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FXUS61 KRLX 162213 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 613 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Convection will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity toward sunset. More storms possible Wednesday evening, some storms could be severe.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 610 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage and intensity by late afternoon. Adjusted PoPs, weather and sky grids allowing for dry, mostly clear skies across the Mid OH valley, and southern and western WV. Expect remnants of showers and storms to decay or exit the northeast mountains early this evening. Adjusted hourly temperatures as they dropped under heavy showers this afternoon.

As of 212 PM Tuesday...

Satellite and radar trends at the time of writing show aggravated cumulus field quickly evolving into pulse showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Early morning capping inversion has been quickly overtaken by diurnal heating, with several areas in the central lowlands already in the low to mid 80s. A warm front draped through the forecast area will lift slightly to the north over the next several hours, driving storms from the southern coalfields upon initial materialization towards the north and east.

Mesoanalysis depicts an unstable atmosphere underway, with DCAPE of ~1200 J/kg centered over the Kanawha Valley. This will advertise a decent potential for downbursts within this environment. Freezing levels around 10,000ft will support hail within any healthy and strong storm. Forecast soundings depict west/northwest flow above 15,000ft AGL, which will likely shear apart storms that attempt further vertical growth. Heavy downpours are also not out of the question within activity today. With that all in mind, will continue to highlight isolated damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized high water issues as main concerns within today's convection.

Activity wanes after sunset this evening, but will return in earnest on Wednesday as a surface low pressure system inches in from the west. This will drag in a cold front, slated for the short term forecast to pass overhead, but will maintain a moist and unstable environment in the meantime. SPC paints a Marginal risk for severe storms once again Wednesday afternoon, with a Slight risk lurking across the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will once again rise into the 70s/80s across the Central Appalachians.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

The region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, even with an approaching cold front, high temperatures will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Milder conditions are expected Thursday afternoon, outside of a few remnant showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some evening showers will occur due to cold front moving through Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...

A cold front moves through Friday keeping showers around, as well as the chance for some thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be below normal for the weekend. Slight chances remain in the mountains for some weekend showers. Frost/freeze headlines could be possible Sunday night/Monday morning with some mid to upper 30s across parts of northern WV and southeast OH.

AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 212 PM Tuesday...

Aggravated cumulus field has sprouted along the southern extent of a warm front this afternoon, with pulse convection getting underway. As the front lifts to the north and east over the next few hours, convection will follow a similar path. Opted for VCTS across all terminals this afternoon, with tempo groups included for brief vsby reductions and uptick in wind. If storms reach strong to severe levels this afternoon, hail and isolated wind damage will be possible.

Activity wanes after sunset this evening, but will return in earnest on Wednesday as a disturbance advances from the west.
Showers and storms become possible once again Wednesday afternoon and evening. A tightening pressure gradient will also promote non-convective surface wind gusts to increase to around 15-20 kts.

Outside of storms within this TAF period, ceilings are anticipated to remain VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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