Sunday, June13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Weyers Cave, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:41PM Sunday June 13, 2021 11:22 AM EDT (15:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1038 Am Edt Sun Jun 13 2021
Rest of today..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1038 Am Edt Sun Jun 13 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A series of cold fronts will then cross the region late today through early Wednesday. High pressure will return later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weyers Cave, VA
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location: 38.28, -78.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 131406 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach today before crossing the region late tonight into Monday, resulting in renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. A second cold front is expected to cross the region late Monday night into early Tuesday, and a third cold front Wednesday. High pressure will resume control for a few days thereafter coupled with cooler temperatures and lower humidity.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Latest analysis shows weak high pressure continuing to exit offshore as a cold front lingers across central Ohio. Latest satellite imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms tracking southeastward out of western PA this morning as a result of an outflow boundary. As the cluster moves into more stable air across western MD, is expected to precipitate out and be left with some residual showers. However there is a second smaller cell developing upstream from Garret Co which may result in a few rumbles of thunder into the eastern WV Panhandle within the next hour. However, given limited instability, should also continue to decrease in nature.

For the remainder of the day today, clouds will continue to decrease this morning, resulting in some partial sunshine this afternoon. A southerly flow will continue to develop, supporting warmer and more humid conditions compared to yesterday. High temperatures will range in the low to mid 80s for most.

As the aforementioned cold front continues to track southeastward, expect the development of showers and thunderstorms to pop up later this afternoon and continue tracking southeastward along the boundary. SPC continues to highlight western MD and the eastern WV Panhandle for a slight risk for severe storms, where the main hazard would be damaging wind gusts but hail cannot be ruled out either. This area is expected to have the best probability of severe storms this afternoon as CAPE values range between 1000-2000 J/kg with 30-35 knot 0-6km shear. Instability parameters quickly die off further east, in which storms are expected to weaken this evening as they travel east. However, a few isolated severe storms may persist for areas mainly west of I-95. However the probability of severe storms does decrease in nature. There is a marginal flood risk as well across most of the region expect for our southeastern most areas, mainly due to antecedent damp soil conditions. However expectations of progressive storm movement suggest it is a more marginal flood risk at this time.

Showers and any remaining thunderstorms will diminish late tonight as the cold front stalls nearby. Overnight lows will fall back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. . PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . Cold front number one will be stalled in our general vicinity at the start of Monday. This will keep clouds and spotty showers around, and by afternoon, areas southeast of front 1 could start to see new thunderstorms form . this should be mainly close to the bay. By then, however, next front approaching from the northwest will start to approach, with new storms firing to our northwest with it. Monday will be the warmest day with westerly flow, sending highs well into the 80s. By night, showers and storms with front 2 will overspread much of the area as front 1 finally gets kicked out. This second system also has a severe weather risk, but it is a bit more uncertain, so its considered marginal at this time. Shear will be excessive, possibly well over 40 knots, but CAPE is uncertain. If it coincides, severe weather coverage and intensity Monday evening could be in excess of today/tonight.

Drier air will start seeping southward into the area for Tuesday, but upper level trough will promote cloud development and possibly a few showers. Highs will drop into the low-mid 80s.

Front number 3 will approach later Tuesday night, but lower moisture makes this front more unlikely to produce significant precipitation. Lows will be cooler, mostly in the 50s with the warmer spots in the 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As one mid-level piece of energy moves across the region Wednesday, brief high pressure will build into the region for Wednesday night. Conditions will be dry and temperatures will be cooler. Highs will be near 80.

On Thursday, another piece of mid-level energy will push across the region. This energy combined with some instability could spawn a few showers in the afternoon and mainly over eastern parts of our CWA. Temperatures will be near 80 once again.

High pressure will build into the region Friday. Some sun and some clouds with dry conditions. Temperatures will become warmer with highs in the middle 80s.

Friday night into Saturday, the high pressure will push east to allow for a return flow to develop ahead of a developing low pressure trough. There is a chance for showers Friday night in the west and northwestern zones. The chance for showers and thunderstorms moves farther east on Saturday. This will depend on the instability and amount of wind shear. Highs Saturday could reach the middle 80s once again.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. MVFR to perhaps IFR cigs may persist for a time around CHO, with MVFR to occasionally IFR vsby at MRB early this morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected into this afternoon. Thereafter, approaching cold front may bring restrictions with showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening, most likely at MRB, then IAD, with a lesser risk at MTN/BWI/DCA/CHO. Showers mostly clear area Monday morning, but another round then may arrive Monday evening. Drying out for the most part by late Tuesday.

VFR conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds northwest 10 knots Wednesday through Thursday, becoming light and variable Thursday night.

MARINE. Mostly sub-SCA through the next few days despite several cold frontal passages. However, southerly flow ahead of the first front this evening looks likely to bring marginal SCA gusts to the middle bay, so have SCA out for this period. Perhaps of more concern is the threat of gusty thunderstorms this evening as the front approaches. This threat will be renewed with the second front Monday evening.

No marine hazards expected Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds northwest 10 knots Wednesday and Thursday, then light and variable Thursday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Elevated water levels continue to be pushed up the bay as easterly flow becomes more southerly. Thus, expect more minor flooding at high tide this morning for many sites. By Tuesday, northwest flow behind a couple of cold fronts should allow water levels to decline.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ011-014. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ534-543.

SYNOPSIS . MSS/RCM NEAR TERM . MSS/RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . RCM/KLW MARINE . RCM/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA3 mi48 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast74°F66°F76%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSHD

Wind History from SHD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE5N4NE5NE4NE6E5SE5CalmS3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3S4Calm
1 day agoN6N5NE8NE7N8N4N8NE8N6N6N5NE5N5N3N5N6N4NE6NE6NE3NE3NE5NE4N5
2 days agoCalmS3SE5SE8S7SW8SW7S6S5CalmNE3NE9NE6NE7NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3N5

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
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Sun -- 04:15 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:41 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:26 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.61.10.80.60.71.11.92.73.23.332.521.40.90.60.40.511.92.52.82.8

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:17 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.510.70.50.50.91.62.42.82.92.62.21.71.30.90.60.40.40.81.62.22.52.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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