Lavalette, WV Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV

June 18, 2024 2:36 AM EDT (06:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM
Moonrise 4:57 PM   Moonset 2:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 180537 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated showers or storms will be possible tonight and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 1105 PM Monday...

Updated PoPs to account for isolated showers/storms that have persisted across portions of the CWA Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 545 PM Monday...

Have updated PoPs, temperatures, and cloud cover to represent the latest trends. Overall, a very buoyant (MLCAPE of 2-3K J/Kg), but weakly forced atmosphere across the region this evening, with main forcing for ascent being relegated to antecedent outflow boundaries, land forced ascent, differential heating, etc. The best chance for isolated thunderstorms this evening will be across the Mid-Ohio Valley and in/near the higher terrain. General downslope flow across the central lowlands should limit activity compared to other areas. A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening, particularly across the Mid-Ohio Valley where deep-layer shear is most favorable for the potential for isolated organized development.

As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Oppressively hot and humid today and Tuesday * Pop-up thunderstorms could yield locally heavy rain and gusty winds this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon

Building heights aloft continue to support high pressure at the surface. Moisture streaming up out of the Gulf around surface high pressure will yield surface dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s today and Tuesday with oppressive humidity peaking Tuesday before a westward bulge in the the surface high shunts the richer dew points to the west and north of our forecast area. Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with these dew points will support heat index values 95 to just over 100 degrees.

Uncapped profiles will support pop-up convection both this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. No widespread severe or flooding threat is expected with this activity, but convective cores cores becoming precipitation loaded and collapsing could yield some localized damaging wind gusts along with locally very high rainfall rates.

Heat safety tips:

* Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals * Know the signs of heat illness

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 PM Monday...

High pressure across the eastern U.S. will remain in control Wednesday and Thursday, with continued above normal temperatures across the region. Overall, conditions should be relatively stable and drier, and am not really expecting much in the way of showers or storms to develop either of these days. Heat indices both days may not quite reach the 100 degree mark, but the heat will still be oppressive none the less, with at least upper 90s heat indices expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1205 PM Monday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control for much of the week, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will generally only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, may continue to warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across much of the lowland counties this weekend. Ridge finally breaks down towards the end of the period as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes region, sweeping a cold front through the area. Along with a break in the oppressive heat, showers and storms will become more numerous during the time.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are present at all sites, though brief MVFR isn't out of the question as a few showers and storms traverse the area.
Activity should gradually lessen early this morning, then a few areas of fog may form - generally in locations that received rain earlier in the night. Any fog should dissipate around sunrise, resulting in a return to areawide VFR. While mainly VFR conditions are then anticipated for the balance of the TAF period, brief reductions could occur in isolated showers and storms that once again develop during the day.

Light south to southeast flow is expected outside of convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief VIS restrictions could occur in fog overnight and showers/storms during the day. Coverage of both fog and precipitation may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 06/18/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

CLIMATE
As of 930 PM Monday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values.

Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | 95 / 99 (1931) | HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1994) | 96 /100 (1931) | CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 93 / 94 (1994) | 95 / 94 (1931) | PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 95 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931) | BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 85 / 90 (1944) | 89 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 89 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931) | -------------------------------------------------------- Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 | Sunday, 6/23 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 97 /105 (1931) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 /100 (1929) | HTS | 98 / 99 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 /100 (1930) | CKB | 97 / 98 (1953) | 96 / 97 (1923) | 95 / 96 (1957) | PKB | 99 / 97 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 / 94 (1964) | BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 91 (1931) | EKN | 93 / 92 (1953) | 94 / 93 (1923) | 91 / 89 (1899) | --------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records.

Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 98 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 98 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 97 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 99 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 91 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 94 | 96 (2012) | -----------------------------------------

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV 10 sm45 minE 0310 smClear81°F72°F74%30.13
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