Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tonopah, NV

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of central NV this afternoon due to strong southwesterly flow over the region mixing down to create sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. While strong winds will continue across central NV through Wednesday morning, criteria level winds will decrease after 7PM PST tonight.

The downstream flow and associated embedded jet of a ULT off the CA coast is responsible for the more vigorous flow overhead today and Wednesday. The system is also the catalyst for increasing precipitation chances tonight and tomorrow. Lack of significant forcing is keeping the current moisture push limited to increased cloud coverage according to latest satellite imagery. In the warm sector of this system the area will see predominantly rainfall with especially for valley floors at or below 6500 feet. Snow levels will begin to drop by Wednesday night into Thursday AM when the system makes it exit to the east. For Wednesday precipitation chances will be better thanks to some increased frontogenesis over east-central and northern NV. This is due to the system meandering a bit closer to the area though the LPC will ultimately stay south of the region as it pushes eastward by Thursday PM.
Rain accumulations for this system will be 0.1-0.3 inches on Wednesday with better accumulations to the west. Thursday AM 0.05-0.1 inches is forecast for eastern NV as the system pushes to the east. 4-6 inches of new snowfall are possible for northern NV higher elevations and peaks and higher amounts of 8-12 inches are possible for central NV high elevations particularly in northwestern Nye county.

The region enjoys a post frontal regime by Friday though the next system with much stronger dynamics puts the area back into southwesterly flow by Saturday. This is indicated by area temperatures not seeing as much of a drop off between systems. The pressure gradient tightens overhead again Sunday increasing wind speeds over central and east-central NV Sunday afternoon. Current model guidance shows good moisture availability and better precipitation amounts with the next system though the storm track is similar to the current weather system so expected trend is to see a gradual decrease in these values as time grows closer to early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in strong winds tonight and Wednesday morning in central NV. Wind/wind gust grids through 18Z Wednesday were bumped up using HRRR as NBM does a poor job with winds in short term. Low confidence in precipitation chances through Thursday as NBM has also handled this system poorly as well. StormTotal grids were moved 24 hours further out as the incoming systems timing has shifted yet again rendering confidence low in next weeks forecast.


AVIATION

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening will be interrupted intermittently by MVFR and IFR conditions as scattered shower activity in the area will lower CIGs and VIS at all terminals starting later this evening through Wednesday afternoon.
Strong gusty winds at KTPH and KELY Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning will gust to a range of 30-35KTs through Wednesday.


LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday NVZ035-037-040-041.