Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beards Fork, WV
December 10, 2023 12:27 PM EST (17:27 UTC)
Sunrise 7:27AM Sunset 5:07PM Moonrise 5:04AM Moonset 3:13PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 101617 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1117 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong cold front exits to the east, though a wave moves along it today. Upslope flow tonight into Monday. High pressure Monday night/Tuesday. Dry cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1015 AM Sunday...
The near term forecast remains on track at this time. Precipitation continues to progress across much of the area as a cold front exits to the east.
As of 725 AM Sunday...
Forecast on track as the cold front approaches the mountains, but the wave holds the back edge of the rain along the Ohio River. Rainfall rates were light early this morning, but holes in the coverage were beginning to fill back in in response to the approaching wave, still well off to the southwest.
As of 500 AM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Rain event winds down today with no major issues expected
* Northern mountain snow advisory upgraded to warning and surrounded by advisories that extend southward into the central mountains
A large, intensifying low pressure system moving northeastward through east Canada was pulling a wavy cold front through the forecast area early this morning. Already east of the Ohio River early this morning, this front should clear the area by late this morning. However, The trailing southern stream short wave trough way back over eastern Texas, and the baroclinic leaf evinced on GOES-R infra-red and water vapor imagery over the Ohio Valley, spell ongoing rain showers behind the front but mainly along and east of the Ohio River, through this morning.
One wave pushed a slug of modestly heavy rainfall through southeastern Ohio Saturday, resulting in three quarters of an inch to an inch there. This next wave has so far done likewise across southeast portions of the forecast area through early this Sunday morning. These rainfall amounts have so far been manageable, with lesser amounts in between. However, additional rainfall amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch today could bring storm totals up to the neighborhood of an inch and a half, which will still cause stream rises and at least the usual poor drainage and blocked culvert ponding, across southeastern portions of the area and even up through the northern mountains as well.
These rain showers will resume eastward movement this afternoon as the wave goes by, and the overall system continues to pull away from the area. However, northwest flow behind the surface wave moving up the middle Atlantic seaboard tonight, and the short wave trough, will contribute to snow showers mainly in and near the mountains, as ongoing colder advection lowers temperatures below freezing in the mountains this evening.
Mountain snow levels lower tonight and, eventually, temperatures fall below freezing from west to east across the the lowlands overnight tonight, or at least by dawn Monday.
Infusion of near term high resolution model data has pushed snowfall totals just high enough to warrant an upgrade of the snow advisory over the higher terrain of the northern mountains to a warning for tonight through Monday morning, while issuing a snow advisory for the surrounding lower terrain in and near the northern mountains, and the higher terrain of the central mountains. Wind gusts of up to 40 mph will accompany the snow over the highest ridges of the northern mountains overnight tonight.
The wet conditions could lead to a glaze of ice beneath the snow tonight once temperatures fall below freezing. However, teasing out particularly treacherous areas is tied to teasing out a sufficiently tight portion of an otherwise modest temperature gradient, where values are falling quickly below freezing and into the upper 20s F at the surface. This three-dimensional chess match is time, space and elevation dependent, but this glaze is included in the headlines, which also focus on locally higher snowfall amounts.
Even the lowlands could get a coating of snow overnight tonight, especially nearer the mountains.
Falling temperatures in the cold advection today level off a degree or two either side of 40 F across the lowlands for a time later this morning and this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
The short term period opens up at the tail end of the system that promotes mountain snow for Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers become contained along the higher terrain by daybreak Monday as the parent low tracks into New England and takes the bulk of moisture eastward. Post-frontal west/northwest flow will continue to produce upslope snow showers in the morning along the northeast WV mountains, but comes to an end by the afternoon as low level flow backs out of the southwest.
Ongoing breezy lower elevation and strong mountain wind gusts will gradually taper down in a similar trend on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes over the Central Appalachians.
This portion of the event will contribute a half an inch to an inch of snow before wrapping up. This remains in line with the current expiration time of 18Z Monday for the Winter Weather Headlines.
High pressure at the surface moseys on in from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday as flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will denote the start of a dry spell that will encompass much of the work week. Temperatures during this time will bottom out into the teens/20s Tuesday morning before aforementioned southwest flow yields a slight recovery into the upper 40s/low 50s for the lowlands in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1115 AM Sunday...
