Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
May 18, 2024 1:45 AM EDT (05:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 3:05 PM Moonset 2:46 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 180539 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 139 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into Sunday. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 720 PM Friday...
Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are expected to continue progressing northeast across the area as a wave lifts overhead tonight. The current forecast is generally on track this evening, with no significant changes made at this time.
As of 216 PM Friday...
A gloomy end to the work week is underway this afternoon as an upper level wave tracks through the Ohio Valley, progged to arrive over the forecast area heading into the evening/overnight hours. A ribbon of stronger jet stream winds streams up from the southwest may provide enough support, coupled with peeks of sunshine within the canopy of overcast skies already parked overhead, to sprout a few storms during peak heating hours.
Radar trends at the time of writing show mainly stratiform rain passing over the Central Appalachians, but already seeing some breaks in the clouds that could promote convection here shortly.
With increased storm activity possible this afternoon also comes the potential for heavier rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft depicted by forecast soundings under 30kts suggest slow moving activity for this afternoon. Coupled with heavy downpours, this could promote localized instances of flooding to grow possible.
Forecast rainfall amounts remain highest for our forecast office neighbors to our east, but certainly will be something to monitor through the course of the day.
Plethora of low level moisture tonight will maintain widespread clouds overnight tonight, but will gradually attempt to erode from west to east on Saturday. Hi-res CAMs suggest convective activity will be more plentiful for the Mid-Atlantic region and along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday afternoon, but did retain light POPs for the central lowlands as well. Temperatures will once again be dependent on sky conditions for sufficient daytime heating.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM Friday...
Drier on Sunday with surface high pressure and upper level ridge nudging eastward into the area. Could still see a pop up shower or storm, mainly over the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but most areas should remain dry. Upper ridge will continue to build eastward early next week, with increasing heat and humidity. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out early next week, particularly from any passing weak disturbance, or just due to effects of daytime heating, but most of the period should remain dry with little to no development.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1217 PM Friday...
Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday, although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to uncertainty.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 135 AM Saturday...
Rain and showers across the area will gradually pull off to the northeast early this morning. Expect MVFR conditions in the precipitation with some IFR conditions at times. Some clearing and holes in the clouds will allow for dense fog in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and portions of western West Virginia.
After the fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck.
Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area Saturday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of fog early this morning could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/18/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M M L L H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H L H M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M L L L L L L H H CKB CONSISTENCY L H H L L L M L L M M H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR in dense fog expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning. IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 139 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into Sunday. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 720 PM Friday...
Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are expected to continue progressing northeast across the area as a wave lifts overhead tonight. The current forecast is generally on track this evening, with no significant changes made at this time.
As of 216 PM Friday...
A gloomy end to the work week is underway this afternoon as an upper level wave tracks through the Ohio Valley, progged to arrive over the forecast area heading into the evening/overnight hours. A ribbon of stronger jet stream winds streams up from the southwest may provide enough support, coupled with peeks of sunshine within the canopy of overcast skies already parked overhead, to sprout a few storms during peak heating hours.
Radar trends at the time of writing show mainly stratiform rain passing over the Central Appalachians, but already seeing some breaks in the clouds that could promote convection here shortly.
With increased storm activity possible this afternoon also comes the potential for heavier rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft depicted by forecast soundings under 30kts suggest slow moving activity for this afternoon. Coupled with heavy downpours, this could promote localized instances of flooding to grow possible.
Forecast rainfall amounts remain highest for our forecast office neighbors to our east, but certainly will be something to monitor through the course of the day.
Plethora of low level moisture tonight will maintain widespread clouds overnight tonight, but will gradually attempt to erode from west to east on Saturday. Hi-res CAMs suggest convective activity will be more plentiful for the Mid-Atlantic region and along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday afternoon, but did retain light POPs for the central lowlands as well. Temperatures will once again be dependent on sky conditions for sufficient daytime heating.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM Friday...
Drier on Sunday with surface high pressure and upper level ridge nudging eastward into the area. Could still see a pop up shower or storm, mainly over the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but most areas should remain dry. Upper ridge will continue to build eastward early next week, with increasing heat and humidity. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out early next week, particularly from any passing weak disturbance, or just due to effects of daytime heating, but most of the period should remain dry with little to no development.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1217 PM Friday...
Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday, although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to uncertainty.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 135 AM Saturday...
Rain and showers across the area will gradually pull off to the northeast early this morning. Expect MVFR conditions in the precipitation with some IFR conditions at times. Some clearing and holes in the clouds will allow for dense fog in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and portions of western West Virginia.
After the fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck.
Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area Saturday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of fog early this morning could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/18/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M M L L H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H L H M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M L L L L L L H H CKB CONSISTENCY L H H L L L M L L M M H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR in dense fog expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning. IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV | 10 sm | 54 min | SE 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.86 |
Charleston, WV,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE