Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dahlgren, VA
December 5, 2023 8:06 PM EST (01:06 UTC)
Sunrise 7:09AM Sunset 4:49PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 12:57PM
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 633 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt...becoming N late. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon, then becoming w. Waves 2 ft. Rain through the day. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt...becoming N late. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon, then becoming w. Waves 2 ft. Rain through the day. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ500 633 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a quick moving low pressure system will cross the area through early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a quick moving low pressure system will cross the area through early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 051943 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
A clipper system will cross the area through Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 2pm, a potent shortwave was crossing WV, and a surface low was evident in the same region. These features will continue to quickly make their way eastward through tonight, and will be the focal point for unsettled weather through Wednesday morning.
As we move into the evening, precipitation is likely to overspread much of the region. This will generally be an elevation-based event in regards to snowfall accumulation.
The Northern Virginia Blue Ridge zone was placed under a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight into early Wednesday morning due to favorable overlap of cold temperatures and increased lift. To the west, the advisory was extended until 1pm Wednesday for western Grant southward to western Highland; the DGZ will lower, upslope-enhanced precipitation will linger, and winds will increase resulting in (1) lingering higher snowfall rates, and (2) reduced visibility. Snowfall totals should be limited to coating to areas NW of US-29, with two exceptions: (1) 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected along the crest of the Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, and possibly some of the higher foothills surrounding the Shenandoah Valley, and (2) around 3 to 6 inches along and west of the Allegheny Front (isolated slightly higher totals can't be ruled out here). West-facing slopes will be most favored given the wind direction/synoptic setup, with the highest totals generally above 2500 feet.
Heading east toward the DC/Baltimore metro areas into the Fredericksburg to southern MD region, more marginal low-level temperatures could result in occasional snow mixing with rain showers, but accumulation is not anticipated at the moment.
As the system moves offshore by Wednesday afternoon, winds will increase out of the W/NW. A few gusts to 30 mph are possible, but persistent cloud cover may result in sub-optimal mixing and thus the current forecast has prevailing gusts about 4-8 mph lower than that. Either way, it will turn out brisk.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Partial clearing is expected Wednesday night as high pressure and broad ridging approach the Mid-Atlantic. Winds may stay up a bit and prevent ideal radiational cooling, but in areas where the sky becomes a bit more clear and the wind goes calm, temperatures may plummet several degrees below currently advertised values. This would be most likely across the lowlands of north-central VA.
A mid/upper wave will pivot to the north Thursday as troughing departs. The low levels look a bit dry, but the day will probably end up mostly cloudy with a mid/high level overcast. If there is enough moisture, there could be just enough lift for some sprinkles or flurries near/north of I-70. Otherwise, dry and slightly milder/less breezy conditions are expected through Thursday night.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A deep upper trough will dig across the Rockies and Northern Plains on Friday. Further downstream, we'll have shortwave ridging overhead. At the surface, a strong area of low pressure will track across southeastern Manitoba into far western Ontario. High pressure will progress offshore to the east of the Carolinas. This will place us in southerly flow at low levels. Southerly winds will allow warmer air to work back into the area. Temperatures on Friday will top out in the mid 50s to low 60s for most beneath partly cloudy skies.
The primary area of low pressure over Canada will track northeastward toward Hudson Bay on Saturday, leaving a sharp frontal boundary draped south-southwestward through the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. A secondary area of low pressure will develop along this frontal boundary in the Mississippi Valley as troughing starts to sharpen to its west. High pressure will remain in place offshore keeping us in southerly flow again locally. It will be another mild day beneath mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will once again top out in the mid 50s to low 60s.
The aforementioned area of low pressure will rapidly intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes Saturday night, and then eventually Ontario/Quebec on Sunday. Meanwhile, the system's mid-upper level shortwave will assume a negative tilt as it progresses overhead by later Sunday into Sunday night. This system will produce a soaking rainfall across the area Sunday into Sunday night, with ensemble means from both the EPS and GEFS between a half of an inch and an inch. Some ensemble members also show some limited surface-based instability developing Sunday afternoon. If this were to occur, there could be a threat for some thunderstorms, and potentially even severe thunderstorms, given very strong winds in place just above the surface. We'll continue to monitor this potential over the upcoming days.
As the system's cold front moves through Sunday night, much cooler air will filter back into the area. Rain may change over to snow along the Allegheny Front before ending. Winds may potentially be strong both ahead of and behind the cold front Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Depending on how the system evolves, wind headlines may potentially be needed.
