Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 29, 2021 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:46PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 744 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 402 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt...becoming W late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this evening, then scattered showers with isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming e. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 744 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area through this evening before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another area of low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 292346 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 746 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track by north of the local area tonight to be followed by its trailing cold front during Fri. The front stalls across the Carolinas by Saturday. Low pressure moves east along the front Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 745 PM EDT Thursday .

Isolated supercell continues to drop SSE east of the Richmond metro. This long-lived cell has a history of wind damage and has shown impressive hail signatures on radar. If the cell can manage to hold together it could impact the Williamsburg area and areas to the south and southeast. The environment across the region remains supportive of strong to severe storms but will little forcing to trigger any new convection. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402 is in effect until 9pm.

Additional showers with a chance of thunder could impact the NE portion of the area including the MD eastern shore and Northern Neck after midnight tonight. Lows tonight in the low 70s N to the mid and upper 70s S.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 310 PM EDT Thursday .

The cold front progresses into/through srn/SE portions of the FA Fri Right now. SPC has MRGL along/S of the Albemarle Sound . still will carry 20-30% far srn/SE VA across NE NC before the frontal passage. Will be another hot/humid day (heat indices topping out around 100F one last day in this stretch) across srn/SE VA and NE NC (pre-frontal passage) while drying/lowering dew points occurs over central/nrn portions. Highs in the u80s-l90s.

Any lingering SHRAs/tstms Fri evening likely to diminish/end early. Period of NNE winds (gusty at the coast) and cold/dry air advection Fri night into Sat ends the recent period of high humidity heading into the weekend. Low Fri night in the l60s N to around 70F far SE.

The front stalls across the Carolinas by Sat. Expecting mostly sunny conditions N and partly sunny S and very comfy for the last day of July Highs in the l80s. u70s right along the coast/beaches.

This time of year . hard to keep the dry/cooler wx here. Hi pres shifts off the SE coast of New England Sat night leading to a quick return of moisture from the SSW. A series of lo pres systems forecast to moves along the stalled front (across NC). Increasing PoPs to 50-70% (mainly SHRAs) for late Sat night into Sun afternoon along w/ widespread clouds. Lows Sat night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Sun in the 70s to l80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 100 PM EDT Thursday .

Unsettled wx conditions expected early/mid next week as trough aloft amplifies through Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys. Initially a frontal boundary is forecast to push just offshore Sun night/Mon then due to the trough digging in to the W of the FA . the front would likely back WNW into the local area through mid week. The overall pattern setting up is fairly typical for mid Summer (and fits an MJO forecast of a transition from phase 6 to phases 8 and 1 - favoring BLO normal temps and near-ABV normal pcpn) and usually leads to a few/several days of high potential for SHRAs/tstms and psbl heavy rainfall. Have capped PoPs at 50% through the period.

Nighttime lows through the period mainly from the m60s to around 70F. Highs Mon 80-85F. Highs Tue in the l80s. Highs Wed and Thu in the l-m80s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 745 PM EDT Thursday .

Will show prevailing VFR at all sites through the 00z TAF period. One exception could be PHF where a long-lived supercell continues to drop SSE toward the terminal. Current trajectory would keep the core of the cell a bit to the west of PHF. Will include VCTS at PHF and VCSH at ORF for lingering precip this evening. Elsewhere, mostly dry tonight with SCT/BKN mid level cloud debris. A few showers or storms could impact SBY after midnight so have included VCSH for this period. SW winds 10-15 kt become NW 5-10 by mid morning Friday behind a weak cold front. Additional storms are possible at ECG once heating gets underway on Friday. Confidence in coverage and placement is too low to include in the forecast at this time.

Generally VFR Fri night/Sat though NNE winds become gusty near the coast. Lo pres tracking across NC Sun may result in IFR/MVFR conditions and psbl SHRAs.

MARINE. As of 320 PM EDT Thursday .

A cold front moves over the local waters late tonight into Friday. Ahead of the front, winds are S/SW 10-15 kt, becoming SW 15-20 kt late this evening into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James, and Currituck Sound from 8 PM through most of the night. As the cold front moves through late tonight through Fri morning, winds shift to NW/N 10-15 kt, remaining N 10-15 kt through Fri night. Winds may approach SCA criteria with the CAA surge late Fri night into early Sat, but for now, expect winds to remain around 15 kt. Winds switch from NE 5-10 kt to SE Sat into Sat night, remaining SE 10-15 kt through Sun. Another cold front comes through Sun night with winds shifting back to N Mon.

Waves of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively overnight before subsiding back to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft by Fri afternoon through early next week. Seas may approach or briefly touch 5 ft tonight, but confidence is too low to issue a SCA at this time.

Moderate rips expected Sat.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ631>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . ALB LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . RHR MARINE . RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi57 min SW 8 G 8.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi57 min SSW 6 G 7 84°F 84°F1010.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi57 min SSW 7 G 8 83°F 84°F1010 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 12 79°F 87°F1009.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi57 min SSE 7 G 8.9 83°F 1009.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi45 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 83°F2 ft1010.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi57 min S 11 G 14 83°F 84°F1010.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi45 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 83°F1 ft1012 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi81 min SW 5.1 73°F 1010 hPa70°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi81 min Calm 85°F 1011 hPa77°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi57 min S 7 G 9.9 82°F 84°F1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi58 minSSW 57.00 miA Few Clouds87°F76°F70%1009.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi56 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1011.2 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi56 minWSW 32.50 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain82°F81°F95%1011.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi59 minS 49.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F76°F75%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmE5E4SE3E3SE5CalmE4CalmCalmSE3S4S8S9SW6SW6SW556SW5S8S6S5
1 day agoSE5S3S3S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NE6NE55NE545NE6E5E4NW3Calm
2 days agoCalmSW7SW4SW6SW8SW6SW3W4CalmW3CalmCalmNW4W4W3SW4SW7SW5S6SE7SW5SE3S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
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Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.40.71.11.41.61.61.51.10.80.50.30.20.20.611.31.61.71.61.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.50.50.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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