Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday April 9, 2020 6:16 PM EDT (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 437 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers through the night.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with tstms likely through the day, then showers likely in the evening. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Strong westerly winds will continue through tonight behind a passing cold front. High pressure will gradually build overhead tonight through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and low pressure will pass through the waters Sunday night into Monday. A cold front will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday into Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 092019 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 419 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure over New England and high pressure building in from the west will keep conditions windy and dry through Friday in the wake of a cold front. The high moves over the region Saturday then off the Carolina coast late Saturday afternoon. The next low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday, and moves through the local area Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Windy this afternoon as the low over New England deepens and high pressure builds in from the west. The westerly flow has been very dry limiting precip as dewpoints inland were generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Wind will decrease some with loss of mixing though expect some breeze will persist. Lows tonight will be cool dropping into the upper 30s Piedmont and mainly 40-45F elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Dry and windy Fri as intense sfc low pressure will be off the coast of Maine with high pressure building ESE from the Tennessee Valley. A wind Advisory is in effect for the Eastern Shore where wind gusts will be strongest though winds gusting to near 40 mph across central VA are expected. Highs Fri will be cooler only ranging from the mid 50s well inland to 60F across the southeast VA and northeast NC. Dewpoints will fall into the upper to lower 20s and along with winds continuing to gust to 30-40 mph resulting in Fire Wx concerns (see Fire WX section). Winds diminish Fri night and overnight lows will be determined by how much of the area decouples. Enough wind might remain over locations near the Bay and Eastern Shore to keep things mixed some overnight. Current forecast is for lows around 32F in much of the Piedmont, mostly low to mid 30s central and interior E/SE VA, and upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast. Frost/Freeze products may be needed for early Sat morning. Temps should rebound quickly into the lower 60s Saturday with mid to upper 50s along the Eastern Shore under sunny skies. Not as cold Sat night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next storm system approached late Sunday and into Early Monday morning. SPC has placed southeast VA and northeast NC in an extended outlook for potential severe weather. A lot will depend upon the progression of the upper pattern and dynamics, but there is the potential for some damaging severe wind late Sunday night into early Monday morning. How far north the severe weather potential reaches is still in question.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Thursday .

Strong cold front crosses the region late Monday afternoon into the evening hours with rain chances coming to an end across the east and westerly winds behind the boundary. Drier air and cooler temps will follow the front with overnight lows Monday night falling into the mid 40s across the west and upper 40s and low 50s for areas near and east of I-95. High temps Tuesday rise into the low to mid 60s with a few locations in the upper 60s over far SE VA and NE NC.

Southwesterly flow aloft will interact with developing low pressure over the northern Gulf Coast to bring a chance for rain back to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing differences between the global spectral models preclude anything greater than chance PoPs at this time. However, northerly surface flow and increased cloud cover will keep temperatures below climatological norms on Wednesday, generally in the upper 50s and low 60s. Cooler still Wednesday night with lows falling into the upper 30s across the Piedmont with low 40s elsewhere. Will maintain PoPs aob 30% into Thursday pending better model consensus in subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 230 PM EDT Thursday .

All sire are VFR with west to southeast winds 15 to 20 kt gusting to 30 kt. There was an area of shower passing well north of SBY and it appears most of the activity will remain north of SBY this afternoon. There is the chance for an isolated shower with the front, but airmass is rather dry. Expect winds to persist until sunset with some decrease this evening though conditions will not go calm.

Conditions become very windy once again Fri shortly after sunrise with NW winds gusting to 25-35kt (potentially even higher at KSBY). Less wind/dry Fri night and Sat. Rain chances increase for Sunday with flight restrictions possible.

MARINE. As of 415 PM EDT Thursday .

Late this aftn, a strong cold front was pushing through the waters. Winds were west to northwest 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves were 1-3 ft, and seas were 2-4 ft.

Strong WNW winds will continue over the waters tonight through Fri night, as low pressure moves from New England NE into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the WNW. Expect wind speeds 15-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt over the waters, with waves 2-4 ft and seas 3-6 ft. So, SCAs remain in effect for all the waters into Fri night, with a Gale Warning in effect for the 3 nrn coastal waters from early Fri morning through Fri evening.

High pressure builds back into and over the region for later Fri night into Sat aftn, then slides off the coast Sat evening into early Sun morning. This will allow the winds to relax and seas to calm over the weekend before another system impacts the region late Sun into Mon.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 230 PM EDT Thursday .

Min RHs will be around 25% or even a little lower over much of VA and NC on Fri. Wind will increase quickly after sunrise with gusts to 30 mph and stronger. Fuel moisture this afternoon was around 8 to 11 percent. This poses some fire concerns for Friday and mwill warrant an Increased Fire Danger Statement for VA, MD and NC

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

The next high tide cycle this evening and tonight will once again be the higher of the high tides and push water levels near to just below flood stage. Have issued a Coastal Flood Statement to highlight up to a half foot to one foot of inundation in vulnerable areas especially along the Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for MDZ021>025. NC . None. VA . Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for VAZ099-100. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634. Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/JAO LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . LKB/JAO MARINE . JDM/TMG FIRE WEATHER . AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi46 min N 25 G 31
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi46 min NNW 17 G 23 65°F 62°F994.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi34 min NW 25 G 29 63°F 994.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi46 min NW 21 G 34 59°F 56°F995.2 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi46 min NNW 12 G 22 60°F 61°F995.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi34 min NW 27 G 33 57°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi46 min NNW 25 G 34 62°F 63°F994.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi70 min NW 19 G 23 58°F996.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi106 min NNW 15 995 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi46 min NW 5.1 74°F 994 hPa42°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi46 min NW 30 G 38 58°F 59°F995.2 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi23 minNW 11 G 2910.00 miFair64°F37°F38%995.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi30 minNW 11 G 2110.00 miFair59°F32°F36%996.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi21 minW 11 G 2710.00 miFair69°F31°F25%995.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi24 minNNW 19 G 3110.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy61°F39°F46%996 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3E4E6SE4SW11
G23
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE3S5CalmCalmS3CalmS3SW3W4NW6
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2 days agoNE3NE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS63SE7S7SW6SW6CalmE95
G28
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:16 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:20 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.71.31.8221.71.30.80.40.1-0.1-00.30.81.31.71.81.71.30.90.50.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.50.1-0.3-0.7-1-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.40.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.