Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV

KEY MESSAGES
1.) An arctic front will move through today, bringing a few light snow showers across the northern parts of the area.
Temperatures well maintain relatively below freezing and wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will result in wind chills in the single digits and teens this afternoon and into the early evening.

2.) Dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Wind chills will drop between minus 5 and minus 10 across much of the lowlands, and as low as minus 25 in the northern mountains. An Extreme Cold Warning for the higher elevations and Cold Weather Advisories for most of the lowlands will remain in effect tonight into Tuesday morning.

3.) Temperatures will moderate back toward normal values for the middle of the week. Another cold front will then reinforce colder temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend.

4.) Significant uncertainty remains for next weekend regarding a potential southern stream system that could bring widespread precipitation and potential for decent snowfall amounts across the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An Arctic airmass is settling in across the region and will promote some snow showers or flurries today across much of the northern parts of the CWA, cannot rule out a few flakes in the southern portions either, until the clouds clear out this evening. This colder air will also promote single digit temperatures tonight as clouds clear out and some valleys decouple. Wind speeds will remain elevated enough to drop wind chills into the negative values across much of the area triggering Extreme Cold Weather Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories this evening and tonight.

In the northeast mountains winds up to 45mph will increase the threat of dangerously cold wind chill values as low as minus 25 on the higher ridges and peaks. Winds across the lowlands will gust into the teens overnight, however a few higher gusts cannot be ruled out causing wind chills into the minus 5 degree threshold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Forecast model soundings hint at enough mixing tonight to maintain a stronger pressure gradient which will keep winds elevated area-wide except for some sheltered valleys who should decouple and go relatively calm or light. Much of the area will endure temperatures decreasing to the single digits in the sheltered valleys which along with some weak flow will cause wind chills to decrease even further into the negative values.

The southern coalfields and Charleston Metro areas will maintain lows around 10 degrees or low teens with wind chills in the single digits. This will last through Tuesday morning with lower wind chills in the higher elevations of the northeast mountains dropping down to minus 25 degrees. People should take precautions to protect against frostbite and hypothermia, as well as ensuring pets and livestock have adequate shelter.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures will moderate back to around seasonable as a system drags a cold front through by midweek causing southerly flow to advection some warmer moisture from the deep south. Not expecting much in the way of impacts with this system as the lowlands are forecast to receive mainly rainfall and the higher elevation forecast to receive snowfall. However, the feature is rather moisture starved and should only squeeze out minimal QPF amounts.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

After midweeks cold front reinforces colder below seasonable air to the area by end of the week and into the weekend and another system will possibly affect some or much of the area depending on the track it takes for the weekend. This southern stream system is forecast by the GFS to slide just south of the area which will create a scenario where some of the area will receive precipitation in the form of snow due to the reinforced Arctic air in place. Much of the lowlands may see just a quick blast with minimal amounts.

Another scenario, such as the EURO bringing the system to a more northern track, will create the possibility of a more potent event with significant accumulations possible. Confidence remains low at this time and things could change, therefore this system will be worth keeping on eye on.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Building high pressure yields clear skies and VFR conditions tonight into Tuesday. Gusty winds this evening will trend downward overnight, becoming generally light out of the southwest for the second half of the valid TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for WVZ007>011- 016>020-027>034-039-040-515>521-524-525.
Extreme Cold Warning until 2 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for KYZ101-102.
VA...None.