Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:42 PM EST (19:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:47PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 121941 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 241 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Rain and freezing rain overspread the region early Friday, changing to all rain Friday afternoon. Active pattern persists through the weekend and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 230 PM Thursday .

1042 mb surface high currently over Long Island will continue to slowly shift off to the northeast into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday morning. A mid-level trough approaching the Ark-La-Tex at this hour will lift north along the Mid-Atlantic coast through the day Friday. Moisture ahead of this system will spread from south to north across the area early Friday. Forecast soundings show a stout warm nose aloft, so the bulk of the precipitation will fall as liquid, either rain or freezing rain. With increasing winds aloft and a substantial dry layer to overcome currently thinking the Lowlands remain just above or rise just above freezing prior to onset of rain, but this trend will have to be watched closely with potential impacts to the morning rush if we don't mix as much as expected and come in a little colder. Better chances of surfaces remaining below freezing for a few hours in areas of favored cold air damming along the eastern slopes where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Total ice accumulations in these areas generally a light glaze to a tenth of an inch with some locally higher amounts up to two tenths possible in the most stubborn cold spots. Should see a bit of a break in the rain late morning into early afternoon, mainly across the Lowlands prior to the next wave approaching Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 225 PM Thursday .

A coastal low will be lifting northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast and a secondary low will develop near eastern KY Friday night. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will be strengthening ahead of an approaching upper level trough with geopotential height falls across the area. In addition, models indicate that PWATs will approach one inch across the region, which is just under the peak end of climatology for mid December. These factors suggest that an uptick in precipitation coverage and intensity Friday night into Saturday morning is likely with widespread rain developing across the area.

Precipitation coverage will become more scattered in nature by Saturday afternoon as moisture wraps around the aforementioned secondary low and coastal low as these features merge around southern New England. Temperatures will be way too warm to support wintry precip across most of the area Saturday afternoon, but the one exception will be in the mountains where snow is expected through the day. Cold air advection will then be on the increase Saturday night as the deepening low pressure system moves into eastern Canada with 850mb temps dropping to around -5C to -7C by Sunday morning. This will allow rain to transition to snow across most of the lowlands into Sunday morning, especially areas along/west of the OH river where thermal profiles are expected to be colder. It is a little more uncertain for the Charleston area and locations south towards the southern coalfields as temperatures may stay just warm enough , but there is at least a chance for a rain/snow mix or a period of just snow through Sunday morning. Also can't rule out freezing drizzle during this time as forecast soundings show a lack of moisture in the DGZ, bringing uncertainty to the presence of ice crystals in clouds. For now, went with a gradual rain to snow transition across most of the area, but as details of the thermal profile become more clear, some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle may be added to later forecasts.

Any lingering precipitation on Sunday will generally be confined to the central/northern WV mountains where upslope snow is expected. Any precipitation that occurs west of the mountains should be in the form of rain on Sunday. A brief lull in precipitation activity is then expected across the area late Sunday afternoon into the evening as surface high pressure briefly builds in from the Upper Midwest.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 225 PM Thursday .

A quasi west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone is expected to develop across the Ohio Valley Sunday night as cold high pressure in the western Great Lakes builds into the area and warm/moist advection increases ahead of a low pressure system in the southern plains. Thus, PoPs will be on the increase Sunday night into Monday morning as moisture advection increases in the area and initially, temperatures should be cold enough to support snow across the area through early Monday. However, the aforementioned low pressure system will be in the vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex area Monday morning and quickly shift to the NNE towards our area by Monday evening. While there still remains uncertainty in the track of this system, both the GFS and ECMWF bring the warm sector into most of our area by Monday afternoon, bringing a transition to rain across most of the region during the day. However, the 12Z ECMWF is a bit further south with the track of the low than the 12Z GFS as the ECMWF brings the system across eastern KY and into southern WV Monday night while the GFS pulls the system towards Cincinnati. As a result, forecast confidence is still low at this time, but leaning towards at least most of our area getting into the warm sector during the day, which is what the majority of the latest 12Z GFS ensemble members suggest. Again, this should result in rain across most of the area Monday afternoon outside of the mountains, but will continue to watch model trends in the coming days for additional forecast confidence in this scenario.

The system and associated cold front should then track east of the area Monday night into Tuesday, with rain across the lowlands Tuesday afternoon and snow showers in the mountains. As cold air advection increases Tuesday night, a transition to snow is then expected across the region. Any precipitation across the area should taper off by Wednesday morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This feature will remain in control through the end of the long term period, with temperatures generally staying below normal.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 625 AM Thursday .

VFR conditions will prevail through early Friday morning with increasing upper level cloudiness late this afternoon into the early overnight. Southeasterly downslope winds will yield gusts 12-16KTs at BKW with the remaining terminals staying under 6KT sustained through morning. Winds aloft increase toward morning in response to southern stream system coming up the Mid-Atlantic which could yield a few hours of LLWS at EKN, although may see enough mixing to mitigate this.

Light rain overspreads the terminals early Friday morning with ceilings lowering to 025-040. A brief period of freezing rain is likely at BKW 10-13Z before temperatures rise above freezing, but current thinking is the remaining terminals recover to or remain just above freezing prior to arrival of the rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset of rain may vary by an hour or so.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY . IFR possible in rain Friday evening.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ516-518-520-523-524. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ522-526. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . JP/RG NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . RG LONG TERM . RG AVIATION . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi52 minVar 310.00 miFair46°F25°F44%1031.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTS

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW10W3W3CalmCalmE3E3NE3E3E3CalmNE4E3CalmCalmCalmE3E3E4E63SE43
1 day agoW8SW5W7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.