Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bodega Bay, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 950 AM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough of low pressure over the Eastern Pacific, with multiple areas of low pressure rotating around this trough. One of this areas of low pressure is retrograding a bit, which is allowing the high pressure system over the Desert Southwest to expand more over California today.
That said, the upper level flow over California remains out of the southwest, and we continue to see high clouds streaming through this flow into Central California. These clouds are not going to limit heating today, and given the building ridge, expect inland areas to warm 3 to 5 degrees today over yesterday.

Meanwhile, did once again see a good marine layer push this morning, despite it being slightly shallower, around 1500 feet. We also some drizzle along the immediate coast in San Mateo and Monterey County this morning, with 0.01 inch reported. Given the marine layer being slightly shallower, it is clearing more quickly this morning. However, expect it to once again to linger along the coast today, with some areas struggling to see the sun.
Therefore, expect coastal areas to remain at or below normal for this time of year, while the inland areas see the warmer conditions.

One other note is that we did see significant nocturnal drying in the higher elevations last night. In fact, we had widespread fair to moderate with areas of poor recoveries, especially down in the Santa Lucia, where several sites struggled to recover to 30 percent. Expect these overnight recovery conditions to continue to worsen tonight, as the ridge takes hold, and the marine layer compresses even more. Palmer

SHORT TERM
Issued at 1145 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 (Today and tonight)

Mid/upper level clouds continue to stream from southwest to northeast across our area with mild temperatures expected once again overnight into early Tuesday morning. The mild start to the day will help bump temperatures at least a few degrees (away from the marine layer) higher from Mondays values as the influence from upper level ridging over the Four Corners nudges west. H85 temperatures will be around 23-24C by peak heating which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. With that, the warmest temperatures will be at higher elevations, especially the East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias, including higher portions of the Timber Fire. Fortunately, light winds continue to be a mitigating factor to more rapid spreading of the fire.

LONG TERM
Issued at 1145 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)

Warmer temperatures persist Wednesday under the influence of the aforementioned ridging aloft, however the troughing over the EPAC pushes back east and slightly north by Thursday with a sharpening trough axis well offshore. The cool down for Thursday through the remainder of the extended forecast will be subtle and gradual.
There are at least two tropical waves that will pass well to our south, the first on Thursday followed by a more organized wave with tropical development possible by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. We'll be keeping an eye on any midlevel moisture advection north from either of the two waves.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

IFR-LIFR everywhere as stratus pushes into the Bay Area and Central Coast. Models are not capturing the current marine layer well and continue to show it compressing to ~1000 feet while it stays around 1500 to 2000 feet in actuality. Opted to follow a general persistence forecast for clearing by late morning and for stratus return later tonight. Stratus will be more persistent along the coast, potentially impacting HAF all day, with only a brief period of VFR at MRY and SNS. Some potential for fog along the coast this morning with moderate reductions in visibility at HAF, MRY, and SNS already being observed. Given the relatively stable forecast, moderate confidence in a persistence forecast again tonight with a mix of IFR to LIFR conditions returning this evening and coastal reductions in visibility early tomorrow morning.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR ceilings generally persist until late this morning. LAMP guidance suggests some potential for ceilings to go from IFR to MVFR shortly before clearing around 18Z. Gusty onshore winds are expected this afternoon and evening before winds ease overnight. Opted for a more persistence based forecast of IFR ceilings again tonight with stratus returning around 05Z and lasting through the rest of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR-IFR ceilings continue through late morning with moderate confidence in clearing around 18/19Z. VFR conditions briefly return this afternoon before IFR to LIFR conditions redevelop early this evening into the overnight hours.
Followed persistence to show the lowering of stratus from IFR to LIFR with substantial reductions in visibility becoming more likely closer to 12Z. Moderate onshore winds expected this afternoon before winds ease overnight.

MARINE
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 950 AM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A fresh to strong northwest breeze will develop across the outer waters through the day and extend into the inner waters tonight into Wednesday. Winds then remain elevated through the end of the forecast period. Locally stronger winds are possible in the coastal jet regions north of Point Reyes and along the Big Sur coast. Seas build to 7 to 9 feet Tuesday and Wednesday before subsiding late week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The marine layer will gradually compress over the next 24 to 36 hours, as high pressure builds over the region. As a result, nocturnal drying will be possible through at least mid-week for the higher elevations, with more widespread fair to moderate recoveries developing over the higher elevations, especially in and around the Timber Fire.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.