Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday July 11, 2020 10:52 PM EDT (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 11:08AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1037 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall near the waters throughout the weekend. The front will push eastward into the atlantic on Monday as high pressure builds over the eastern united states through much of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren CDP, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 120114 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 914 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will remain stalled near or just east of the Chesapeake Bay this weekend as an upper level disturbance drops into the region on Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure will push the boundary off the coast and dominate over much of the eastern U.S. through the upcoming work week, with an extended stretch of hot and humid conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. West/northwest winds early this evening have kept any showers/thunderstorms to a minimum. With the loss of daytime heating, believe whatever scant threat there was has passed. Still have some clouds east of the Blue Ridge, likely associated with the weak frontal boundary stalled in the vicinity. Dewpoints have dropped into the 60s. Low temperatures match, with forecast lows near 70 due to urban heat effects along I-95.

On Sunday, a shortwave digging further south over the midwest will push eastward. That energy doesn't arrive until late in the day, so most of the day should be dry and hot again -- especially east of the Blue Ridge. In the mountains, the upper energy arrives in the afternoon, combining with orographic lift to spark scattered to numerous showers and storms. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in that area, which is certainly plausible. Have lowered max temps west of the Blue Ridge a bit, but in the metro areas, it should be just as hot as today -- if not hotter since a few spots have seen cooling showers today.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The trough axis from Sunday's shortwave swings through on Sunday night, so PoPs continue all night long, though the severe threat should diminish. Some guidance has yet another shortwave on Monday, which we will have to keep an eye on. For now, I've held close to continuity with the rain chances, but brought temperatures down just a bit from the weekend maxes. Once the trough exits, zonal flow to weak ridging builds in, putting a stop to the rain chances for Monday night, though the heat persists.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An upper level low centered over northern New England will continue to track northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes as ridging to our west begins to advect eastward. As a result, surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will lead to dry conditions and near normal temperatures Tuesday.

A near zonal flow develops by midweek as high pressure maintains control of the region. Strong upper level high pressure over the southwestern US will slowly begin to shift east over the central plains which will cause the jet stream to become more displaced well to our north. This ultimately strengthens the ridge over the Mid- Atlantic and therefore will likely keep our area mostly dry as there doesn't appear to be any significant shortwaves or areas of low pressure in the extended period. However, can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers and/or thunderstorms due to diurnal heating. With that being said, the best potential for any convective weather looks to come by the weekend as a NW flow ensues to which a weak shortwave may track across the region.

There will be an uptick in heat in humidity come midweek with the amplifying ridge. Thursday has the best potential to be the hottest day of the week with highs in the 90s (a 100 is not impossible in spots) and heat indices potentially above 100. The above normal heat may also continue into the weekend.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions likely through midday Sunday with winds becoming light after sunset. An upper level disturbance approaches by midday Sunday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the terminals late Sunday and Sunday night, bringing the potential for periodic sub VFR VIS/CIGs. Additional showers and thunderstorms may affect the terminals Monday afternoon and early evening as another upper level disturbance crosses.

High pressure will bring VFR conditions and light winds for Tuesday and Wednesday. Could see an isolated shower or storm on Thursday in the heat of the day.

MARINE. Gusty winds in the northern Chesapeake Bay and upper tidal Potomac have flirted with Small Craft Advisory criteria. The SCA issued for the upper Potomac didn't fare to well once it was issued; it has been cancelled. Still do have a few 20-25 kt gust reports in the northern Bay, so will let that SCA run through 11pm.

More locally gusty winds in showers and storms are possible late Sunday (more likely toward sunset or after) and again on Monday.

High pressure will build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday with light winds and no significant marine concerns. Some southerly channeling could bring winds close to SCA criteria Wednesday night or Thursday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 531-538.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . HTS/JE SHORT TERM . JE LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . JE/MSS MARINE . HTS/JE/MSS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi59 min W 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 86°F1007.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi59 min NW 7 G 8.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi59 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 82°F 83°F1008 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi77 min 1008.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi35 min NW 9.7 G 9.7 82°F 82°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi143 min WNW 1 1007 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi59 min NNW 5.1 G 6 85°F 84°F1008.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi59 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 84°F 85°F1008.2 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi57 minWNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds79°F68°F69%1008.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi58 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1008.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair74°F67°F80%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SW75SW5W7W83SW4SW6S63S5S4SE5S6SE56W11NW12
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1 day agoE6E5NE3NE7N7N6N7N7NW7N10N10NE9N7N7Calm5SE4E5SE3W5NW4S4S4E5
2 days agoSE9S7S10S4W5W4NW4W5W43--NE6NE7NE7NE8E8E7E6--E7E10E9E10E8

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:47 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.50.50.71.11.51.71.91.81.61.30.90.60.40.40.50.81.21.51.71.81.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Cedar Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.