Monday, February24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairmount, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:51PM Monday February 24, 2020 4:39 PM EST (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:33AMMoonset 6:52PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 339 Pm Est Mon Feb 24 2020
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Periods of rain with areas of drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Periods of rain with areas of drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of drizzle. Areas of fog.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle with a chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ500 339 Pm Est Mon Feb 24 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move into the midwest through this evening while high pressure remains offshore. The low will move into the ohio valley late tonight through Tuesday and the warm front associated with the low will stall out near the waters. A stronger low and its associated cold front will approach the waters Wednesday before passing through Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead late in the week. Small craft advisory conditions are expected Wednesday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairmount, MD
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location: 38.11, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 242041 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 341 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift across the region late tonight and early Tuesday. Low pressure will impact the area with unsettled conditions tonight through midweek. Markedly cooler, drier weather returns to the region late in the week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 340 PM EST Monday .

Latest analysis reveals ~1024mb sfc high pressure offshore of the southeast coast. To the W, an area of low pressure continues to lift E-NE from the Mid MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. First slug of overrunning is pushing off of the lower mid-atlantic coast this afternoon, with little more than some sct showers along the coastal plain, and some spotty sprinkles inland. A warm front over the Carolina coastal plain down into the Deep South will lift north across the area late tonight through early Tuesday morning. Clouds will continue to lower this evening, with likely to categorical PoPs overnight with next slug of overrunning moisture pushing across the area. Temperatures will remain mild . perhaps even rising slightly overnight . as the warm front lifts north tonight and the system to our west slows/stalls over the Midwest. Widespread showers areawide overnight, with lows in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EST Monday .

The aforementioned system will slowly lift from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday, before moving into srn Quebec Wednesday night. This will result in another round of rainfall . in the form of scattered showers Wednesday aftn and night. With the warm front lifting north of the area Tuesday morning and a cold front being slow to advance from the west (12z suite of models are even slower with timing), PoPs will actually decrease Tuesday afternoon through Wed morning.

Kicker for the cold front finally comes In the form of a potent shortwave trough diving across the central and southern plains on Wednesday. this will serve to finally drive the strong cold front across the local area by Wed night. Will have chc PoPs 30-40% most areas Wednesday morning, then increasing to 50-70% west in the afternoon. Will continue with 30-60% PoPs Wed night (highest north) as the cold front passes and the best energy lifts north of the local area. Total QPF through Wed night will be in the 0.4-0.7" range.

Mild temperatures will persist through midweek and will range from the mid-upr 50s N to the mid-60s S both Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temps Tues night will be in the mid-40s N to the mid-50s S, and low 30s NW to low 40s SE on Wed night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 145 PM EST Monday .

Colder temperatures are on the way for the medium range forecast period. Probabilistic models and ensembles remain in good agreement with respect to persistent upper troughing over the east, with a developing upper ridge over the western CONUS. This will result in (modified) cold, dry Canadian air draining down across the eastern two-thirds of the country late this week through early next week. Only real change for the period is to increase clouds a bit later Fri/Friday night in association with a clipper system dropping across the area. Moisture appears limited, so PoPs have been held out for now. Only sensible impacts come in the form of . first, some more cloudiness on Friday/Fri night and second, the reinforcing shot of cold air behind this departing system. Highs expected to be only in the 40s over the weekend (some highs in the upper 30s possible in typical cool spots on Saturday).

Low temps on Thu night will range from the mid-20s in the NW and low 30s in the SE. Low temps on Fri/Sat nights will be the coldest, with lows each night ranging from the low 20s in the NW to the low 30s in the SE. High temps Thu/Fri will range from the upper 40s in the NW to the mid- 50s in the SE, before maxima drop to 40-45 in the NW . 45-50 in the SE next weekend.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 100 PM EST Monday .

VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon will persist through early this evening. Mainly overcast conditions across the area with CIGs between 5-8 KFT AGL. Lowering clouds late this aftn and this evening, with sub-VFR conditions (CIGs/VSBY) expected for all terminals between 00z- 03z Tue (03z at SBY), lowering to IFR (tempo LIFR possible) at all terminals by 06z/1am Tue thru Tue morning, as showers overspread the area. SSW winds will generally range from 5 to 10 knots through the day today and tonight.

