Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:31PM Monday August 10, 2020 9:34 PM EDT (01:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:18PMMoonset 12:10PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 102324 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 724 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level disturbances brings a chance of storms to portions of the area tonight and Tuesday. Cold front arrives Tuesday night, becoming stationary to provide shower/thunderstorm through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 451 PM Monday .

Made some significant changes part of the Near Term forecast period. Reduced POPs significantly for the remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours. A very dry atmospheric profile exists across all but the far western CWA this afternoon. Thus, any convection that tries to develop through sunset should be very isolated, and mainly across NE KY (and possibly far SW VA).

Focus for later tonight then turns to ongoing large bow echo currently moving east across Illinois. This complex is prog to move into Indiana over the next hour and begin to shift move southeasterly. During the evening, this complex should gradually weaken as it begins to encounter a drier and increasingly stable airmass. At this time, severe weather is not expected across our CWA tonight, and the majority of the expected remnant convection is likely to be confined to the far western CWA. As such, I have lowered inherited POPs for tonight and Tuesday morning across the board by about 20%. Will likely make further significant changes to POPs for tonight with the evening update . once better convective trends and 00z surface and upper air analysis takes place.

As of 215 PM Monday .

The surface high pressure, responsible for dry weather during the last couple of days, will weaken even further by Tuesday. This will allow for upper level disturbances to initiate convection from abundant low level moisture in the boundary layer. Models show differences in their solutions especially tonight. The RUC and NAM suggest a possible MCV dropping from the northwest overnight tonight. In other hand NMB and GFS/ECMWF models brings a dry quiet night. Decided to introduce some PoPs across the area to account for this possibility. Any precipitation activity should wane down before sunrise Tuesday morning, but showers and storms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours as additional upper shortwaves cross the area.

Temperatures will remain above average through the period.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 209 PM Monday .

Surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing drier air across much of the northern Ohio Valley, particularly areas north of Interstate-70 where dewpoints mainly in the 50s to near 60 will exist. However, our area will remain too far south of this feature to benefit from this drier air as dewpoints are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. In addition, a stalled frontal boundary across our area will combine with shortwave energy aloft to produce a risk of scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary will then remained stalled across the middle Ohio Valley into Thursday, with additional chances for scattered showers and storms continuing across the region.

With models showing PWAT values as high as 2 inches Wednesday and Thursday, locally heavy rainfall is possible with any of the convection that develops. While dry antecedent conditions will limit a threat for widespread flooding concerns, can't completely rule out localized high water issues as these storms will be very slow moving. Otherwise, weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates should generally keep severe weather threat on the lower side through mid week. In addition, high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the lowlands and 70s for the higher elevations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 209 PM Monday .

The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to linger in the vicinity of the middle Ohio Valley late week and to start the weekend. This feature will continue to support daily chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday amid the warm and humid airmass and mid level impulses aloft. By Sunday an upper level trough is expected to drop into the Great Lakes region, which should help the frontal boundary finally lift out of the area.

By early next week, models show a strong upper ridge amplifying across the western US and broad troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This should result in slightly cooler air with temperatures slowly trending towards more normal values by the end of the long term period. This feature should also help maintain some chances of showers and storms across the region with conditions remaining unsettled at times through early next week.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 714 PM Monday .

VFR expected for much of the TAF period, although some areas of river valley fog overnight may lead to IFR conditions.

Dissipating Cu field is ongoing as of writing with some patches of mid/upper level cloudiness drifting across at times. Well to the northwest, a severe line of convection across Indiana is prog to move southeast across Ohio this evening, and eventually shift more southerly. Most of our region should remain just to the east of any of the more substantial convection (which should weaken throughout the evening). KHTS may be just close enough to require a period of VCSH (TS possible) later this evening/overnight. Elsewhere, convective blow off should negate greater fog development. Exception may be KEKN where fog may develop before thicker cloud cover spreads across.

VFR expected to prevail Tuesday with a Cu field developing during the day. Iso to widely sct convection may try to develop across the region, but coverage is currently expected to be too sparse to include in TAFs this far out in time.

Weak/vrb sfc winds this evening eventually becoming more SWrly around 5 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Slight chance convective complex currently over Indiana tracks a little farther east tonight, which would bring greater precip chances to the area.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY . No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . ARJ/RG NEAR TERM . RH/ARJ SHORT TERM . RG LONG TERM . RG AVIATION . RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi44 minSSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F68°F63%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTS

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmE4S3S5S4Calm6--CalmS44SE7S8S5SW4SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5--Calm4CalmNW3SW4CalmCalm
2 days agoN3N4N3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmW4436N3N3W5NW4N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.