A dry cold front will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models still differ on how much cold air will push into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday. GFS remains the warmest while the Canadian is the coldest. The NAM and ECMWF are in between. Will hedge temperatures downward some in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.
Models do agree that a high pressure system will build over the area for Thursday and Friday.
Models still struggling on whether the northern and southern stream systems will interact with each other or not for the next weekend. ECMWF and Canadian keep the systems separate, which leads to a dry weekend here. The GFS however still phases the systems which creates a strong system that brings precipitation to the area, and then pulls very cold air into the region for the beginning of the next work week. Obviously, confidence is very low in the forecast for next weekend.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 725 AM Sunday...
A wavy cold front will bring MVFR conditions in rain showers from west to east early this morning. Brief IFR visibility is possible in heavier showers, mainly in the mountains.
Rain showers will continue behind the wavy front this morning, with MVFR ceilings more persistent, and MVFR visibility a bit more persistent east of the Ohio River, and IFR visibility at times in and near the mountains.
Already through HTS, PKB and CRW, the cold front clears CKB 13Z and the mountains 14-15Z.
Conditions will improve this afternoon as rain showers taper off, with visibility improving to VFR, and ceilings improving to VFR at times, at least along the Ohio River. MVFR ceilings should settle in in ernest across the lowlands tonight and continue Monday.
The mountains are not likely to see much if any improvement this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR visibility in rain showers more persistent there. Rain showers will change to snow showers in the mountains toward 00Z tonight, with fluctuating visibility and ceilings, although ceilings at BKW are likely to be predominately IFR through tonight and into Monday.
Light south to southwest surface flow ahead of the front in and near the mountains early this morning will become west behind the cold front this morning, briefly gusty with the frontal passage. Surface flow will otherwise be light west to northwest today, and then gusty from the northwest tonight to 15 to 20 kts. Moderate south to southwest flow aloft becomes light west to southwest this morning, and then light northwest late today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility will fluctuate with the frontal passage this morning. Improvement this afternoon may vary, before MVFR stratocumulus settles in in ernest tonight, with IFR stratus in the mountains, at least at BKW, There could be brief wind gusts with the frontal passage in and near the mountains this morning. Gusty winds late today and tonight will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M L H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in snow showers along the mountains Monday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ039-040-516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1117 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong cold front exits to the east, though a wave moves along it today. Upslope flow tonight into Monday. High pressure Monday night/Tuesday. Dry cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1015 AM Sunday...
The near term forecast remains on track at this time. Precipitation continues to progress across much of the area as a cold front exits to the east.
As of 725 AM Sunday...
Forecast on track as the cold front approaches the mountains, but the wave holds the back edge of the rain along the Ohio River. Rainfall rates were light early this morning, but holes in the coverage were beginning to fill back in in response to the approaching wave, still well off to the southwest.
As of 500 AM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Rain event winds down today with no major issues expected
* Northern mountain snow advisory upgraded to warning and surrounded by advisories that extend southward into the central mountains
A large, intensifying low pressure system moving northeastward through east Canada was pulling a wavy cold front through the forecast area early this morning. Already east of the Ohio River early this morning, this front should clear the area by late this morning. However, The trailing southern stream short wave trough way back over eastern Texas, and the baroclinic leaf evinced on GOES-R infra-red and water vapor imagery over the Ohio Valley, spell ongoing rain showers behind the front but mainly along and east of the Ohio River, through this morning.
One wave pushed a slug of modestly heavy rainfall through southeastern Ohio Saturday, resulting in three quarters of an inch to an inch there. This next wave has so far done likewise across southeast portions of the forecast area through early this Sunday morning. These rainfall amounts have so far been manageable, with lesser amounts in between. However, additional rainfall amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch today could bring storm totals up to the neighborhood of an inch and a half, which will still cause stream rises and at least the usual poor drainage and blocked culvert ponding, across southeastern portions of the area and even up through the northern mountains as well.
These rain showers will resume eastward movement this afternoon as the wave goes by, and the overall system continues to pull away from the area. However, northwest flow behind the surface wave moving up the middle Atlantic seaboard tonight, and the short wave trough, will contribute to snow showers mainly in and near the mountains, as ongoing colder advection lowers temperatures below freezing in the mountains this evening.
Mountain snow levels lower tonight and, eventually, temperatures fall below freezing from west to east across the the lowlands overnight tonight, or at least by dawn Monday.
