Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:34PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:30 PM EDT (01:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:21PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 735 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 735 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build from the tennessee valley toward new england through Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from the great lakes and weakens. A strong area of low pressure will move across the ohio valley Wednesday, then re-develop over southeastern virginia and move up the coast toward new england Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday through Friday, with gales possible Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren CDP, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 141839
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
239 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build from the tennessee valley toward new
england through Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from
the great lakes and weakens. A strong area of low pressure will move
across the ohio valley Wednesday, then re-develop over southeastern
virginia and move up the coast toward new england Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure will follow Friday into the weekend.

Near term through tonight
High pressure building east from the tennessee valley this
afternoon and tonight. Dewpoints have dropped into the 30s due
to west winds near 10kt. Winds will diminish tonight, setting up
another favorable radiational cooling night. Have undercut the
guidance mean, with forecast lows in the upper 30s-lower 40s
outside of the urban centers next to the bay.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Expect another sunny day Tuesday under the firm control of high
pressure. Clouds will spread into the area Tuesday night in
advance of dual-stream low pressure. As for the precipitation
itself, though, guidance continues to delay onset. Have backed
off a little more Tuesday night, keeping forecast essentially
dry except for the charlottesville staunton waynesboro area.

A sharp trough axis across the great lakes Wednesday will sweep
across the mid atlantic, supporting the passage of a surface
cold front. Meanwhile, a second area of low pressure will cross
the southern conus, strengthening as the low reaches the coast
and interacts with northern stream energy. Have categorical
pops across the board, but the focus will be more on the coastal
during the afternoon hours. Have decent shear and minimal cape,
so have included a slight chance of thunder across the entire
forecast area as well.

Winds will increase (a core of 40 kt winds likely below 5000 ft
behind the front) and skies will clear Wednesday night as
deepening low pressure ejects northeast. Upslope showers likely.

These should be rain showers, but the peaks will drop close to
freezing by Thursday morning.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Low pressure will be pulling northeastward away from the region on
Thursday as high pressure builds eastward into the ohio valley. The
pressure gradient between these two features will lead to blustery
northwest flow and cool temperatures, with highs only in the 50s to
low 60s.

High pressure will then build overhead Friday and Saturday leading
to sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will be chilly at
night with lows in the 30s 40s, and near to slightly below normal
during the day, with highs in the 60s.

The surface high will then slide offshore on Sunday with
southwesterly return flow developing. This will usher in increasing
warmth, to be followed by increasing moisture Sunday night and
Monday as a low organizes in the central us. Rain chances will then
increase Sunday night and Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will
rebound back into the 70s, with lows in the 40s 50s.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions should prevail through Tuesday. May have some
patchy river valley fog tonight, but do not believe it will
impact the terminals.

Clouds will increase Tuesday night in advance of a cold front
Wednesday. A short period of flight restrictions near the time
of the frontal passage possible... Likely during the midday
hours. Would not rule out a rumble of thunder either. Otherwise,
vfr will prevail through Wednesday night. Winds will increase
Wednesday night as well. If the core of the winds do not mix to
the surface, then a low level wind shear set-up would be
possible.

PredominantlyVFR conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday
as high pressure builds eastward and into the region. Main aviation
weather concern will be gusty northwest winds Thursday.

Marine
Winds will be light through Tuesday and then increase from the
south (10-15 kt) Tuesday night. Low pressure cold front crosses
the waters Wednesday. Could be convective gusts near the front;
marine warnings possible. Then, in northwest flow behind the
front, small craft advisories highly likely and gales possible.

Small craft advisory conditions are likely Thursday with gale
conditions continuing to be possible behind a low pressure
system that will be exiting to the northeast. Small craft
advisory conditions may linger into Friday before slackening
Saturday as high pressure crests.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels under a foot above astronomical normals this
afternoon. Should be little change through Tuesday. Expect some
caution stages to be reached but no inundation. There is a
window for tides to increase Wednesday before a strong cold
front crosses the area. Would not rule out minor flooding at
sensitive locations prior to the frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Mm
aviation... Hts mm
marine... Hts mm
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 60°F 1015.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi43 min E 2.9 G 4.1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi43 min S 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 70°F1016.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi43 min S 5.8 G 5.8 68°F 1017.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi121 min Calm 62°F 1016 hPa55°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi49 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 64°F 67°F1016.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi43 min Calm G 1 66°F 69°F1016.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi31 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 70°F1019.4 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi35 minWNW 610.00 miFair60°F53°F78%1016.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair56°F52°F91%1016.6 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair53°F52°F100%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmNW4NW5NW7NW5NW5NW5NW5NW6NW5NW4S3S4S7S7S8S8S8S9S5CalmNW4NW6
1 day agoN8N6N4N7NE10NE9NE9N7N7N5N8E5E75N6CalmS4CalmCalmS3S4CalmN4SE4
2 days agoNW8NW5NW4NW7NW7NW8NW6NW6NW7NW5NW4CalmS4S6S6S4CalmCalmNE6N8NE3NW4NW5N3

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:57 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:12 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:39 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.41.71.81.71.410.60.30.10.20.50.91.41.821.91.71.30.80.40.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Cedar Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.