Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:32PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 735 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 735 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build from the tennessee valley toward new england through Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from the great lakes and weakens. A strong area of low pressure will move across the ohio valley Wednesday, then re-develop over southeastern virginia and move up the coast toward new england Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday through Friday, with gales possible Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 142257
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
657 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves across the local area through Tuesday. Rain
chances increase early Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold
front. Clearing with gusty winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

Dry and pleasant Friday and Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 700 pm edt Monday...

skc tonight W light winds. Have included patchy fg over parts
of ERN srn SE va and NE nc (mainly after midnight) due to the
late clearing today (limiting too much drying). Lows from the
m-u40s along-w of i-95 to the l-m50s e.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
As of 215 pm edt Monday...

dry and pleasant wx Tue W mainly skc and highs in the l70s n
and m70s central s. Winds turn to the SE by afternoon as sfc hi
pres drifts off the coast ahead of lo pres over the great lakes.

Secondary lo pres will form over the carolinas Tue night into
early wed. Onset of higher pops spreading from SW to NE late tue
night through Wed morning. Some much needed rain will impact
the area from about mid morning through early afternoon. Highs
in the m60s NW to m70s se. Forecast soundings do show some
meager instability across the E and SE portions Wed afternoon
ahead of the cold front so have continued W a slgt chc t
mention in those areas. Pops trend downward quickly by late wed
afternoon evening as gusty wnw winds begin to usher in
cooler dry air.

Winds stay up Wed night... ESP E of i-95. Otw... Skc and cool wed
night W from the l-m40s W of i-95 to the l50s at the coast.

Deep layered wnw flow Thu as hi pres remains W of the mountains.

Still a bit breezy (even windy near the coast) W a partly
cloudy sky. Highs in the l-m60s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 130 pm edt Monday...

sfc hi pres moves across the fa fri-sat resulting in dry near
seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high as it moves off the
coast Sun through Mon will likely bring an increase in moisture
(and pops) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the
midwest - initially inland during sun... Then all areas by sun
night mon.

Lows Thu night 40-45f inland to around 50f at the immediate
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night in the l-m40s
inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast). Highs Sat in the
u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at
the coast. Highs Sun in the l70s at the coast and m70s elsewhere.

Highs Mon from the l70s N to the u70s far se.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 700 pm edt Monday...

vfr thru the forecast period as high pres dominates. Sct high clouds
tue along with ese winds at less than 10 kts.

Outlook...

a strong cold front crosses the region Wed with shras (psbl tstms
along the coast) and flight restrictions. Period of gusty wnw winds
post cold front Wed night-early thu.VFR Wed night-fri.

Marine
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

late this aftn, a weak cold front was laying acrs NE nc, while
sfc high pressure was over the oh valley and ky. This front will
push SE of the area this evening, then another weak cold front
will cross the waters early Tue morning. While winds will
increase, the CAA and pressure gradient is too weak for
issuance of any SCA headlines. N NE winds at up to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt will be possible. NE winds 5-15 kt tue
morning will become E at 5-10 kt during the aftn. Sub-sca
conditions then prevail through Tue night, before another area
of low pressure is progged to impact the area on wed, followed
by a much stronger cold front Wed night. Solid scas (due to
winds) look likely Wed night-thu behind the front. Local wind
probabilities are starting to latch onto ~50% chance for gale
gusts at buoy 44009 by Wed night, and expect that gales may be
needed over the northern coastal waters. Due to the offshore nw
flow, seas will not build that much despite the strong winds,
generally to 4-6 ft while waves in the bay build to ~4 ft with
2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current forecast has winds
remaining AOA sca thresholds for bay and coast through ~12z
fri. Sub-sca conditions return by late fri, as high pressure
settles over the waters.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

nuisance to minor flooding is still occurring across sound side
portions of NE nc, so will issue a coastal flood statement
through this evening to cover this. SW to W winds shifting to
the N or NE may help push much of this water back out of the
sound towards the ocean this evening with falling water levels
expected.

The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches through
Tuesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rhr
near term... Alb
short term... Alb rhr
long term... Alb
aviation... Mpr
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi62 min E 5.1 G 6
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi62 min SSW 1 G 1 65°F 67°F1016.4 hPa (+1.3)
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi32 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 69°F1019.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi62 min E 1 G 1.9 65°F 70°F1016.3 hPa (+1.4)
NCDV2 22 mi62 min WSW 1 G 1.9 63°F 1015.4 hPa (+1.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi32 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 68°F 1017.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi62 min S 7 G 7 66°F 68°F1017 hPa (+1.4)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi32 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 70°F1020.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi152 min SSW 1 67°F 1015 hPa55°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi92 min SW 1 61°F 1017 hPa60°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi62 min S 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 68°F1016.4 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi69 minNE 310.00 miFair63°F55°F76%1016.1 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair57°F57°F100%1016.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi70 minS 410.00 miFair62°F54°F75%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3N3NE3CalmCalm3W3W4SW7SW8SW7SW6SW3W4S6E3NE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm45NE4NE7NE8NE7NE9NE6NE4NE7E333NE5N3NE5CalmCalm
2 days agoE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmS4W5S3SW5S4SE3SE5E4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:02 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:11 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.31.61.61.51.20.80.50.20.20.20.511.41.61.71.71.410.70.40.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.30.60.50.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.