Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bodega Bay, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday)

Ongoing showers, with brief downpours possible at times this afternoon, will persist through the remainder of today and tonight.
The well defined center of a slow moving (nearly stationary today)
upper level low off the coast of the Bay Area can be seen clearly on satellite and radar. Several bands of light to moderate showers will continue to move onshore through this evening. Our entire area has seen at least some rainfall over the past 24hrs with coastal areas and the higher terrain of the coastal ranges seeing between 0.50"- 1.5" and lower lying interior locations seeing around 0.10"-0.50".

A slight chance of (sub-severe) thunderstorms continues through the remainder of the afternoon over the Central Coast with surface based CAPE values ranging between 200-400 (or a little higher in some spots), however with the vertically stacked nature of the upper low attm, there is essentially no shear to tap into the instability.
Thus, rainfall will gradually taper off overnight and be mostly done by sunrise Thursday morning over land, with showers continuing offshore tracking south with the upper low during the day tomorrow.
Highs Thursday will increase 3-5 degrees from today, with morning clouds clearing for most locations in the afternoon.

LONG TERM
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Positively tilted shortwave ridging begins to set in across our area Thursday night with coastal fog and drizzle possible Friday and Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal values Friday and Saturday, mainly the upper 50s to mid- 60s. A deepening offshore trough Saturday night with decreases in midlevel heights and thickness values will lead to increasing rain chances through the day on Sunday, which will begin a wet pattern that will persist through the remainder of the extended forecast.

By early Sunday morning, we'll see the influence of the deepening trough begin to impact the coast before gradually progressing inland during the day. Wind gusts up to 25-30mph early Sunday morning will increase to 35-40mph by Sunday afternoon along with increasing rain chances throughout the day, first along the coast then pushing farther inland. The exact details of the larger scale pattern lacks consensus, however the highly amplified longwave pattern and continuous troughing expected to produce numerous waves of precipitation over the next one to two weeks is supported by todays update from the Climate Prediction Center, highlighting the West Coast with above normal chances for precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR is forecast to prevail at most TAF sites, with the exception of intermittent MVFR ceilings at KSTS, KHAF, and KAPC. The main low pressure feature to the west will remain stationary and bring waves of SHRA and south to east winds. Confidence in precip is high, but confidence in wind gust magnitudes is medium and the latest TAF set adjusts winds downward by around 5 to 8 knots. By this evening, winds will trend more easterly and continue to diminish. In fact, at KAPC and KSTS, NE'ly winds are forecast in later periods of the TAF. The greatest coverage of SHRA is anticipated to between now and through 02Z, though areas such as OAK, SJC, and to some degree APC, may see a lower coverage due to terrain features to the west and south of these sites. TS cannot be completely discounted and the best chances, around 5-10%, reside at TAF sites along the Pacific Coast.

Vicinity of SFO...SE'ly winds near or above 13 knots will likely encourage a SE plan config through the afternoon hours. Some guidance has trended a little quicker with the potential for winds to drop down to or below 10 knots by 00Z, but the model consensus is closer to 02Z. In addition, brief wind shifts to more of an easterly wind cannot be discounted, with more erratic wind directions near SHRA. Confidence is high that between 01Z-03Z the coverage of precipitation will diminish and winds will subside such that there's more flexibility in runway configs. While VFR is anticipated, IMC due to cigs at or below FL050 are forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...IMC due to cigs at or below FL050 are forecast through the TAF cycle.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain showers will continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. IFR visibility, especially at MRY, cannot be discounted with brief stints of SHRA/+SHRA. South to east winds are forecast, though confidence in gust magnitude is low. I've opted to omit gusts from KSNS due to the weaker wind field. At MRY, however, gusts in the 22-25 knot range are advertised as winds aloft here remain stronger.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Fresh to strong southerly breezes are advertised through today with a risk for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
Otherwise moderate to rough seas are forecast. While westerly to northwesterly swell will dominate, south to southwesterly swell will persist mainly for inner and outer waters south of the Monterey Peninsula. Moderate to rough seas are forecast this weekend, with a potential for 12 to 15 second period swell. This will equate to hazardous boating and near-shore conditions.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.