Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuba, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Latest satellite imagery is showing extensive low clouds across Missouri early this morning with mainly clear skies across Illinois.
The HRRR and NBM is showing these clouds clearing out by late this morning before additional high clouds move into the area ahead of an upper trough over the central Plains. Even with these clouds, warm air advection today with the southerly winds and mixing up to 800mb still support highs well into the 80s.

Then the attention points to the chance for thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday and the potential for severe weather. The best upper ascent will still stay to the north with the upper trough likely leaving just scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms along the front as they move into central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Model MLCAPE and bulk shear still show the potential for a few severe storms ahead of of the front with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado is not out of the question if there is not too much CINH.

The CAMS are also showing that additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front later tonight into Tuesday morning that will overspread the CWA during the morning hours. There remains some potential for a few of these storms to remain strong with locally heavy rainfall through the morning hours as they move through the area. The CAMS are moving the outflow boundary south of the CWA which would limit the severe weather threat the rest of the day.
If this boundary does not clear the CWA and the synoptic front is closer to where the NAM/GFS has it, then there will still be some potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois where MLCAPES will be around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer shear will be 35 knots which will support organized multicells capable of producing damaging winds.

Britt

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The LREF is showing a stalled front staying over Missouri and Illinois until an upper trough moves across the area on Thursday. 70- 90% of the LREF ensemble members show precipitation occurring Tuesday night through Thursday. The chances for 2+" of rainfall along and south of I-70 is in the 30-60% range with the highest values across central and southeast Missouri, so some locally heavy rainfall is possible with repeated showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather will return to the area Friday into the weekend as an upper ridge begins to build over the area.

Britt

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Dry and VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds will prevail until late tonight when showers and thunderstorms enter the region ahead of and along a cold front. General start time of the thunderstorms ranges from around 06z in northeast Missouri to around 12z for locations along the I-70 corridor. Areas south of this will see the bulk of showers and thunderstorms outside of the going TAF period. Tonight's thunderstorms will be capable of reducing flight conditions to IFR or lower and may produce strong to severe wind gusts if a storm gets close to or directly impacts a terminal.

Jaja

CLIMATE
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Monday, nearing daily records for late April. Here are the daily record highs for April 28.

LOCATION RECORD ST LOUIS 92 set in 1970 COLUMBIA 88 set in 1970 QUINCY 88 set in 1970



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.