Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for French-Rumbly, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A weak front lifts back to the north today with low level moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

-A few showers are possible tonight, mainly across the northern half of the FA.

The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper level ridge in place along the Atlantic coast of Florida, with a potent upper trough over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, ~1030mb sfc high pressure is centered over Quebec, ridging SSE to the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Sfc low pressure (~1000mb), is becoming occluded while pushing N through the upper MS Valley, co-located with the upper low. A weak sfc boundary that has been nearly stationary from SW VA into eastern NC, is beginning to lift back to the N/NE as a warm front.

Temperatures are cooler than 24 hrs ago for most of the FA due to the onshore low level flow, ranging from the upper 40s on the MD eastern shore to the lower 60s over interior NE NC and south central VA. The sky is mostly cloudy with high clouds, but there are some lower clouds increasing in coverage over the past few hrs. For today, as the upper trough to the W slowly drifts east through the day, increasing mid level SW flow will slowly help push the sfc boundary back N as a warm front, taking the longest across NE portions of the FA. There is not much in way of deep layered moisture in place for more than a few very light showers/sprinkles along the front today, with PoPs only 10-20% (mainly across the north). Expect the sky to be mostly cloudy this morning, with partial clearing in the warm sector during the aftn (earliest SW and latest across the NE). Highs will show a decent gradient, ranging from the low-mid 80s over interior NE NC and south central VA, to the upper 60s/lower 70s on the eastern shore (locally only upper 50s/lower 60s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). Tonight, as the sfc low continues to move E-NE into eastern Canada, a slow moving cold front will approach the CWA from the NW. Most of the precip will stay N of the region until later in the evening, spreading some low PoPs (20-30%) into mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA overnight. Lows will be well above normal, mainly in the low-mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Scattered showers are possible Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across southern VA/NE NC.

The cold front will be slow to drop south on Tuesday, and will likely stall over southern VA Tuesday evening, eventually pushing S of the local area Tue night as a backdoor cold front.
Scattered showers are possible ahead of and along the front Tuesday/Tue night mainly across S portions of the FA (30-60% PoPs). A few storms are also possible Tue afternoon into early Tue night across far S VA/NE NC. With lingering moisture and weak low pressure riding along the front Wed, additional scattered showers are possible Wed across southern portions of the FA Any showers taper off by Wed evening. Highs are expected to range from the low-mid 80s Tue for most of the area, then cooler on Wed with reading mainly in the 70s (mid 60s to around 70F at the immediate coast).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled again Thursday night through Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures Friday/Saturday, then near normal Sunday.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal late in the week, with a flat ridge centered S of the area, and a series of upper trough staying N across Canada. The current model consensus is for enough of a push of drier air to make it south into the local area for a mainly dry day Thursday with temperatures near to slight above normal (lows in the low-mid 50s and highs in the 70s). The next upper trough is forecast to amplify from central Canada south into the central Plains states later Friday, becoming a strong upper trough across Quebec and the St Lawrence Valley by later Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and into Canada Fri into Sat, pushing a warm front N across the area Fri before the associated cold front moves through Sat afternoon into Sat night. Scattered showers are expected late Thursday/Friday with the warm front (25-35% PoPs). Shower chances increase Fri afternoon with a few storms possible across the Piedmont (30-50% PoPs). However, the highest chance for showers and storms will be Sat with the cold front as PoPs increase to 50-60%. Sunday looks cooler and drier behind the front.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

VFR to start the TAF period, under mainly just BKN high clouds, with some SCT lower clouds. Winds are relatively light from the E-SE. As the stalled boundary to the south slowly lifts NE later this morning, expect low clouds to thicken up w/ periodic MVFR CIGs possible from about 12-18Z for most of the region, or a little later (15-21Z) at SBY. A few light showers/sprinkles are possible, mainly across northern areas later this morning into early aftn, but this is not expected to lead to any flight restrictions. E-SE winds at ~10 kt, shift to the SSE by later aftn/evening, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts up to ~20kt, then become SSW ~10kt tonight. Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight, but a few showers may bring brief flight restrictions to northern areas overnight.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers are expected Tuesday, with the highest coverage, as well as isolated tstms possible, late Tue/Tue night across southern VA and NE NC. Dry/VFR N, with a chc for periodic flight restrictions continuing Wed across southern areas. Generally dry Wed night/Thu, with a few showers possible Friday.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Yesterday's backdoor front lifts back to the north as a warm front today.

- A short period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is likely for the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into the evening hours.

Surface high pressure remains anchored off the SE CONUS early this morning with low pressure over the Mississippi Valley. Winds over the waters are generally ESE 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft (highest near and south of the VA/NC border).

The stalled front in central NC will lift back to the north today as a warm front. Guidance shows the front lifting northward more quickly over land areas with a slower progression over the marine zones. SE flow strengthens to 10-15 kt this morning and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by mid to late afternoon for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. Winds in the rivers and Currituck Sound are forecast to stay below SCA thresholds at 10-15 kt. SCA headlines have been raised for the bay from mid afternoon into the evening (4- 10pm). The strongest winds will likely focus over the southern bay but local wind probs show 40-60% probability of sustained 18 kt winds north of New Pt Comfort so have included all bay zones in the advisory. Enhanced SE flow will be short-lived with winds becoming S ~15 kt before midnight. Flow gradually becomes southwesterly 5-10 kt on Tuesday ahead of the next weak cold front. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week. N winds will follow the frontal passage early Wednesday, becoming NE or E through the end of the week. SSE flow increases late Friday into Saturday ahead of the next front. SCA conditions are possible both ahead of and behind the frontal passage this weekend.

Waves increase to 2-3 ft with seas 2-4 ft this afternoon and evening. Waves fall back to 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft through the rest of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634.