Drier conditions are expected on Monday as low pressure progresses well off to our north. Winds will remain gusty out of the west to southwest. Spread with respect to the temperature forecast on Monday is considerable, but ensemble means favor high temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s at the moment.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected into the evening with a developing stratocu deck around FL035-050. Light W/NW flow is expected.
Reduced CIGs/VSBYs are likely especially west of US-15 tonight into Wednesday morning as a clipper low brings a round of showers, which may even mix with snow (especially at MRB, where a period of all snow is also possible after about 03z tonight.
For BWI and MTN, there is a bit more uncertainty, as the majority of precip may drop to the south. Overall, IFR appears most likely at MRB/CHO, with MVFR for the metro terminals - though some drops to IFR are possible especially near IAD late.
VFR conditions are expected later Wednesday morning through Thursday. Gusty W/NW winds Wednesday may gust to around 25 kts.
VFR conditions appear likely on both Friday and Saturday. Conditions may deteriorate to sub-VFR Saturday night as rain and low ceilings move into the area. Winds will be out of the south on both Friday and Saturday.
MARINE
Winds should remain less than 15 kts through tonight out of the W/NW. A clipper system will swing through tonight into Wednesday with 25-30 kt gusts likely in its wake out of the W/NW by Wednesday afternoon.
Winds begin to taper a bit Wednesday night, especially over narrower waterways, but 20-25 kt gusts likely persist over the wider waters until at least daybreak on Thursday.
Thursday brings lighter westerly winds over the waters, with no marine hazards expected at this time. Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters on both Friday and Saturday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Northwesterly flow weakened this afternoon resulting in increasing anomalies. Some sensitive sites may approach action stage tonight. Anomalies likely decrease Wednesday as winds increase out of the NW. Flow becomes southerly Thursday and persists through most of the weekend increasing tidal anomalies and likely bringing sensitive locations to action by the end of the week.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ001.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ503.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ507.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ501- 505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
A clipper system will cross the area through Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 2pm, a potent shortwave was crossing WV, and a surface low was evident in the same region. These features will continue to quickly make their way eastward through tonight, and will be the focal point for unsettled weather through Wednesday morning.
As we move into the evening, precipitation is likely to overspread much of the region. This will generally be an elevation-based event in regards to snowfall accumulation.
The Northern Virginia Blue Ridge zone was placed under a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight into early Wednesday morning due to favorable overlap of cold temperatures and increased lift. To the west, the advisory was extended until 1pm Wednesday for western Grant southward to western Highland; the DGZ will lower, upslope-enhanced precipitation will linger, and winds will increase resulting in (1) lingering higher snowfall rates, and (2) reduced visibility. Snowfall totals should be limited to coating to areas NW of US-29, with two exceptions: (1) 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected along the crest of the Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, and possibly some of the higher foothills surrounding the Shenandoah Valley, and (2) around 3 to 6 inches along and west of the Allegheny Front (isolated slightly higher totals can't be ruled out here). West-facing slopes will be most favored given the wind direction/synoptic setup, with the highest totals generally above 2500 feet.
Heading east toward the DC/Baltimore metro areas into the Fredericksburg to southern MD region, more marginal low-level temperatures could result in occasional snow mixing with rain showers, but accumulation is not anticipated at the moment.
As the system moves offshore by Wednesday afternoon, winds will increase out of the W/NW. A few gusts to 30 mph are possible, but persistent cloud cover may result in sub-optimal mixing and thus the current forecast has prevailing gusts about 4-8 mph lower than that. Either way, it will turn out brisk.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Partial clearing is expected Wednesday night as high pressure and broad ridging approach the Mid-Atlantic. Winds may stay up a bit and prevent ideal radiational cooling, but in areas where the sky becomes a bit more clear and the wind goes calm, temperatures may plummet several degrees below currently advertised values. This would be most likely across the lowlands of north-central VA.
A mid/upper wave will pivot to the north Thursday as troughing departs. The low levels look a bit dry, but the day will probably end up mostly cloudy with a mid/high level overcast. If there is enough moisture, there could be just enough lift for some sprinkles or flurries near/north of I-70. Otherwise, dry and slightly milder/less breezy conditions are expected through Thursday night.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A deep upper trough will dig across the Rockies and Northern Plains on Friday. Further downstream, we'll have shortwave ridging overhead. At the surface, a strong area of low pressure will track across southeastern Manitoba into far western Ontario. High pressure will progress offshore to the east of the Carolinas. This will place us in southerly flow at low levels. Southerly winds will allow warmer air to work back into the area. Temperatures on Friday will top out in the mid 50s to low 60s for most beneath partly cloudy skies.