Infusion of near term high resolution model data has pushed snowfall totals just high enough to warrant an upgrade of the snow advisory over the higher terrain of the northern mountains to a warning for tonight through Monday morning, while issuing a snow advisory for the surrounding lower terrain in and near the northern mountains, and the higher terrain of the central mountains. Wind gusts of up to 40 mph will accompany the snow over the highest ridges of the northern mountains overnight tonight.
The wet conditions could lead to a glaze of ice beneath the snow tonight once temperatures fall below freezing. However, teasing out particularly treacherous areas is tied to teasing out a sufficiently tight portion of an otherwise modest temperature gradient, where values are falling quickly below freezing and into the upper 20s F at the surface. This three-dimensional chess match is time, space and elevation dependent, but this glaze is included in the headlines, which also focus on locally higher snowfall amounts.
Even the lowlands could get a coating of snow overnight tonight, especially nearer the mountains.
Falling temperatures in the cold advection today level off a degree or two either side of 40 F across the lowlands for a time later this morning and this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
The short term period opens up at the tail end of the system that promotes mountain snow for Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers become contained along the higher terrain by daybreak Monday as the parent low tracks into New England and takes the bulk of moisture eastward. Post-frontal west/northwest flow will continue to produce upslope snow showers in the morning along the northeast WV mountains, but comes to an end by the afternoon as low level flow backs out of the southwest.
Ongoing breezy lower elevation and strong mountain wind gusts will gradually taper down in a similar trend on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes over the Central Appalachians.
This portion of the event will contribute a half an inch to an inch of snow before wrapping up. This remains in line with the current expiration time of 18Z Monday for the Winter Weather Headlines.
High pressure at the surface moseys on in from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday as flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will denote the start of a dry spell that will encompass much of the work week. Temperatures during this time will bottom out into the teens/20s Tuesday morning before aforementioned southwest flow yields a slight recovery into the upper 40s/low 50s for the lowlands in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1115 AM Sunday...
A dry cold front will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models still differ on how much cold air will push into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday. GFS remains the warmest while the Canadian is the coldest. The NAM and ECMWF are in between. Will hedge temperatures downward some in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.
Models do agree that a high pressure system will build over the area for Thursday and Friday.
Models still struggling on whether the northern and southern stream systems will interact with each other or not for the next weekend. ECMWF and Canadian keep the systems separate, which leads to a dry weekend here. The GFS however still phases the systems which creates a strong system that brings precipitation to the area, and then pulls very cold air into the region for the beginning of the next work week. Obviously, confidence is very low in the forecast for next weekend.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 725 AM Sunday...
A wavy cold front will bring MVFR conditions in rain showers from west to east early this morning. Brief IFR visibility is possible in heavier showers, mainly in the mountains.
Rain showers will continue behind the wavy front this morning, with MVFR ceilings more persistent, and MVFR visibility a bit more persistent east of the Ohio River, and IFR visibility at times in and near the mountains.
Already through HTS, PKB and CRW, the cold front clears CKB 13Z and the mountains 14-15Z.
Conditions will improve this afternoon as rain showers taper off, with visibility improving to VFR, and ceilings improving to VFR at times, at least along the Ohio River. MVFR ceilings should settle in in ernest across the lowlands tonight and continue Monday.
The mountains are not likely to see much if any improvement this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR visibility in rain showers more persistent there. Rain showers will change to snow showers in the mountains toward 00Z tonight, with fluctuating visibility and ceilings, although ceilings at BKW are likely to be predominately IFR through tonight and into Monday.
Light south to southwest surface flow ahead of the front in and near the mountains early this morning will become west behind the cold front this morning, briefly gusty with the frontal passage. Surface flow will otherwise be light west to northwest today, and then gusty from the northwest tonight to 15 to 20 kts. Moderate south to southwest flow aloft becomes light west to southwest this morning, and then light northwest late today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility will fluctuate with the frontal passage this morning. Improvement this afternoon may vary, before MVFR stratocumulus settles in in ernest tonight, with IFR stratus in the mountains, at least at BKW, There could be brief wind gusts with the frontal passage in and near the mountains this morning. Gusty winds late today and tonight will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M L H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in snow showers along the mountains Monday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ039-040-516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKW RALEIGH COUNTY MEMORIAL,WV | 21 sm | 26 min | N 08 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Rain Mist | 45°F | 43°F | 93% | 29.87 |
Wind History from BKW
(wind in knots)
Charleston, WV,
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