Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:50 PM EDT (03:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 6:24AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms late this evening, then isolated showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will move into the western atlantic through tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, and cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 190227
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1027 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through the weekend.

A trough of low pressure lingers across the area tonight, then
pushes south into the carolinas Friday. A cold front approaches from
the west Monday, ending the current heat wave.

Near term until 8 am Friday morning
As of 1000 pm edt Thursday...

latest analysis indicates a sfc trough across the region that
has aided in sustaining tstms through the CWA this evening.

Finally seeing the coverage and intensity weakening now over he
past hr and should see these trends continue through 06z. Some
locally heavy rain minor flooding and even isolated strong to
severe wind has been observed earlier this evening with the
storms. Will linger 20-30% pops along the coast through 06-09z,
with generally diminishing cloud cover. Warm and muggy
overnight with lows in the lower- mid 70s W of i-95 and mainly
in the mid to upper 70s to the e.

Short term 8 am Friday morning through Sunday
As of 345 pm edt Thursday...

old fashion heat wave setting up this weekend with the highest heat
index values around these parts since july 2012. It starts Fri but
lingering trof boundary may spark off some late day storms across
sern va NE nc. Will carry low chc pops across the se, otw mstly
sunny hot. Highs 95-100 combined with dew points in the mid-up 70s
results in heat index values 105-110 over most of the fa except arnd
110 (excessive heat warning criteria) across portions of the east
and se. Warm and muggy Fri night. Lows 75-80.

The heat peaks Sat as the airmass stays capped. Mstly sunny hot and
humid with highs upr 90s-lwr 100s except mid 90s along the coast.

Widespread heat index values btwn 110-115 will likely lead to an
excessive heat warning across most of the fa. Warm and Sat night.

Lows mid 70s-lwr 80s.

Continued mstly sunny hot and humid sun. The cap breaks down a bit
late in the day allowing for sct convection to drift east off the
blue ridge and into the piedmont. Highs 95-100 with heat index
values 105-112.

Heat related headlines include a heat advsry (105-110) Fri for all
zones except sern va NE nc where an excessive heat warning (around
110) will be issue from Fri thru late Sat given the high confidence
in the Sat forecast and little if any cooling at Fri night. Sunday
is still a bit in question at this point so plan on holding off on
any headlines for now. Plenty of time to extend them as needed.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 415 pm edt Thursday...

guidance continues to suggest a fairly abrupt cool down by
Tuesday as a long wave trough sets up across the eastern half of
the country. The associated cold front will approach the area
Monday and then slowly move across the region Monday afternoon
into Monday night. This will lead to another hot day on Monday,
although likely not as hot as Saturday and Sunday, especially
due the clouds and numerous showers storms in the afternoon in
advance of the front. Still, expect highs well into the lower-
mid 90s with dew points in the middle 70s, so especially the
eastern half of the forecast area may need another heat related
headline. In addition, with the frontal passage, there is
certainly a risk for severe weather with stronger wind fields
aloft due to the lowering heights.

The front takes some time to pass south of the area with it
really not passing south of the area until Tuesday morning per
the gfs. The front then stalls south just south of the area
until it finally pushes further south on Thursday. As such,
there should be plenty of clouds and some showers especially
south on Tuesday. Will continue with chance pops across the
area, with likely pops far south Tue afternoon. Perhaps less
showers and clouds on Wednesday, but with the front nearby will
need to maintain chance pops across the south. Much of the area
dry Thursday, although small chance pops south. Highs generally
dropping back to the low-mid 80s for Tue and wed, then mid-upper
80s Thursday with more sunshine.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
As of 735 pm edt Thursday...

prevailingVFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the
00z TAF period. Tstms have developed and are ongoing across
central south-central va... With additional tstms across the va
northern neck. Expect these tstms to continue to move eastward
during the next few hours before slowly weakening after 02-03z. Ric
will be impacted by 00z, while tstms are possible at orf phf by
~02z. Included a tempo group for tsra at ric, while only mentioning
vcsh at orf phf. The chc of tstms is lower at sby ecg, but will
continue to amend the tafs if needed. Once again, MVFR cigs, gusty
winds, and ifr vsbys are likely in any tstm. Showers (and even a few
tstms) may linger INVOF SE va through 04-06z before completely
dissipating. SW winds will remain AOB 12 kt through the TAF period.

Outlook... Bermuda high pressure dominates over the weekend capping
any convection from developing Fri Sat (w the exception of a chc of
aftn tstms across NE nc). The high breaks down a bit Sun allowing
for some late day convection over the piedmont. A better and more
widespread chc for convection comes later Mon as a cold front
approaches the area.&&

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Thursday...

generally quiet marine conditions through the weekend with the
bermuda high remaining parked SE of the area through the
weekend. Still seeing south- southwest wind at 10-15kt this
afternoon. However, these southerly winds should relax to 5-10kt
tonight and remain at 5-10 Friday into Fri evening. Will
increase winds to south- southwest 10-15 kt Saturday into
Monday. A cold front will pass across the waters Monday night
into Tue morning leading to winds shifting to the N to NE for
tue into wed. SE swell of 3-4 ft will continue over the open
waters with waves 1-2 ft in the bay.

Climate
* due to unrepresentative temperatures at the norfolk intl
airport today (the ASOS reported a daily MAX of 97f), the high
temperature from the co- op station was used for today with a
high of 94f. This matches close to surrounding sites (ngu was
93f and the va tech installed mesonet station close to orf was
94f).

Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
thu (7 18) 101 1977 77 2005
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
thu (7 18) 104 1942 79 1995
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
thu (7 18) 100 2012 78 2012
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
thu (7 18) 107 1942 79 2012
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Equipment
As of 130 pm edt Thursday...

kakq radar is back to normal operation.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Friday for mdz021>025.

Nc... Excessive heat warning from 11 am Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for ncz012>017-030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Friday for vaz048-060>062-
064>069-075>086-099-100-509>522.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for vaz087>090-092-093-095>098-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Lkb mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mrd
aviation... Eri mpr
marine... Mrd
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi51 min SW 5.1 G 7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi57 min SW 8.9 G 11 78°F 87°F1012.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi51 min SW 11 G 14 81°F 83°F1011.9 hPa (+1.1)
NCDV2 22 mi57 min SSW 8.9 G 11 82°F 87°F1011.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi51 min WSW 11 G 13 83°F 1012.8 hPa (+0.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi57 min WSW 11 G 12 84°F 88°F1012.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi57 min 83°F 87°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi58 minSSW 610.00 miThunderstorm84°F73°F72%1012.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi68 minSSW 310.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1013.2 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi76 minS 410.00 miLight Rain75°F75°F100%1013.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi59 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F75°F85%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:41 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:19 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.81.21.61.71.81.61.20.90.60.30.20.20.50.91.21.51.61.51.20.90.60.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-1-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.30.30.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.