OUTLOOK . Sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs will continue through Tue morning, as a warm front lifts across the region. A cold front will cross the area Wed night/early Thu, with gusty winds expected post- frontal Thursday. Periods of rain/patchy fog can be expected through the late night hours tonight through Tue morning frame . with another period of showers possible Wed aftn and evening. VFR conditions returning Thu and through the latter half of the week.

MARINE. As of 320 PM EST Monday .

Late this afternoon, high pressure was centered offshore of the Atlantic coast of the CONUS, while an area of low pressure was slowly tracking east-northeastward along the MO/AR border. The wind is S 5-10 kt S and SSW 12-15 kt N. Seas are 2-3 ft. The low will continue to track ENE into the Ohio Valley tonight, before slowing down and (temporarily) weakening on Tuesday. Winds increase slightly this evening (to 15 kt N/10-12 kt S). May even see some gusts of ~20 kt at elevated sites on the nrn Ches Bay this evening. Winds weaken tonight as the pressure gradient slackens some while a weak boundary becomes situated over the waters. Seas remain 2-3 ft over most areas through tonight (w/ some 4 ft seas possible across the far nrn coastal waters) This boundary lingers across the area on Tuesday before dropping just south of the waters by 12z/7 AM Wednesday. The wind will be SE 8-14 kt (highest over the ocean) on Tuesday before becoming light/variable Tuesday evening. The wind turns to the NE w/ speeds of 5-10 kt early Wednesday morning. The boundary retreats north on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front, which crosses the coast Wednesday night. The wind will shift to the W behind the cold front. Could see a brief (< 3 hour) period of 25-35 kt gusts immediately following the frontal passage before sustained wind speeds increase to ~20 kt on the bay/20-25 kt over the ocean (highest north) by Thursday morning while a cold upper trough builds across the ern CONUS. SCA conditions look increasingly likely over a majority of the waters (including the rivers) late Wed night-Thursday. The aforementioned upper trough will remain in place through at least Saturday (and potentially into Sunday). This will bring periodic SCA conditions from Thu night-Sat night with a W or NW wind due to ongoing (especially nocturnal) CAA. At this time seas are not expected to build to more than 4-6 ft Thursday through Saturday due to an offshore component to the wind, with 2-4 ft waves on the Ches Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM/MAM SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . JDM/MAM MARINE . AJZ/ERI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 13 mi58 min S 11 G 13 46°F 45°F1015.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 27 mi34 min SW 9.7 G 16 49°F 44°F1015.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 34 mi58 min S 8 G 11 52°F 43°F1015.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 34 mi58 min SW 13 G 17 53°F 44°F1015.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi52 min SSW 11 G 12 53°F 44°F1014.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 36 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 6 48°F 47°F1017 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi52 min S 5.1 G 7
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi52 min S 12 G 13 1017.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi58 min SW 13 G 17 48°F 45°F1017.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi34 min S 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 1015 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi40 min S 7.8 G 9.7 44°F1 ft1020.6 hPa
OCSM2 44 mi160 min 2 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA23 mi46 minS 910.00 miOvercast48°F44°F86%1016.5 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi46 minSSW 1110.00 miOvercast51°F39°F64%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S7S7S9S7S8S9S6S7S4SW4W4CalmCalmS5SW4SW7SW4S8S8S9S8S9
1 day agoW4SW5SW8SW9SW7SW7SW5SW6SW7SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NE443SE9S7S9S9
2 days agoN6N4W3W5NW5NW3W3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmW3W4W4CalmW5W10W11W10W6SW8W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Teague Creek, Manokin River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Teague Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:23 PM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.821.91.51.10.60.1-0.1-0.10.20.81.41.92.22.11.91.40.90.40.1-0.10.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EST     0.56 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:08 PM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:20 PM EST     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.50.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.70.60.40.1-0.3-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.