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FXUS65 KLKN 072200 AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 200 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will move through the area tonight into Friday morning bringing periods of snow to much of northern Nevada. Total snowfall will be less than an inch in most valleys with higher mountain totals along with blowing snow as gusty winds accompany the cold front. Cold temperatures with single digit lows are expected Saturday morning before a warming trend occurs early next week. Cloudiness will affect northern Nevada through midweek with high elevation snow flurries or showers but minimal impacts to valleys across northern Nevada.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday

A strong cold front will move through the area tonight.
Precipitation associated with the front will begin in Humboldt county this afternoon extending southeastward into Elko County and White Pine county by this evening. Colder temperatures are in place so snow accumulation efficiency may be a bit higher than yesterday's event. Nonetheless, there is a high confidence in snow amounts across northern Nevada with less than an inch in most valleys and up to one foot along the highest northeast Nevada peaks. A winter weather advisory remains in effect through this evening for elevations above 6500 feet in northern Elko county as well as the Ruby Mountains. Convective elements due to favorable upper-level setup and strong baroclinicity could result in a few lightning strikes across northern Nevada this evening. However, chances of any thunders remain at 20% and below and should be rare through the event. These convective bands however may present a brief period of heavy snow, reduced visibility resulting from snow and blowing snow under a gusty wind regime and rapid accumulation on roadways. Wind gusts of 35 mph are possible with a 50% chance of reaching or exceeding 35 mph mainly in mountain ranges. So blowing snow may be an issue before winds subside.

A few lingering isolated snow showers are expected Friday but impacts should be minimized due to some daytime heating and transient nature of showers (brisk NW to SE motion). Gusty northwest winds will be present Friday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will reach only into the 30s with lows by Saturday morning in the single digits.

LONG TERM
Saturday night through Thursday.

A warming and drying trend (for most of the area) will commence early next week. Chances for mainly mountain snow showers across northern Nevada are expected to continue through midweek but impacts will be minimal and contained to the higher mountain ranges of northern Elko county. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to rise as high pressure builds over the region with highs reaching into the 40s by Monday and lows in the upper teens/lower 20s. Forecast confidence decreases markedly for late in the week with uncertainty in strength and timing of next West Coast trough. Light North-northeast winds will continue through midweek before transitioning to an east-southeast wind by Thursday.

AVIATION
A robust cold front will continue to move through the state this evening, with snow showers possible at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO anywhere from 03Z to 07Z. These showers will briefly reduce visibility and flight condtions to MVFR, however prevailing condtions are expected to be VFR. Winds will be breezy to gusty out of the Northwest the evening as well, with gusts up to 25 knots at the above mentioned airfields. Condtions will taper off into the evening. Some snow showers may linger around KEKO tomorrow morning, but should taper off quickly.



LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday ABOVE 6500 FEET in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

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