Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:16PM Monday January 20, 2020 11:49 PM EST (04:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 937 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the night.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S in the afternoon, then becoming w. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely through the day.
ANZ500 937 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the northern plains during the first half of the week, then move offshore during the second half of the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 210256 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 956 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Much colder air spills across the region tonight through Tuesday . with temperatures slowly moderating for the latter half of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 1000 PM EST Monday .

Latest wx analysis reveals strong/cold 1044+mb sfc high pressure over the northern and central plains. Winds have diminished tonight as the pressure gradient has weakened over the area. Temperatures have quickly falling into the 20s (temperatures remain in the low 30s near the southeast VA coast and northern Outer Banks). Winds chills will be in the teens tonight, not as low as last night with winds diminishing.

Bay streamer has redeveloped over the Chesapeake tonight, cannot rule our a few flurries across Norfolk, VA Beach, Chesapeake tonight. Otherwise, the rest of the area will see clear skies.

Otherwise, clear and cold tonight. Latest model guidance has trended toward winds not totally decoupling once again tonight, which should keep minima from falling quite as far as they could otherwise. Lows mainly in the upper teens to low 20s inland . mid to upper 20s SE coast. Some mid teens possible in typically cooler spots.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 250 PM EST Monday .

Continued cold and dry Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal despite plenty of sunshine. Thickness tools still mesh well with NBM and MOS guidance has consolidated in the mid to upper 30s, which also fits persistence quite well. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the low to mid 20s . to around 30 SE.

Models still showing positively tilted shortwave dropping from the mid-south to the GA/SC coast Tuesday night, eventually forming a closed low Wed morning. Models remain in good agreement in skirting this wave quickly farther offshore, with cyclogenesis occurring well away from the local area. Thus, expect any sensible weather impacts to be well away from the region.

Behind this wave, modifying sfc high builds over the Mid-Atlantic and northeast CONUS on Wednesday. Thicknesses begin to climb, signaling the start of a moderating temp trend that will continue through the upcoming weekend.

Slightly warmer Wednesday with highs climbing to near normal Wed, and just above on Thursday. Highs Wed in the low to mid 40s, under a mainly sunny sky. Lows Wednesday night will inch up a few degrees as well with generally low/mid 20s expected across the region. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s under a partly to mostly clear/sunny sky.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Monday .

The end of the work week will be dry and mild, with high pressure at the sfc and aloft over the region. At the same time, an upper-level trough will be digging south into the Midwest/Central US. The trough will become a closed low and cut off from the main upper-level flow and slowly migrate east. As the closed low pressure aloft moves towards the east coast, it will likely stay northwest of the southern Mid-Atlantic. However, a sfc low will likely develop east of the Appalachian Mountains and track from SW to NE across VA/MD. This will bring an area of rain through the region Saturday morning. As the sfc low moves north of the area, rain will exit the area for Saturday evening/night. However, the low pressure system aloft will still be nearby and may give areas across central and northeastern VA and central Delmarva a few rain showers Saturday afternoon/evening. A NW, downslope, low will begin late Saturday/Sunday and dry the area out.

Throughout the Long Term period, temperatures will be near average to slight above average. Friday's high temperatures will be in the 50s with lows in the 20s/30s Friday morning. As rain moves into the area, temperatures and dew points will increase, temperatures on Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s across northeast NC and southeast VA to mid 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will be dependent on the exact track of the sfc low pressure. High may reach 60 across Hampton Roads and northeast NC, while a CAD wedge may develop in the central VA Piedmont, keeping temperatures in the 40s. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be close to average for late January, highs in the mid-upper 40s and lows in the 20s/30s.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 800 PM EST Monday .

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours across the area. Skies has mostly cleared south of the Chesapeake Bay across southeast VA and the northern Outer Banks. However, a bay streamer has redeveloped over Norfolk (east of KORF) and VA Beach with CIGs FEW-SCT 040-050. Otherwise, clear skies are expected through Tuesday evening. Northerly have decrease from this afternoon and will remain N 5-10 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Wed as cold high pressure builds back across the region.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Monday .

Late this aftn, high pressure was building in from the NW. Strong CAA is resulting in a NNW wind of 15-25 kt for the Bay/ocean/Currituck Snd, and 10-15 kt elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft with 3-4 ft waves in the Bay. The center of the high will continue to build toward the area from the NW tonight into Wed morning, then builds right over the region late Wed through Thu. As a result, N winds will continue to be 15-25 kt over the Bay, Ocean, and Currituck Snd tonight into at least early Wed morning. Waves will be 2-4 ft and seas will be 4-7 ft. Thus, have adjusted SCA headlines in most of these areas through at least Tue aftn or into early Wed morning. Low pressure develops well off the Southeast Coast Tue night into Wed, with the wind becoming NNE with speeds 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt srn Bay, and 20-25 kt for the ocean S of Cape Henry. This will likely maintain at least 5-6 ft seas S, and could remain 6-8 ft Tue/Wed off the nrn Outer Banks. Elsewhere, seas subside to 3-4 ft, with 2-3 ft waves in the Bay.

High pressure builds right over the region Wed night into Thu and slowly slides offshore Fri. Low pressure and an associated cold front passes through the area Fri night into Sat.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ632>634- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . CP/MAM SHORT TERM . MAM/RHR LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . CP MARINE . AJZ/TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi61 min N 12 G 13
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi55 min 31°F 38°F1030.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi31 min NW 9.7 G 12 30°F 43°F1029.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi55 min 30°F 43°F1029.8 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi55 min 28°F 40°F1030 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi55 min 26°F 35°F1030.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi37 min NE 18 G 21 44°F1033 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi139 min WNW 1 1030 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi79 min N 2.9 30°F 1031 hPa16°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi55 min 29°F 39°F1030 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi56 minVar 310.00 miFair33°F10°F38%1029.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi62 minNNW 3 miFair28°F5°F37%1030.5 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair26°F10°F52%1030.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi2 hrsNNW 1110.00 miFair30°F10°F43%1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmS7S5S6SE10S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:56 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:11 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:48 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.80.50.2-0-0.100.30.81.21.41.51.51.20.90.50.30-0.100.30.711.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 12:44 AM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     0.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:18 PM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EST     0.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.50.70.70.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.300.20.2-0.1-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.