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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 215 Pm Pst Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming W this afternoon. Patchy dense fog.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 knots. Areas of dense fog.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Areas of dense fog.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy dense fog. Rain likely.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 knots. Patchy dense fog. Rain.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

PZZ500 215 Pm Pst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
light winds continue across the waters, except near point sur where breezy northerly winds will persist until Tuesday morning. Possibly another round of dense fog will be over the san francisco bay, san pablo bay, and the delta early Tuesday morning and will diminish towards the early afternoon. Elevated seas between 12-17 feet waves will persist for much of the week as a series of large, long period northwest swells propagate through the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft operators. Chances of rain over the waters will begin Tuesday night through the end of the work week.

FXUS66 KSTO 042117 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 117 PM PST Mon Dec 4 2023

Synopsis
Areas of dense fog in the Valley expected tomorrow morning, mainly from Chico southward. Rain and mountain snow chances pick up late Tuesday night and persist through Thursday.

Discussion
Areas of dense fog across the Valley was observed this morning with several sites dropping at or below one-fourth statue miles of visibility. Otherwise, today should be a quiet day across the area. Fog will repeat tomorrow with another round throughout the Valley as winds remain low, expecting to burn off by late tomorrow morning. Temperatures will continue their warming trend today and tomorrow warming to mid 60s across the Valley with 50s and 40s across the foothills and mountains.

This shifts tomorrow as the pattern evolves with the ridge over the West Coast progressing eastward as an upper-level troughing pattern shifts into the Pacific NW. Rain moves over the Coastal Range and west side of the Valley, beginning Tuesday night and spreads into the Valley and Sierra. We remain in an unsettled weather pattern through Thursday night as the trough axis swings through Northern CA. Rain moves into the Sacramento area by Wednesday morning with rates increasing in the late afternoon and evening. For Wednesday through Thursday morning, WPC forecasts 0.10-0.50" for Red Bluff southward across the Valley with .60-1.25" across the foothills and Northern Sacramento Valley. The mountainous areas will see 0.80-1.50". NBM probabilities show a 30-70% chance of exceeding 0.50" from Red Bluff to Sacramento with probabilities increasing as you travel along I-5. Generally amounts increase as you move northward, aligning with the higher moisture amounts coming from the system in the Pacific NW. Snow levels of 6500-7500 feet Wednesday morning, decrease to 4000-5000 feet by Thursday morning. Snow amounts will around 2-4" across the Central Sierra with 6-12" near Lassen National Park. NBM probabilities indicate a 25-55% chance of amounts exceeding 4 inches. Additionally, winds on Wednesday increase along the Sierra and portions of the Valley as the trough moves through Northern CA. Wind gusts 25 MPH to 45 MPH across the Sierra through Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Precipitation will continue on Thursday, albeit more concentrated over the mountains and Northern Sacramento Valley. The Valley will around a tenth or less and from I-80 to the Northern Sacramento Valley a quarter of an inch to an half inch. Light snow accumulation along and south of Hwy. 50 and another 1-3" near and north of I-80. Temperatures will be in a cooling trend with the increased cloud cover and precipitation with Valley afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and 40s and 30s in the foothills and mountains.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
The upper level trough that brought precipitation to the area will move off the east and our area will be placed under ridging that will develop off-shore. There is still a chance for some lingering showers over the Northern Sierra very early Friday morning, but they will quickly move out of the area, with no significant accumulations expected. Saturday, the NBM and GFS are showing rain showers developing mainly over Shasta County with very light rainfall totals, however the ECMWF keeps precip chances to the Northwest. Clusters and ensembles generally agree on ridging through the weekend, but start to differ as we reach Monday. Some ensembles have the ridge breaking down but cluster analysis keeps the area under the influence of ridging, so forecast confidence remains low on what pattern the area will be in starting the next work week. Temperatures during the extended period will be in the 50s and rising into the 60s for the Valley through the weekend. Higher elevations will start in the 40s and rise to the 50s through the weekend.

AVIATION
Areas fog return again tonight, with MVFR/IFR/LIFR in BR/FG from 06Z-19Z Tuesday (50-80% probability of 1/4 SM visibility, with dense fog in the Valley and Delta, mainly from CIC southward).
Surface winds will remain below 10 kts. Similar foggy conditions expected tomorrow morning. //EK

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bishop Cut
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Mon -- 05:22 AM PST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:22 PM PST     3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:46 PM PST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 10:45 PM PST     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bishop Cut, Disappointment Slough, San Joaquin River, California, Tide feet

Vulcan Island .5 mi E
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Mon -- 02:15 AM PST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:23 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:54 AM PST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:34 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 PM PST     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:43 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:04 PM PST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:52 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vulcan Island .5 mi E, San Joaquin River, California Current, knots

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