Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 10:29 AM EDT (14:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:01AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 221418
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
1018 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
Widespread beneficial rainfall ahead of a cold front ending by
early afternoon. Fair weather through the remainder of the work
week. Active weather returning this weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1010 am Tuesday...

inherited forecast in good shape this morning and only required
minor tweaks, primarily to the wind grids for this afternoon.

Ana type cold front passed east of the mountains a few hours
ago, with rain trailing behind into central wv. Hi res model
runs are in good agreement on timing exodus of rain over the
next few hours. Latest visible satellite imagery shows some
clearing working eastward toward the oh river. This trend will
continue with sunshine breaking out across the central lowlands
around midday and the mountains this afternoon.

Of note is a secondary front, currently located across west
central oh and north central ky. This will cross this afternoon
which will keep a cumulus field around and possibly an isolated
shower across northern counties. Otherwise, boundary layer
mixing will begin in earnest once we get some sunshine with good
momentum transfer behind the secondary front allowing for some
25kt gusts across the area. Temperatures will top out around
average for this time of year, but with the gusty winds, a chill
in the air will be felt.

As of 620 am Tuesday...

made some minor updates to pops winds to reflect current radar
and ob trends. Otherwise forecast on track.

As of 130 am Tuesday...

strong synoptic ascent associated with 150kt h250 jet streak
overhead coupled associated low level mass moist response will
continue spread rain from west to east across the forecast area
through the remainder of the overnight into mid morning Tuesday.

Surface cold front across western ohio at this hour will bring a
little enhancement to rainfall rates via forced ascent for the
last couple hours at any given location prior to rainfall ending
west to east late morning into early afternoon.

Surface winds have largely tapered off across the region except
in the immediate vicinity of downsloping off of higher terrain.

Did see one gust to 38 mph at hts with some initial shower
activity dragging down some higher momentum air, and may see
additional isolated instances of this prior to column saturation
along the leading edge of precipitation, but otherwise winds
remain on the light side in the warm sector. Winds will become
gusty again, 20 to 30 mph with cold air advection after frontal
passage before tapering off tonight. Much drier air filters in
this evening with mostly clear skies, so should get shot at
catching the tail end of some orionid meteors (best viewing
time will be Wednesday morning). Despite moist ground
conditions, should have enough residual gradient to
significantly limit any fog formation, as well as limit any
frost formation in the cooler mountain falls with lows dipping
into the mid 30s.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
As of 345 am Tuesday...

high pressure taking claim over the mississippi valley will
expand over the forecast area by Wednesday morning and ensure
tranquil weather through majority of the short term.

Temperatures will prosper near normal for the second half of the
work week each afternoon, while dropping into the low 40s in the
mornings across the lowlands. We could see patches of frost
across the mountains Thursday morning as low temperatures crash
to around freezing.

Otherwise, the weather pattern remains rather benign until
Friday afternoon pending model trends. Currently, the GFS has a
plume of rain encroaching on southeast ohio and a secondary area
of moisture sneaking up from the carolinas. However, other
global models hold off on a return to active weather until late
in the weekend. Given this spread, elected to maintain isolated
shower potential for the conclusion of the short term period.

Long term Saturday through Monday
As of 345 am Tuesday...

the weekend forecast remains up in the air given the wide model
spread mentioned in the short term discussion. The ECMWF and
canadian continue to trend with a developing low pressure system
originating over the central plains, then migrating into the
ohio valley during the second half of the weekend, while the gfs
remains faster and clears out precip by late Saturday night.

Considering the uncertainty of this event and how far out in the
forecast this still is, maintained central guidance pops and
will keep an eye on model trends over the next several days to
hopefully hone in on a solution. This will also determine
temperatures for the weekend time frame pending cloud coverage
and precipitation nearby or overhead.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 620 am Tuesday...

a band of showers associated with a slow moving cold front will
continue to trudge across the area through midday today bringing
deteriorating conditions to all terminals. Widespread MVFR
conditions are expected immediately along the front with pockets
of ifr possible in any heavier showers and near rough terrain.

Winds ahead of the front have largely tapered off (except at bkw
which is still downsloping) despite strong winds just off the
surface.

Boundary layer winds behind the front weaken, but weak cold air
advection will aid momentum transport to the surface with gusty
westerly southwesterly winds for much of the day. Skies clear
from west to east from late morning into the afternoon as drier
air filters behind the front. With drier air in place and still
some gradient winds remaining overnight, significant fog
formation is not expected.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Wednesday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: timing and intensity of precipitation may
vary slightly.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
edt 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency h m h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency m h m h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency m h m l m h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h m m h m h h h h h
pkb consistency h h m h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency m h m m h m h h h h h h
after 12z Wednesday...

morning valley fog possible Thursday and Friday. Precipitation
chances increase again this weekend.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Jp mek
near term... Jp 30
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Jp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi38 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F54°F90%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTS

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE34S8SE66S6S4S4S10
G19
S4S7SW12
G33
SW7S3Calm6W10
G19
S4SW5W4SW5S5S4S8
1 day agoS3CalmSW33NW3CalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4E4E4E4E4E5
2 days agoSW3S5SW3SW4S3S5SE4CalmCalmNE3E4E3E3SE4SE6SE3CalmSE3CalmNE3E4E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.