansas. A southern branch disturbance is also indicated across the southern plains. With low level moisture poised across the southern plains, there will be small to moderate chances for thunderstorms mid next week. The ensemble mean rainfall for the various models is highest across central Kansas and lowest across far western Kansas. Even across central Kansas the probability of rainfall greater than .5" is only 10 to 30%. Generally mild weather is forecast through next week in the absence of any strong cold fronts. This generally means highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A pacific frontal boundary is moving through bringing light showers that will end by the middle of the afternoon for the GCK and DDC terminals. West winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 27 kts.
Into the evening winds will weaken and shift to light and variable. After this period another front will move through Saturday with a chance of more showers and a wind shift.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Near critical fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon across southwest Kansas. Humidity will drop to near 15% by afternoon from Liberal west to Elkhart, with 20 to 25% values farther northeast. However, winds will be marginal in the driest area, with sustained winds only 12-15 kts. A few gusts over 25 mph are likely; but this is almost an every day occurrence on the high plains, and red flag warnings are best reserved for windier days when large wildfires can quickly get out of control.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon behind a dry line. Strong southwest winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected, along with humidity between 10 and 15%. This area is southwest and west of Dodge City including Liberal, Lakin, Ulysses and Meade. There has been some greenup even across this area; but much less so than farther east. Upon coordination, it was decided to hold off on headlines for now.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

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