Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuba, MO
March 28, 2024 6:14 PM CDT (23:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:55 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 10:03 PM Moonset 7:22 AM |
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 282024 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 324 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm temperatures through the weekend into Monday. Highs nearing 80 on Sunday Along and south of the Missouri River Valley.
- Sunday: A warm front across the region will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm chances.
- Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest (50 to 80%). There is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday Afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through 19Z, the surface ridge continues to slide south-southeast of the region, with modest southwesterly flow persisting across the area. Temperatures have risen steadily into the lower 60s early this afternoon, while some scattered clouds continue to stream across northeastern Missouri. Through the evening, mid-level ridging from the west, well defined on WV imagery, will slide eastward, with the shallow ridge axis setting up through Friday morning from the ArkLaTex to the northern Mississippi Valley. Boundary layer return flow will increase, with surface winds becoming breezy through the afternoon off the Ozark Plateau and across the area. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with highs pushing the mid 70s for highs to close out the work week. Late Friday night, a weak surface front will advance eastward across Missouri, supported by a weak H500 short wave. Short-range solutions have hinted at some lower PoPs with a 100 to 300 J/Kg SBCAPE, but forecast soundings suggest a decent capping inversion, so any development, if it can fire, looks to be isolated.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through Saturday into Sunday, ridging remains in place, with ample WAA and return flow into the lower Missouri to Mid-Mississippi Valley. Through midday, Sunday, a warm front is still expected to slow and stall across northern Missouri, near the MO/IA border. This will be focus for showers and thunderstorms through the day, with a ribbon of 500 J/Kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings suggest a sizable EML existing through late afternoon across much of the area, which would restrict development, but anything on or near the boundary could easily make use of the stout deep layer shear and result in a few robust updrafts. A few elevated severe hailers cannot be ruled out through the afternoon into the evening.
Into Monday, a strong western trough will emerge across the Rockies onto the western High Plains. With the region well within the warm sector, broad isentropic ascent ahead of the amplified trough will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development Monday morning through midday. Into the afternoon, agree with the SPC 15% (slight risk), across the region. If some recovery can persist within the warm sector, with the lift of the surface trough across northwestern Missouri into Iowa, the combo of modest instability and favorable wind profiles for organized convection, there is a window for severe convection through the late afternoon and evening. Looking at forecast soundings, skinny CAPE profiles are not overly encouraging for large hail, but supportive enough, especially when combined with veering profiles, for at least half dollars to golf balls with the strongest updrafts.
Beyond Monday, expect cooler temperatures Tuesday, post cold front, with breezy northwest flow. This trend will persist through Wednesday before ridging develops and builds in by late week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period for all sites. Southwesterly winds will continue, some elevated across central and northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois, through the afternoon. Overnight, expect winds to shift more southerly, persisting through tomorrow, midday. SCT high clouds will stream across area terminals this afternoon, with increasing coverage to BKN overnight. For KSTL, winds will increase after 18Z tomorrow, remaining gusty, 20 to 25kts through 30/00Z.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 324 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm temperatures through the weekend into Monday. Highs nearing 80 on Sunday Along and south of the Missouri River Valley.
- Sunday: A warm front across the region will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm chances.
- Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest (50 to 80%). There is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday Afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through 19Z, the surface ridge continues to slide south-southeast of the region, with modest southwesterly flow persisting across the area. Temperatures have risen steadily into the lower 60s early this afternoon, while some scattered clouds continue to stream across northeastern Missouri. Through the evening, mid-level ridging from the west, well defined on WV imagery, will slide eastward, with the shallow ridge axis setting up through Friday morning from the ArkLaTex to the northern Mississippi Valley. Boundary layer return flow will increase, with surface winds becoming breezy through the afternoon off the Ozark Plateau and across the area. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with highs pushing the mid 70s for highs to close out the work week. Late Friday night, a weak surface front will advance eastward across Missouri, supported by a weak H500 short wave. Short-range solutions have hinted at some lower PoPs with a 100 to 300 J/Kg SBCAPE, but forecast soundings suggest a decent capping inversion, so any development, if it can fire, looks to be isolated.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through Saturday into Sunday, ridging remains in place, with ample WAA and return flow into the lower Missouri to Mid-Mississippi Valley. Through midday, Sunday, a warm front is still expected to slow and stall across northern Missouri, near the MO/IA border. This will be focus for showers and thunderstorms through the day, with a ribbon of 500 J/Kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings suggest a sizable EML existing through late afternoon across much of the area, which would restrict development, but anything on or near the boundary could easily make use of the stout deep layer shear and result in a few robust updrafts. A few elevated severe hailers cannot be ruled out through the afternoon into the evening.
Into Monday, a strong western trough will emerge across the Rockies onto the western High Plains. With the region well within the warm sector, broad isentropic ascent ahead of the amplified trough will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development Monday morning through midday. Into the afternoon, agree with the SPC 15% (slight risk), across the region. If some recovery can persist within the warm sector, with the lift of the surface trough across northwestern Missouri into Iowa, the combo of modest instability and favorable wind profiles for organized convection, there is a window for severe convection through the late afternoon and evening. Looking at forecast soundings, skinny CAPE profiles are not overly encouraging for large hail, but supportive enough, especially when combined with veering profiles, for at least half dollars to golf balls with the strongest updrafts.
Beyond Monday, expect cooler temperatures Tuesday, post cold front, with breezy northwest flow. This trend will persist through Wednesday before ridging develops and builds in by late week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period for all sites. Southwesterly winds will continue, some elevated across central and northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois, through the afternoon. Overnight, expect winds to shift more southerly, persisting through tomorrow, midday. SCT high clouds will stream across area terminals this afternoon, with increasing coverage to BKN overnight. For KSTL, winds will increase after 18Z tomorrow, remaining gusty, 20 to 25kts through 30/00Z.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KUUV SULLIVAN RGNL,MO | 17 sm | 19 min | WSW 08G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 27°F | 24% | 30.08 | |
KVIH ROLLA NATIONAL,MO | 19 sm | 21 min | WSW 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 28°F | 27% | 30.07 |
St. Louis, MO,
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