Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:53PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:27 PM EDT (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 182034 aaa
afdrlx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service charleston wv
434 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure takes control, allowing for clearing skies. Life
threatening heat is expected Friday and Saturday afternoons. A
break in the heat comes early next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 427 pm Thursday...

sent an updated forecast to reflect warmer late afternoon early
evening temps as current obs are above previously forecast highs
for today. Also made some adjustments for dewpoints this
afternoon to account for ongoing diurnal mixing. Adjusted pops
to reflect current isolated to widely scattered coverage and to
show a downward trend in coverage with loss of diurnal warming.

Convection currently moving SE across ohio may strengthen some
late this afternoon as it approaches our SE oh NE ky counties
of responsibility, as that is where a roughly N to S oriented
axis of higher instability (especially dcape) is located.

However, storms should weaken as they approach west virginia
early this evening. Will continue to monitor for any future
forecast adjustments that may be needed.

As of 142 pm Thursday...

weather charts show surface high pressure building from the south,
taking control through Friday. Water vapor imagery indicate very dry
air aloft, while pwats are a little lower, about 1.7 inches but
surface dewpoints remain in the lower 70s.

As an upper ridge also builds, skies could become mostly clear
tonight. Lows tonight should stay close to their dewpoints, in the
low to mid 70s. Calm wind and radiational cooling under damp surface
conditions could lead to dense fog formation mainly along river
valleys of WV during the predawn hours Friday morning. Any fog or
low stratus will quickly dissipate by 730 am Friday.

Our attention returns to the dangerous heat expected to build Friday
and Saturday afternoons. Models suggest a subtle increase in h850
temperatures by Friday. With plenty of sunshine, dewpoints in the
70s and weak flow will allow "feels like" temperatures to reach up
to 105 degrees over the WV lowlands, southeast oh and northeast ky.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 245 pm Thursday...

dangerous heat continues in the short term period underneath a
potent ridge expanding across the southern half of the conus. High
dewpoints across the area prevent much in the way of heat relief
Friday night with portions of the lowlands and ohio valley only
cooling into the mid-70's. Even elkins can expect a balmy night,
only cooling to around 70. Model analysis suggests a combination of
subsidence aloft and light surface flow may lead to a broad blanket
of stratus cloud cover Saturday morning.

Saturday afternoon 1000-500mb thickness around 580-582 dm and 850mb
temperatures near 20c mirror those of Friday, so this combined with
less cloud cover yields afternoon high temperatures well into the
mid-90's across the lowlands, and perhaps upper-90's in the low-
lying areas of the middle ohio valley. Only marginal differences in
dew point are expected on Saturday, mainly due to the character of
afternoon mixing - some modestly lower dew points may work in during
peak heating mixing. Resulting maximum heat index values 105-110 f
across the lowlands and ohio valley correspond with an excessive
heat warning, while values ranging 100-105 correspond with a heat
advisory across the 79 corridor and portions of the southern coal
fields.

While strong afternoon destabilization is expected, a stout
subsidence inversion beneath high pressure overhead keeps the region
dry Saturday, spare for a chance of a storm over the mountains of wv
given differential heating possibly breaking the cap. Storms would
be short-lived with little movement but a bit of a microburst
threat. Ridging finally starts to break down Saturday night, with a
weak mid-level wave spurring development of a weak area of low
pressure near the smokey mountains which may produce a few showers
overnight Saturday into early Sunday across the southern zones.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 255 pm Thursday...

the first of several heat-busting shortwave troughs migrates
down through the great lakes region late Sunday into early
Monday, sending a surface cold front southward as it does so.

Scattered showers and storms are possible during the day Sunday
ahead of the cold front, which models place at our western
doorstep by around 00z Monday (Sunday evening). Strong
destabilization on the order of 2000-2500 j kg MLCAPE is progged
for Sunday which leaves plenty of opportunity for explosive,
albeit pulsating and mainly short- lived convection, but what
little forcing organizing flow exists doesn't arrive until late,
so not expected much of a severe threat with the exception of an
isolated strong wind threat.

The positively tilted trough very slowly moves the cold front
across the area starting Sunday evening, not exiting until the
end of Monday. Slow movement, along with pwats progged to once
again top 2", leads to at least an isolated flood threat. Will
need to keep an eye on this time period, late Sunday through
Monday, for flooding threat.

While ridging remains in the lower to mid-levels with surface
high pressure in place, trough aloft finally brings cooler air
down from canada in waves through the week. Expect temperatures
in the 70's to low-80's Monday and Tuesday, warming modestly
into the mid- to upper-80's by the end of the long term as the
trough aloft gradually shifts eastward.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 130 pm Thursday...

MVFR ceilings will continue to lift intoVFR while clearing
continues this evening. High pressure at the surface and aloft
will provide mostly clear skies and calm flow through early
Friday. Radiational cooling is likely tonight under this
conditions. With damp surface dewpoints, patchy dense fog could
develop along some river valleys overnight. This fog could
produce periods of ifr lifr conditions, more likely at crw, hts,
and pkb. Some models suggest MVFR low stratus CU could
redevelop once again tonight, mainly along the eastern mountains
and western slopes. If materialize, these clouds will last
through 14z Friday before they dissipate.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: more low stratus could prevent dense fog
formation if materializes.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h m m m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Friday...

no widespread ifr conditions expected at this time.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for wvz005>011-013>020-029.

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
wvz024>028-030>032.

Oh... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for ohz066-067-075-076-083>087.

Ky... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for kyz101>103-105.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Trm mc
near term... Rh arj
short term... Mc
long term... Mc
aviation... Arj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi37 minW 8 G 150.50 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain76°F71°F85%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW4W7S3SW3SW4SW5SW4SW4SW3SW5S3S4SW5W3SW5SW5SW65CalmCalmE5E3W8
G15
1 day agoS54SW3S4S3S4CalmW5CalmCalmS3S4SW5S5S10
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2 days agoW4W7CalmSW5SE3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalm3CalmSW4SW5SW6S7
G16
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S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.