Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:55PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 11:01 PM EDT (03:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 3:41AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1037 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will slowly pass through the waters throught this evening as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. High pressure will build to the south for Wednesday before a reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. A small craft advisories may be required Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 300142 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 942 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front and wave of low pressure will move very slowly through the area overnight. Weak high pressure to our south will control the weather for Wednesday before a reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. Surface front is now in far southern Maryland, having cleared nearly all of the forecast area. A wave of low pressure currently moving eastward across central Virginia is bringing widespread rainfall to the region. Enhanced lift and low-level moisture advection should keep wet weather in place from the evening into the overnight hours, but rain will move out from west to east late tonight. Given the forward progression of the trough, precipitation elements should generally be on the move which will mitigate any discernible flood threats. Cannot rule out a few instances of flooding within any heavier downpours which linger a bit longer.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A drying trend will ensue from west to east on Wednesday morning as the upper trough will have lifted into lower New England. Dry downsloping westerly to southwesterly flow should clear skies out leading to a sunny day over much of the region. Conditions may be breezy at times but surface gradients are modest at best which should keep the winds down. Behind this system will be another upper trough primed to sweep through the northeastern U.S. late Thursday. This secondary cold frontal surge is forecast to bring additional rainfall chances late Thursday, with showers now likely Thursday night across much of the region. Until that wave moves through, however, a mild day will overspread the region with highs in the low to mid 70s. Conditions turn chillier overnight with the showers and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A broad upper trough will dominate over the Eastern U.S. for much of the long term portion of the forecast. Showers will be possible Friday morning as a shortwave trough pushes through the Mid- Atlantic. The axis of the trough will push to our east the second half of Friday and into Saturday with drier and cooler conditions as Canadian high pressure builds eastward from the Upper Plains and Midwest. Highs Friday and Saturday will be capped in the 60s areawide, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. We start to warm advect Sunday ahead of another digging shortwave while remaining entrenched in the broad cyclonic flow aloft. As these features approach the Ohio Valley late Sunday and Sunday night, will see clouds and rain chances increase, with the rain looking to hold off until the overnight hours based on model consensus. Evolution of the above features muddles a bit thereafter between global guidance, however the primary trough axis don't look to cross the region until Monday, so will advertise rain chances during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to run below normal for early October both Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Current ceilings have bounced around between VFR and IFR as low cloud decks move in and out of the terminals. Showers likely to move out of the region a bit quicker than previously believed, with a general improving trend starting around 6Z. VFR likely at all terminals by daybreak Wednesday. This should continue into Thursday accompanied by west to southwesterly winds. Another cold front moves through late Thursday with additional showers expected Thursday night, and potential for sub-VFR conditions.

Showers crossing the terminals Friday morning may yield periods of sub VFR conditions as winds trend northwesterly. High pressure will build into the region late Friday through Saturday, delivering light northerly winds and dry conditions, thus VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

MARINE. SCA conditions are likely overnight and Wednesday as cold air adveciton takes place behind the front currently moving through. Winds should subside to sub-SCA levels by Wednesday night into Thursday.

SCA conditions will be possible Friday and Friday night in the wake of an upper level disturbance and in a cold air advection regime. Canadian high pressure will build over the marine district this weekend, resulting in light northerly winds and sub SCA conditions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly breezes have ushered in rising anomalies, which will bring several of our tidal sites to Action stage into tonight. Most notably, the Annapolis location could see levels approach Minor flood stage between 08-10Z, though latest guidance suggests they may fall short.

Anomalies should fall overnight as a northwesterly flow develops.

EQUIPMENT. The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D outage, which began on September 20, 2020, will continue and remain out of service until on or about October 16, 2020.

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center (ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed on or about October 16, 2020.

During the downtime, adjacent supporting NWS radars include: Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).

For a radar mosaic loop for the region:

https:/radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php

Further updates about the situation will be issued as information becomes available. Thank you for your understanding during this extended outage.

Point of Contact:

Christopher Strong email: Christopher.Strong@noaa.gov office: 703-996-2223

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . BRO/RCM NEAR TERM . BRO/RCM SHORT TERM . BRO/RCM LONG TERM . BKF AVIATION . BKF/BRO/RCM MARINE . BKF/BRO/RCM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BRO/RCM EQUIPMENT . LWX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi50 min NW 7 G 15 57°F 73°F1006.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi44 min NNW 24 G 28
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi44 min NW 12 G 20 63°F 72°F1005 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi44 min NW 14 G 22 1005.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi20 min NW 16 G 18 64°F 71°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi92 min NW 4.1 1005 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi44 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 70°F1004.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi44 min WNW 8.9 G 20 58°F 70°F1007.2 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi66 minNW 18 G 276.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Breezy57°F53°F87%1007.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi67 minNW 8 G 1510.00 miHeavy Rain57°F56°F100%1007.1 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi67 minNNW 15 G 2510.00 miRain56°F56°F100%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S11S10S10S8S11S8SW4S12S10S10S13S14S10SE7SE5S4CalmN8N9N7N18
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1 day agoCalmS4S3SW5--S6--S7SW6S8S7S10S10S8S9SE9SE4S3S4S10S7S4S8S9
2 days agoNE3NE5NE5W5W6W5W4W4N3NW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmS4S6S6S4SW3S3CalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:30 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.821.91.71.30.90.50.30.30.50.91.31.61.81.81.61.30.90.50.30.20.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:49 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.10.20.40.711.31.41.31.10.80.60.30.20.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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