Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nanticoke, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly sunny skies this afternoon, mild inland and cooler at the coast.

- Remaining dry on Thursday with inland temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80.

This afternoon, the cold front that dropped through the region this morning is now located just south of the forecast area with much drier air filtering in its wake. Skies have become mostly sunny outside of some higher clouds. Temperatures range from the low to mid 70s inland to 60s at the coast (due to an onshore breeze). Mostly clear and cool tonight with diminishing winds and high pressure building north of the area. Lows will range from the mid 40s to around 50 inland and lower 50s at the immediate coast.

High pressure becomes centered off the southern New England/northern mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Thursday with near to slightly above average temperatures, upper 70s to around 80 inland and upper 60s to lower 70s at the immediate coast. RH values dip down to as low as ~25 to 30% for many inland locations Thursday afternoon, but light winds in combination with the spring green up should keep the fire weather threat in check.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Thursday, patchy fog possible early Friday, then warmer with a chc for showers and a few tstms Friday aftn/evening.

High pressure becomes centered off the southern New England/northern mid-Atlantic coast Thursday, gradually pushing farther offshore by Friday. The next upper trough is forecast to amplify from central Canada later Fri, becoming a strong upper trough across the upper Great Lakes by Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure tracks ENE from the upper MS Valley Friday morning, to the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. This will lift a warm front north across the area Fri aftn/evening. Mostly sunny with near to slightly above avg temperatures Thursday with highs ranging from 75-80F inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast. Seasonable/dry Thursday night/Friday morning with lows mainly in the low-mid 50s, though a few upper 40s will be possible over the interior eastern shore and northern Neck.
There also may be some patchy fog early Friday with low level onshore flow and slowly increasing dew P's. Friday will be a transition day as the warm front brings increasing moisture into the region. There is some uncertainty, however, as to the degree of moisture return (the 00Z/23 GFS wetter than the NAM/ECMWF). For now, will have chc PoPs (and aftn tstms possible), mainly along and W of I-95 and slight chc to the east for Friday aftn/Friday night. Warmer with highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the region. Warm, with well above avg temperatures for Friday night (lows in the 60s).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer than average and unsettled Saturday.

- Dry Sunday-Tuesday. Near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, then warmer again Tuesday.

An upper level trough is forecast to continue amplifying Saturday, becoming a closed low Sunday across Maine and into the Canadian maritimes. Timing is a bit uncertain at this range, but the entire area should be in the warm sector Saturday, with sfc low pressure tracking E to NE into the St Lawrence Valley. A chc for showers Saturday morning , then PoPs increase to 60-80% by Saturday afternoon. Widespread showers and a few storms are possible, though at this time, the severe threat is not looking that impressive with the main shortwave tracking across the NE states, and fairly minimal mid level lapse rates and only modest shear. Nevertheless, will continue watching trends for this system as the models are not great at this range with such details. High temperatures on Saturday will continue to be above average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With a fairly strong upper level ridge over the central CONUS Sun- Mon, the NW flow aloft downstream over the NE CONUS should allow for a strong area of sfc high pressure to build SE into the local area into early next week. Sunday and Monday will be dry and cooler (near normal). Remaining dry Tuesday, but with above normal temperatures returning (highs back into the 80s).

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the 18z/23 TAF period. Mainly high clouds expected through the forecast period. Winds are running around 10kt (locally 10-15kt near the coast) out of the NE this afternoon. Mostly clear with diminishing winds tonight.
Dry/VFR conditions continue through Thursday with winds generally staying below 10 knots.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Thursday night/Friday morning but there could be some patchy fog early Friday morning with light onshore flow and ahead of a weak warm front. Scattered showers possible Friday aftn/evening, becoming widespread along with a few tstms Saturday as the next cold front pushes into the area. VFR conditions return for Sunday.

MARINE
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine pattern expected to persist through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of and especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend with Small Craft conditions likely.

Early morning analysis shows a weak front crossing the waters with winds becoming NW 5-10 kt behind the boundary. Waves are 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Winds become NE ~10 kt around sunrise (locally 10-15 kt over northern portions of the coastal waters as well as the southern Ches Bay/lower James) and continue through the day today. High pressure north of the area will result in sub-SCA onshore flow Thursday into Friday afternoon, becoming SE 10-15 kt Friday evening as the high translates offshore. 00z guidance and local wind probs continue to show the potential for marginal (prefrontal) SCA conditions early Saturday morning with the relative highest chance over the northern Ches Bay zones. However, the northerly surge behind the front is much more likely to result in widespread SCA conditions across the local waters Saturday night into Sunday.
Waves will generally be 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay this week, increasing to 2-3 ft Saturday and potentially to 3-4 ft for a period behind the frontal passage. Seas will average 2-3 ft through the week, building to 3-4 Saturday and 4-5 ft late Saturday into Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.