Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beards Fork, WV
September 11, 2024 10:00 AM EDT (14:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:02 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 2:24 PM Moonset 11:20 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 111054 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 654 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some rain late week into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
River valley fog that formed early this morning will dissipate in the next hour or two. Aside from a few adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints, the current forecast remains on track.
As of 210 AM Wednesday...
High pressure retains control over the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley, allowing dry weather to continue throughout the near term forecast period. During this time, high level clouds begin to spread into the area from the south as tropical system Francine slowly eases toward the Gulf Coast.
Fire weather remains a concern as relative humidity once again falls into the 20s to 30s this afternoon. However, much like yesterday, this concern should be somewhat limited by light winds.
Temperatures will climb above normal today, reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains. Lows tonight then range from mid 40s to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 217 AM Wednesday...
Dry airmass remains in place for Thursday, keeping the area rain- free into Thursday night. Meanwhile, high clouds associated with outer bands of Francine will invade the skies into Friday. Warm afternoons still expected for Thursday and Friday, with temperatures reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s over the higher elevations of our northeast mountains.
By Thursday morning, Hurricane Francine is projected to weaken into a tropical storm, weakening further into a tropical depression by Thursday evening. This trend will break any organization of outer bands associated with Francine, producing light QPF as these features run out of forcing away from its center.
There are some uncertainty how much moisture Francine will bring to our area Friday. Models have retracted some in their QPF fields, with the exception of the Canadian model that persist with some chances across extreme southern WV, NE KY and SW VA Friday night and Saturday. Therefore, considering the Canadian solution an outlier, reduced NBM's PoPs across the area during the weekend.
H850 southeast winds 20-30 knots will produce surface east southeast winds gusting 20 to 25 knots mainly along the eastern mountains Friday into the weekend.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 217 AM Wednesday...
Models are in better agreement, keeping moisture and precipitation away from our area for the weekend. The only outlier is the Canadian model that has been consistent bringing some QPF to our southern zones.
Given the uncertainty, we will keep 15-20% PoPs over extreme southern portions of the area this weekend, expecting to change as the system shift east and continues to weaken. Near-normal temperatures should prevail for the middle of September under variable cloudiness.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
River valley fog that formed early this morning will dissipate in the next hour or two. VFR is then expected for the rest of the day, while high level clouds gradually spread into the area from the south. Patchy river valley fog could form late in the period, potentially reducing CIGs /VIS at EKN.
East to southeast winds should remain light through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur if fog develops tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 654 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some rain late week into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
River valley fog that formed early this morning will dissipate in the next hour or two. Aside from a few adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints, the current forecast remains on track.
As of 210 AM Wednesday...
High pressure retains control over the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley, allowing dry weather to continue throughout the near term forecast period. During this time, high level clouds begin to spread into the area from the south as tropical system Francine slowly eases toward the Gulf Coast.
Fire weather remains a concern as relative humidity once again falls into the 20s to 30s this afternoon. However, much like yesterday, this concern should be somewhat limited by light winds.
Temperatures will climb above normal today, reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains. Lows tonight then range from mid 40s to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 217 AM Wednesday...
Dry airmass remains in place for Thursday, keeping the area rain- free into Thursday night. Meanwhile, high clouds associated with outer bands of Francine will invade the skies into Friday. Warm afternoons still expected for Thursday and Friday, with temperatures reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s over the higher elevations of our northeast mountains.
By Thursday morning, Hurricane Francine is projected to weaken into a tropical storm, weakening further into a tropical depression by Thursday evening. This trend will break any organization of outer bands associated with Francine, producing light QPF as these features run out of forcing away from its center.
There are some uncertainty how much moisture Francine will bring to our area Friday. Models have retracted some in their QPF fields, with the exception of the Canadian model that persist with some chances across extreme southern WV, NE KY and SW VA Friday night and Saturday. Therefore, considering the Canadian solution an outlier, reduced NBM's PoPs across the area during the weekend.
H850 southeast winds 20-30 knots will produce surface east southeast winds gusting 20 to 25 knots mainly along the eastern mountains Friday into the weekend.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 217 AM Wednesday...
Models are in better agreement, keeping moisture and precipitation away from our area for the weekend. The only outlier is the Canadian model that has been consistent bringing some QPF to our southern zones.
Given the uncertainty, we will keep 15-20% PoPs over extreme southern portions of the area this weekend, expecting to change as the system shift east and continues to weaken. Near-normal temperatures should prevail for the middle of September under variable cloudiness.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
River valley fog that formed early this morning will dissipate in the next hour or two. VFR is then expected for the rest of the day, while high level clouds gradually spread into the area from the south. Patchy river valley fog could form late in the period, potentially reducing CIGs /VIS at EKN.
East to southeast winds should remain light through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur if fog develops tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBKW
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBKW
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBKW
Wind History graph: BKW
(wind in knots)
Charleston, WV,
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