Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:36PM Sunday July 5, 2020 9:15 PM EDT (01:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 5:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 737 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this evening.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Tuesday. Low pressure will develop to the south Wednesday and it may impact the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 052357 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 757 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast through Monday, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on Wednesday, and lingers along the coast through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Sunday .

Latest analysis indicates weak sfc high pressure centered along the mid-Atlantic coast with a NW flow aloft. The showers/tstms from this morning that developed E of I-95 have diminished and with the shortwave energy also now off the Delmarva coast, conditions have stabilized quite a bit (not even seeing much in the way of cu E of I-95). Overall, the best chance for showers/tstms into the evening will be from storms that have moved off the Appalachians drifting ESE into the Piedmont where ML CAPES are near 3000 J/Kg. (primarily to the N of Farmville). Have PoPs of 30-50% across the Piedmont, tapered to 20-30% into metro RIC, with 20% or less closer to the coast where the onshore flow (and somewhat lower dew pts are making it significantly more stable). Isolated storms capable of producing strong winds into this evening over the NW. PoPs diminish later this evening but have maintained some chance through 06Z acrs the Piedmont. Lows mainly 70-75F with some upper 60s interior southern Va/NE NC.

Heights aloft rise slightly on Mon as do H8 temps. Not expecting any AM convection as the flow becomes S to SSW. Highs will range from the mid 90s in the interior with upper 80s to lower 90s on the coast. Best chance for convection looks to be across the N during the late aftn/evening (~40%) with only about 20% for the southern 1/2 of the CWA. SPC has a marginal risk across the N where somewhat steeper mid level lapse rates and shear could lead to isolated strong/severe storms.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Sunday .

Chance PoPs linger Mon evening across the N, otherwise drying overnight with lows mainly 70-75F. By Tue, developing low pressure across the deep south will slowly move NE closer to the local area, but latest 12Z/05 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local area. Thus, PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just scattered 30-40% coverage from the mid/late aftn into the evening (PoPs staying only around 20% near the coast). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily in the upper 80s at the immediate coast and over most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves E across the Carolinas and then is expected to linger along the Carolina coast by Wed aftn with weak steering flow aloft. Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue night, spreading N on Wed. It will be humid with dew pts into the lower to mid 70s and highs will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more clouds, ranging from the mid 80s S to around 90F N.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Friday .

05/12z global models and associated ensemble suites continue to depict an upper low and broad surface low pressure in vicinity of the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, the general consensus is for this system to lift NE Thursday night into Friday as a strengthening upper level trough drops into the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. Forecast PoPs Thursday range from 20-30% N to 40-50% S, and then 40- 50% across most of the area Friday and Saturday, and trending back toward a 20-30% climo PoP by Sunday. Forecast highs are generally in the mid/upper 80s Thursday, and then upper 80s to low 90s (mid 80s at the immediate coast) Friday through Sunday and these values are very typical for early July. Forecast lows are mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 800 PM EDT Sunday .

VFR under SCT high clouds this evening. A few showers/tstms over the Piedmont are expected to dissipate later this evening and remain W of RIC. Patchy fog is possible after 06z, but is expected to remain over the Piedmont and not affect any of the terminals. Otherwise, a light SE will become SW overnight. Mostly sunny Monday morning with SCT CU developing during the aftn. There is a 30% chc of aftn showers/tstms at RIC, and 20% at SBY/PHF. The wind is expected to be southerly at 8-10kt from late morning through the aftn.

Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate Monday evening, with VFR conditions prevailing Monday night into Tuesday, and a 20-30% chc of aftn showers/tstms Tuesday. At this time, there is a somewhat increased chc of showers/tstms from Wednesday aftn through Friday as low pressure is forecast to become located in vicinity of the Carolinas.

MARINE. As of 330 PM EDT Sunday .

5-10 kt winds across the waters this afternoon, southerly from Cape Charles northward and southeasterly from the mouth of the Ches bay south. Waves are around 1 ft with 2 ft near the mouth of the bay while seas offshore are 2-3 ft.

SSE winds increase to 10-15 kt (highest generally from Cape Henry N) this evening then become S and SSW later tonight. Much of the same is expected for Monday and Tuesday with 5-10 kt SSE flow becoming S and SSW 10-15 in the late afternoon into the evening. Waves generally 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. The picture become a bit murky for the mid/late week period with global models generally agreeing on a trough or closed low aloft over the Mid Atlantic/SE and a modest surface low near the Carolina coast on Wednesday. Thereafter, solutions diverge considerably with respect to the track and timing of the surface low through the region. Went with a blended approach showing increasing onshore flow and seas starting Wednesday night into early Friday from south to north.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 PM EDT Sunday .

Modestly increasing south and southeasterly winds this evening will combine with high astronomical tides tonight into early Monday, resulting in the potential for minor coastal flooding for the bay facing portions of the lower MD eastern shore. Nuisance flooding is also possible along the Northern Neck/Potomac river counties as well as VA portions of the eastern shore this evening and tonight. Additional flooding is possible during the high tide cycle Monday night with continued southerly flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/TMG LONG TERM . AJZ AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . MPR/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi45 min S 7 G 9.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi45 min SSW 6 G 8 81°F 83°F1015 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi45 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 82°F 82°F1014.7 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 82°F 83°F1014.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi21 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 82°F 83°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi45 min SSW 13 G 14 82°F 86°F1014.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi21 min S 12 G 14 83°F1018.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi105 min S 2.9 1014 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi45 min Calm 78°F 1016 hPa73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi45 min SSE 5.1 G 7 82°F 84°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi22 minS 410.00 miFair83°F70°F65%1014.7 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi20 minS 310.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1015.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi23 minSSE 310.00 miFair82°F71°F69%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S4SE4S5S5S4S5SW5CalmS3SW6W64S36SW8SW10S8SW8S8S9S5S6S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmN3NW3CalmCalm4NE9NE8NE6NE764NE5Calm3E4E4SE5SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmW3W44NW4NW43NW5NW6NW4NW5W7SW8W5SW8W6W5W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:33 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.71.91.91.71.30.90.60.3000.30.81.21.51.61.51.20.90.60.30.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.2-0.3-0.7-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.20.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.