The primary area of low pressure over Canada will track northeastward toward Hudson Bay on Saturday, leaving a sharp frontal boundary draped south-southwestward through the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. A secondary area of low pressure will develop along this frontal boundary in the Mississippi Valley as troughing starts to sharpen to its west. High pressure will remain in place offshore keeping us in southerly flow again locally. It will be another mild day beneath mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will once again top out in the mid 50s to low 60s.
The aforementioned area of low pressure will rapidly intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes Saturday night, and then eventually Ontario/Quebec on Sunday. Meanwhile, the system's mid-upper level shortwave will assume a negative tilt as it progresses overhead by later Sunday into Sunday night. This system will produce a soaking rainfall across the area Sunday into Sunday night, with ensemble means from both the EPS and GEFS between a half of an inch and an inch. Some ensemble members also show some limited surface-based instability developing Sunday afternoon. If this were to occur, there could be a threat for some thunderstorms, and potentially even severe thunderstorms, given very strong winds in place just above the surface. We'll continue to monitor this potential over the upcoming days.
As the system's cold front moves through Sunday night, much cooler air will filter back into the area. Rain may change over to snow along the Allegheny Front before ending. Winds may potentially be strong both ahead of and behind the cold front Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Depending on how the system evolves, wind headlines may potentially be needed.
Drier conditions are expected on Monday as low pressure progresses well off to our north. Winds will remain gusty out of the west to southwest. Spread with respect to the temperature forecast on Monday is considerable, but ensemble means favor high temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s at the moment.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected into the evening with a developing stratocu deck around FL035-050. Light W/NW flow is expected.
Reduced CIGs/VSBYs are likely especially west of US-15 tonight into Wednesday morning as a clipper low brings a round of showers, which may even mix with snow (especially at MRB, where a period of all snow is also possible after about 03z tonight.
For BWI and MTN, there is a bit more uncertainty, as the majority of precip may drop to the south. Overall, IFR appears most likely at MRB/CHO, with MVFR for the metro terminals - though some drops to IFR are possible especially near IAD late.
VFR conditions are expected later Wednesday morning through Thursday. Gusty W/NW winds Wednesday may gust to around 25 kts.
VFR conditions appear likely on both Friday and Saturday. Conditions may deteriorate to sub-VFR Saturday night as rain and low ceilings move into the area. Winds will be out of the south on both Friday and Saturday.
MARINE
Winds should remain less than 15 kts through tonight out of the W/NW. A clipper system will swing through tonight into Wednesday with 25-30 kt gusts likely in its wake out of the W/NW by Wednesday afternoon.
Winds begin to taper a bit Wednesday night, especially over narrower waterways, but 20-25 kt gusts likely persist over the wider waters until at least daybreak on Thursday.
Thursday brings lighter westerly winds over the waters, with no marine hazards expected at this time. Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters on both Friday and Saturday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Northwesterly flow weakened this afternoon resulting in increasing anomalies. Some sensitive sites may approach action stage tonight. Anomalies likely decrease Wednesday as winds increase out of the NW. Flow becomes southerly Thursday and persists through most of the weekend increasing tidal anomalies and likely bringing sensitive locations to action by the end of the week.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ001.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ503.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ507.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ501- 505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NCDV2 | 1 mi | 49 min | E 6G | 46°F | 50°F | |||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 30 mi | 49 min | SE 5.1G | |||||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 32 mi | 49 min | E 7G | 47°F | 51°F | 30.00 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 36 mi | 49 min | N 8G | 46°F | 30.03 | |||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 38 mi | 43 min | E 9.7G | 43°F | 50°F | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 38 mi | 97 min | 0 | 42°F | 30.01 | 33°F | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 38 mi | 49 min | SE 4.1G | 47°F | 50°F | 30.00 | ||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 39 mi | 49 min | E 1.9G | 46°F | 45°F | 30.01 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 43 mi | 43 min | E 7.8G | 45°F | 51°F | 0 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA | 19 sm | 10 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 45°F | 30.02 | |||
| KEZF SHANNON,VA | 21 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 45°F | 36°F | 70% | 29.99 | |
| KRMN STAFFORD RGNL,VA | 22 sm | 11 min | ENE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 34°F | 70% | 30.00 |
Wind History from NYG
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Dahlgren
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:47 AM EST 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST 1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:04 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EST 1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:47 AM EST 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST 1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:04 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EST 1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Mathias Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 03:29 AM EST 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:47 AM EST 1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:46 PM EST 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 10:07 PM EST 1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 03:29 AM EST 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:47 AM EST 1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:46 PM EST 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 10:07 PM EST 1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mathias Point, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Sterling, VA,
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