Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
February 19, 2025 4:22 AM EST (09:22 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 190843 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 343 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
The Ohio River flooding lingers through today. Accumulating snow showers for today which will continue through Thursday amid passing disturbances. Bitter cold the rest of this week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 245 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Accumulating snow showers sweep across eastern Kentucky and the southern half of West Virginia through midday Wednesday.
* Highest confidence in higher snow totals continues to be across our southern forecast area into the mountains, ranging between 3 to 7 inches.
* Given the southern track of this system, there is less confidence for areas north of I-64 and west of I-79 to receive higher than 2 to 4 inches of snow.
* Wind chills bottom out into the single digits above zero for most locations overnight.
Snow started coming into the area around midnight, and at least light snow has spread over the CWA a bit faster than previously expected, with snow arriving at even Charleston right around 1AM. Snow totals didn't change too much with this event - maybe ticked up a bit for some of the area, including the central and northern mountains. However, will maintain the advisory in those areas as this is going to be a long-duration event that impacts most of the area in two phases over 36+ hours, so impacts will likely not be as severe as they would be if the snow fell all within 24 hours. The first phase of the system is now through early afternoon today with the northern edge of the coastal low precip shield, with the second being tonight into Thursday with widespread showers. In between, much of the area should see a break in the snow this afternoon and evening (and far northern areas may indeed see very little snow from phase 1) before an upper-level low crossing the area triggers widespread snow showers tonight into Thursday.
Winds will be light across the area for most of the period, generally blowing from the north or northeast when they do blow.
It will remain very cold for mid-February, with high temps forecast in the 20s for the bulk of the area, and some of the mountains may stay stuck in the teens. Quite cold tonight, with lows ranging from the mid single digits above zero in the mountains to the mid-teens in some lower elevations.
Fortunately, winds don't look like they will really start to pick up until during the day on Thursday, in the short-term period, so no Cold Weather Advisory appears to be needed tonight.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
Upper level closed low will give a second bout of snowfall as it slides from west to east across the area on Thursday. As the feature moves away from the area toward the east, wrap around flow will aid in bringing moisture from the Great Lakes and help keep accumulations going for at least the mountains.
Some snow can get into the lowlands from banding, however amounts should be on the lighter side, if any.
The potential for the lowlands will end by the evening and snowfall will likely continue in the northeast mountains due to upslope snow. This potential could persist into almost Friday afternoon, but this would likely be only 1-3 additional inches in the mountains. However, as high pressure builds in quickly from the west that system could cut off moisture and dry out the area sooner. Initially, had lower chances of snow previously, although the neighbors ramped up PoPs, therefore increased them to match up, but still thinking it may cut off earlier.
This high pressure system will keep us settled for once through the rest of this period and into the next period. For Thursday, increased winds in the northeast mountains will likely yield very low wind chills which may require a Cold Weather Advisory going from late Thursday morning into Friday early afternoon, however winds did come down from the last forecast package therefore the dayshift can re-evaluate to see if the trend continue in which case we would not need an advisory.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
High pressure dominates until late Monday when a clipper system tracks past the area supplying chances of rain to the lowlands and snow in the highest elevations. Another disturbance directly behind the clipper will reinforce more chances of precipitation through midweek, however models diverge greatly by this time frame, therefore accepted central guidance which was a blended model solution keeping chances on the table from midweek and on. Temperatures will moderate some starting this period and gradually above seasonable by the new work week and continue through midweek, hence the rain across the lowlands.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 635 PM Tuesday...
VFR flight conditions are expected to deteriorate as snow spreads into the area from the south overnight. IFR or worse visibilities are most likely to develop in heavier snow over the mountains and along and south of I-64. Sub-VFR conditions are also expected to the northwest within a briefer period of snow Wednesday morning. The first wave of snow slides east, allowing for some improvement within the lowlands Wednesday afternoon and evening. Precipitation then spreads back across the area Wednesday night.
Light north to northeast winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of snow and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 02/19/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H L H L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M M M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible once again on Thursday with snow.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ006-014- 015-027-517-519.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ005-013- 024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for WVZ521>524-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for OHZ087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for KYZ101>103.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for KYZ105.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ003-004.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 343 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
The Ohio River flooding lingers through today. Accumulating snow showers for today which will continue through Thursday amid passing disturbances. Bitter cold the rest of this week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 245 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Accumulating snow showers sweep across eastern Kentucky and the southern half of West Virginia through midday Wednesday.
