Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montross, VA
December 11, 2023 2:05 AM EST (07:05 UTC)
Sunrise 7:13AM Sunset 4:48PM Moonrise 5:54AM Moonset 3:32PM
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1234 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Overnight..NW winds 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Overnight..NW winds 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1234 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will continue to push south and east of the waters overnight. High pressure will build in Tuesday while a weak cold front tracks through Wednesday morning. High pressure returns during for Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will continue to push south and east of the waters overnight. High pressure will build in Tuesday while a weak cold front tracks through Wednesday morning. High pressure returns during for Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 110542 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area overnight. Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some.
Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 845 PM EST Sunday...
Evening wx analysis shows that the well advertised cold front is now entering our CWA from the NW, and has crossed portions of Louisa/Caroline Counties. Aloft, the strong shortwave has begun to take on a negative tilt as it approaches from the SW (and is still currently over GA). Surface-based instability has waned with the loss of daytime heating, and the latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE over SE VA/NE NC, with little to no SBCAPE along and west of I-95. The front will cross the area from NW-SE between now and 2 AM. Expect a quick ~15F temperature drop following the FROPA along with a 1-2 hour period of gusty NW winds on the order of 35-45+ mph. This will be handed with SPSs if needed (and there is an outside chc that a Severe Tstm Warning or two will be needed for gusts with the front if they are considerably higher than expected).
Precipitation will become stratiform following the FROPA, and am still expecting the stratiform precip to continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning. However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro).
Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ632-634-638- 658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area overnight. Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some.
Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 845 PM EST Sunday...
Evening wx analysis shows that the well advertised cold front is now entering our CWA from the NW, and has crossed portions of Louisa/Caroline Counties. Aloft, the strong shortwave has begun to take on a negative tilt as it approaches from the SW (and is still currently over GA). Surface-based instability has waned with the loss of daytime heating, and the latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE over SE VA/NE NC, with little to no SBCAPE along and west of I-95. The front will cross the area from NW-SE between now and 2 AM. Expect a quick ~15F temperature drop following the FROPA along with a 1-2 hour period of gusty NW winds on the order of 35-45+ mph. This will be handed with SPSs if needed (and there is an outside chc that a Severe Tstm Warning or two will be needed for gusts with the front if they are considerably higher than expected).
Precipitation will become stratiform following the FROPA, and am still expecting the stratiform precip to continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning. However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro).
Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ632-634-638- 658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 11 mi | 47 min | N 17G | |||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 16 mi | 47 min | NNW 17G | 44°F | 50°F | 29.79 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 21 mi | 41 min | NNW 19G | 40°F | 50°F | 1 ft | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 21 mi | 47 min | NNW 14G | 42°F | 50°F | 29.77 | ||
| NCDV2 | 22 mi | 47 min | NNW 5.1G | 37°F | 49°F | |||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 28 mi | 47 min | W 21G | 42°F | 29.78 | |||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 36 mi | 41 min | NNW 25G | 37°F | 49°F | 3 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 38 mi | 47 min | N 12G | 46°F | 50°F | 29.75 | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 45 mi | 41 min | NNW 23G | 43°F | 50°F | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 47 mi | 95 min | NNW 9.9 | 40°F | 29.80 | 38°F | ||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 47 mi | 95 min | WSW 1.9 | 29.77 | ||||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 48 mi | 47 min | NNW 22G | 43°F | 47°F | 29.78 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 16 sm | 12 min | NNW 05 | 8 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 41°F | 39°F | 93% | 29.75 |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 19 sm | 10 min | NW 05 | 5 sm | Overcast | Rain | 37°F | 37°F | 100% | 29.80 |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 21 sm | 13 min | NNW 17 | 7 sm | Overcast | Rain | 45°F | 39°F | 81% | 29.76 |
Wind History from NUI
(wind in knots)Mount Holly
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:36 AM EST 1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EST 0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 12:44 PM EST 1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:47 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 07:27 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:36 AM EST 1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EST 0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 12:44 PM EST 1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:47 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 07:27 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Sun -- 02:37 AM EST -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:44 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EST 0.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:53 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:54 PM EST 0.20 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:32 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Sun -- 02:37 AM EST -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:44 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EST 0.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:53 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:54 PM EST 0.20 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:32 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.3 |
| 1 am |
| -0.4 |
| 2 am |
| -0.6 |
| 3 am |
| -0.6 |
| 4 am |
| -0.5 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| -1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE