Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leonard, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Cold frontal zone is located across the eastern shore and southern Maryland this evening. Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of the front in an environment with weak instability but strong shear. Some of the stronger storms have displayed mesocyclones aloft and are producing small hail and gusty winds. This activity should exit in the next couple hours, but some showers could linger along/east of I-95 into the night as an additional wave of low pressure rides along the slow moving frontal zone.

To the west, across the mountains, strong cold advection has started, with the Spruce Knob weather station already below freezing. Elsewhere, upslope rain showers will gradually turn to snow showers overnight, with the most impactful conditions toward dawn as temperatures drop into the 20s.

At the lower elevations, low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s with a steady WNW wind. The higher elevations could gust 30-40 mph at times.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure lifting to the northeast Monday morning will quickly gather strength Monday strengthening the cold advection pattern. As mid-level temps cool down rapidly with approach of deep upper level trough, steepening low-mid level lapse rates and strengthening flow will lead to off and on snow showers and possible squalls across the mountains, which may reach as far east as I-81. Blending WPC QPF with NBM and several CAMs yields 0.3-0.4 inches of liquid equivalent and when combined with temperatures in the mid 20s and teens yields snow totals of 3 to 6 inches across western Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties. Thus, a Winter Wx Advisory has been issued from 4 AM Monday until midnight Mon night, although the highest snowfall rates will likely be Monday afternoon and evening. With the strong vort max passing well south of our area, the highest snow totals will be focused across southwest VA and western NC as opposed to our area.

As trough axis shifts east of the area Tuesday, rising heights and strengthening subsidence inversion will quickly end the snow shower threat. The low-level flow will be strongest on Tue along with higher mixing heights supporting wind gusts in the 35-40 mph range across much of the area. A Wind Advisory may need to be considered for the higher elevations. This when combined with temperatures struggling to reach 40 will result in wind chill values in the 30s with teens at higher elevations. Freeze Warning has been issued for Monday night where the program is still active (Calvert, St. Marys, King George).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A prolonged period of quiet weather conditions is expected locally during the middle to end of the upcoming week.

A shortwave trough and accompanying clipper low will track to our north during the day on Wednesday. While no precipitation is expected locally, this system will act to maintain a strong pressure gradient across the region. As a result, wind gusts out of the west to around 30 mph are expected during the day Wednesday. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the 50s and lower 60s (40s mountains) beneath a mix of sun and clouds. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop to around 30 percent at peak heating across the Virginia Piedmont and southern Maryland, which when combined with the gusty winds could lead to some fire weather concerns.

An upper low will linger to our northeast through the end of the week across the Canadian Maritimes and New England while upper level ridging simultaneously builds over the center of the country. This will place us in northwesterly flow aloft, which will encourage high pressure to gradually build in from the Ohio Valley at the surface.
This will lead to continued dry conditions and seasonable temperatures, with highs generally in the 50s (40s to near 50 in the mountains) and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Threat of thunderstorms has moved east of the TAF sites.
Lingering showers will exit the area by 09Z (if not sooner). Any local MVFR conditions should also improve the second half of the night. Blustery NW winds Mon and Tue, strongest on Tue with gusts up to 35 kt

VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected on both Wednesday and Thursday. Winds may gust to around 20-30 knots either afternoon.

MARINE
Gusty thunderstorms with small hail should exit the waters by midnight. Small Craft Advisories continue through Monday night with possible gales Tuesday. Gale Watch has been expanded to all waters.

Small Craft Advisories appear likely within westerly flow on both Wednesday and Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
A potent cold front will yield gusty winds in its wake Monday into Tuesday. Cool temperatures and recent precipitation, albeit light, should inhibit fire weather concerns with highs in the 40s. However, temperatures moderate by mid-week, but with continued breezy winds. Thus, will need to continue to monitor the situation as winds further dry out fuels.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for MDZ008.
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for MDZ008.
Freeze Warning from 11 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ017-018.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for MDZ509.
VA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ057.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for ANZ530>534-537>543.
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ530>534-537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ535-536.