* Highest confidence in higher snow totals continues to be across our southern forecast area into the mountains, ranging between 3 to 7 inches.
* Given the southern track of this system, there is less confidence for areas north of I-64 and west of I-79 to receive higher than 2 to 4 inches of snow.
* Wind chills bottom out into the single digits above zero for most locations overnight.
Snow started coming into the area around midnight, and at least light snow has spread over the CWA a bit faster than previously expected, with snow arriving at even Charleston right around 1AM. Snow totals didn't change too much with this event - maybe ticked up a bit for some of the area, including the central and northern mountains. However, will maintain the advisory in those areas as this is going to be a long-duration event that impacts most of the area in two phases over 36+ hours, so impacts will likely not be as severe as they would be if the snow fell all within 24 hours. The first phase of the system is now through early afternoon today with the northern edge of the coastal low precip shield, with the second being tonight into Thursday with widespread showers. In between, much of the area should see a break in the snow this afternoon and evening (and far northern areas may indeed see very little snow from phase 1) before an upper-level low crossing the area triggers widespread snow showers tonight into Thursday.
Winds will be light across the area for most of the period, generally blowing from the north or northeast when they do blow.
It will remain very cold for mid-February, with high temps forecast in the 20s for the bulk of the area, and some of the mountains may stay stuck in the teens. Quite cold tonight, with lows ranging from the mid single digits above zero in the mountains to the mid-teens in some lower elevations.
Fortunately, winds don't look like they will really start to pick up until during the day on Thursday, in the short-term period, so no Cold Weather Advisory appears to be needed tonight.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
Upper level closed low will give a second bout of snowfall as it slides from west to east across the area on Thursday. As the feature moves away from the area toward the east, wrap around flow will aid in bringing moisture from the Great Lakes and help keep accumulations going for at least the mountains.
Some snow can get into the lowlands from banding, however amounts should be on the lighter side, if any.
The potential for the lowlands will end by the evening and snowfall will likely continue in the northeast mountains due to upslope snow. This potential could persist into almost Friday afternoon, but this would likely be only 1-3 additional inches in the mountains. However, as high pressure builds in quickly from the west that system could cut off moisture and dry out the area sooner. Initially, had lower chances of snow previously, although the neighbors ramped up PoPs, therefore increased them to match up, but still thinking it may cut off earlier.
This high pressure system will keep us settled for once through the rest of this period and into the next period. For Thursday, increased winds in the northeast mountains will likely yield very low wind chills which may require a Cold Weather Advisory going from late Thursday morning into Friday early afternoon, however winds did come down from the last forecast package therefore the dayshift can re-evaluate to see if the trend continue in which case we would not need an advisory.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
High pressure dominates until late Monday when a clipper system tracks past the area supplying chances of rain to the lowlands and snow in the highest elevations. Another disturbance directly behind the clipper will reinforce more chances of precipitation through midweek, however models diverge greatly by this time frame, therefore accepted central guidance which was a blended model solution keeping chances on the table from midweek and on. Temperatures will moderate some starting this period and gradually above seasonable by the new work week and continue through midweek, hence the rain across the lowlands.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 635 PM Tuesday...
VFR flight conditions are expected to deteriorate as snow spreads into the area from the south overnight. IFR or worse visibilities are most likely to develop in heavier snow over the mountains and along and south of I-64. Sub-VFR conditions are also expected to the northwest within a briefer period of snow Wednesday morning. The first wave of snow slides east, allowing for some improvement within the lowlands Wednesday afternoon and evening. Precipitation then spreads back across the area Wednesday night.
Light north to northeast winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of snow and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 02/19/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H L H L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M M M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible once again on Thursday with snow.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ006-014- 015-027-517-519.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ005-013- 024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for WVZ521>524-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for OHZ087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for KYZ101>103.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for KYZ105.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ003-004.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHTS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHTS
Wind History Graph: HTS
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic
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Charleston, WV,

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