Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:18AM||Sunset 8:53PM||Thursday July 18, 2019 5:27 PM EDT (21:27 UTC)||Moonrise 9:17PM||Moonset 6:47AM||Illumination 97%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WVHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 krlx 182034 aaa|
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service charleston wv
434 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
High pressure takes control, allowing for clearing skies. Life
threatening heat is expected Friday and Saturday afternoons. A
break in the heat comes early next week.
Near term through Friday
As of 427 pm Thursday...
sent an updated forecast to reflect warmer late afternoon early
evening temps as current obs are above previously forecast highs
for today. Also made some adjustments for dewpoints this
afternoon to account for ongoing diurnal mixing. Adjusted pops
to reflect current isolated to widely scattered coverage and to
show a downward trend in coverage with loss of diurnal warming.
Convection currently moving SE across ohio may strengthen some
late this afternoon as it approaches our SE oh NE ky counties
of responsibility, as that is where a roughly N to S oriented
axis of higher instability (especially dcape) is located.
However, storms should weaken as they approach west virginia
early this evening. Will continue to monitor for any future
forecast adjustments that may be needed.
As of 142 pm Thursday...
weather charts show surface high pressure building from the south,
taking control through Friday. Water vapor imagery indicate very dry
air aloft, while pwats are a little lower, about 1.7 inches but
surface dewpoints remain in the lower 70s.
As an upper ridge also builds, skies could become mostly clear
tonight. Lows tonight should stay close to their dewpoints, in the
low to mid 70s. Calm wind and radiational cooling under damp surface
conditions could lead to dense fog formation mainly along river
valleys of WV during the predawn hours Friday morning. Any fog or
low stratus will quickly dissipate by 730 am Friday.
Our attention returns to the dangerous heat expected to build Friday
and Saturday afternoons. Models suggest a subtle increase in h850
temperatures by Friday. With plenty of sunshine, dewpoints in the
70s and weak flow will allow "feels like" temperatures to reach up
to 105 degrees over the WV lowlands, southeast oh and northeast ky.
Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 245 pm Thursday...
dangerous heat continues in the short term period underneath a
potent ridge expanding across the southern half of the conus. High
dewpoints across the area prevent much in the way of heat relief
Friday night with portions of the lowlands and ohio valley only
cooling into the mid-70's. Even elkins can expect a balmy night,
only cooling to around 70. Model analysis suggests a combination of
subsidence aloft and light surface flow may lead to a broad blanket
of stratus cloud cover Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon 1000-500mb thickness around 580-582 dm and 850mb
temperatures near 20c mirror those of Friday, so this combined with
less cloud cover yields afternoon high temperatures well into the
mid-90's across the lowlands, and perhaps upper-90's in the low-
lying areas of the middle ohio valley. Only marginal differences in
dew point are expected on Saturday, mainly due to the character of
afternoon mixing - some modestly lower dew points may work in during
peak heating mixing. Resulting maximum heat index values 105-110 f
across the lowlands and ohio valley correspond with an excessive
heat warning, while values ranging 100-105 correspond with a heat
advisory across the 79 corridor and portions of the southern coal
While strong afternoon destabilization is expected, a stout
subsidence inversion beneath high pressure overhead keeps the region
dry Saturday, spare for a chance of a storm over the mountains of wv
given differential heating possibly breaking the cap. Storms would
be short-lived with little movement but a bit of a microburst
threat. Ridging finally starts to break down Saturday night, with a
weak mid-level wave spurring development of a weak area of low
pressure near the smokey mountains which may produce a few showers
overnight Saturday into early Sunday across the southern zones.
Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 255 pm Thursday...
the first of several heat-busting shortwave troughs migrates
down through the great lakes region late Sunday into early|
Monday, sending a surface cold front southward as it does so.
Scattered showers and storms are possible during the day Sunday
ahead of the cold front, which models place at our western
doorstep by around 00z Monday (Sunday evening). Strong
destabilization on the order of 2000-2500 j kg MLCAPE is progged
for Sunday which leaves plenty of opportunity for explosive,
albeit pulsating and mainly short- lived convection, but what
little forcing organizing flow exists doesn't arrive until late,
so not expected much of a severe threat with the exception of an
isolated strong wind threat.
The positively tilted trough very slowly moves the cold front
across the area starting Sunday evening, not exiting until the
end of Monday. Slow movement, along with pwats progged to once
again top 2", leads to at least an isolated flood threat. Will
need to keep an eye on this time period, late Sunday through
Monday, for flooding threat.
While ridging remains in the lower to mid-levels with surface
high pressure in place, trough aloft finally brings cooler air
down from canada in waves through the week. Expect temperatures
in the 70's to low-80's Monday and Tuesday, warming modestly
into the mid- to upper-80's by the end of the long term as the
trough aloft gradually shifts eastward.
Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 130 pm Thursday...
MVFR ceilings will continue to lift intoVFR while clearing
continues this evening. High pressure at the surface and aloft
will provide mostly clear skies and calm flow through early
Friday. Radiational cooling is likely tonight under this
conditions. With damp surface dewpoints, patchy dense fog could
develop along some river valleys overnight. This fog could
produce periods of ifr lifr conditions, more likely at crw, hts,
and pkb. Some models suggest MVFR low stratus CU could
redevelop once again tonight, mainly along the eastern mountains
and western slopes. If materialize, these clouds will last
through 14z Friday before they dissipate.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...
forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: more low stratus could prevent dense fog
formation if materializes.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h m m m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Friday...
no widespread ifr conditions expected at this time.
Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
Oh... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
Ky... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
Synopsis... Trm mc
near term... Rh arj
short term... Mc
long term... Mc
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV||10 mi||37 min||W 8 G 15||0.50 mi||Thunderstorm Heavy Rain||76°F||71°F||85%||1013.7 hPa|
Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SW||S||S||S||Calm||W||Calm||Calm||S||S||SW||S||S|
|2 days ago||W||W||Calm||SW||SE||S||Calm||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||S|
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (17,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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