Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:50PM Sunday December 15, 2019 10:45 AM EST (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:28PMMoonset 10:21AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 938 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt...becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 938 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly build overhead today before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories likely will be required Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 151529 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1029 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will briefly build overhead today, before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

Winds have been all over the place this morning, but still are expected to strengthen out of the west later today. Expect sct- bkn cumulus along and west of the Blue Ridge and few clouds east.

Main attention is to tonight's fcst. Guidance has trended a bit faster with onset of precip since 24 hrs ago and believe there will be a little bit more snow than earlier anticipated. We plan to issue new advisories early this afternoon for a combination of snow, sleet, and fzra for areas along and west of Rt 15 and along the PA border. A Winter Storm Warning may be required for western Allegany for a significant combination of snow and freezing rain.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. An area of low pressure will be getting organized over the middle Mississippi River valley this evening into the overnight. Precipitation associated with the warm front attached to this system will spread into western portions of the CWA late tonight. Precipitation should start as mostly, or all, snow for a brief period tonight into early Monday morning, particularly over eastern WV and western MD. However, warm air aloft will quickly change precipitation over to a wintry mix Monday morning, and most areas change over to rain by the afternoon. The best shot to see any accumulating snowfall will be well to the north and west of I-95, particularly across eastern WV and western MD. Amounts of 1-2 inches are possible as you get north and west of the I-95 corridor, with amounts of 2-4 inches possible across eastern WV and western MD (with some isolated higher amounts possible). That being said, could still be seeing a mix of wintry precip Monday morning during the morning rush. Not expecting any big impacts across the DC/Baltimore metro areas at this time.

Without a cold surface high to the north to keep the cold air locked in place, any mixed precipitation is likely to be brief and light, with only trace or light amounts of ice expected. The one exception may be near the Mason-Dixon Line and across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. A layer of cold air may be tough to scour out due to light winds underneath the subsidence inversion. Did allow for some more freezing rain across these areas.

Rain/showers will continue off and on through Tue until frontal passage late Tue. Given the expected wintry mix and potential for hazardous travel conditions Monday morning, winter weather advisories are likely to be required for NW parts of the fcst area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A shortwave trough axis will cross the forecast area Wednesday morning, which will make way for a ridge of high pressure to cross the eastern United States for the end of the week. The high will have Canadian origins, with a bubble of -20C air at 850 mb crossing the northeast. Therefore, temperatures will be below normal, with Thursday coming in as the coldest day temperature-wise . coincident with the thermal trough. Look for a well mixed atmosphere behind the shortwave though, with numerous gusts 25 kt, so in terms of wind chills Wednesday may feel the coldest.

We'll be within return flow by late Friday, with a southern stream wave potentially spinning precip back across the area by Saturday.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected to pick up later in the morning through this afternoon. Winds relax tonight and Monday and pick up again Mon night or Tuesday with gusts up to 25-30kt possible. Rain is expected again late Sun night through Monday with snow possible at KMRB for a brief period Monday morning. Mixed wintry precipitation is also possible at IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN for a brief time this morning as well, primarily before noon.

VFR flight conditions anticipated Wednesday and Thursday. The only operational impact may come from 20-30 kt northwest wind gusts Wednesday.

MARINE. Currently in a lull in the winds across much of the waters, but this will change later this morning, as gusty west to northwest winds will continue today, with gusts around 20 to 25 knots expected. Winds relax later this evening. Winds remain below 10 kt tonight and Monday, before increasing again Monday night with potential for gales on Tuesday.

Gusty northwest winds will pick up once again behind a trough axis Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions probable. If full mixing were realized then gales would be possible. Will be keeping forecast under that level at this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ530>533-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ534>537-543.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . LFR SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . HTS AVIATION . LFR/HTS MARINE . LFR/HTS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi51 min WSW 9.9 G 13 47°F 46°F1013.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi51 min WSW 7 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi51 min WSW 15 G 18 48°F 46°F1014.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi33 min WSW 9.7 G 12 47°F 1015.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi135 min SSW 4.1 43°F 1011 hPa34°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi51 min WSW 13 G 16 48°F 44°F1015.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi51 min SSW 6 G 8 46°F 43°F1013.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi33 min SW 16 G 18 47°F 46°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi49 minSW 7 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F34°F58%1015 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi50 minSSW 1010.00 miFair46°F37°F72%1014.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi50 minSW 610.00 miFair47°F35°F62%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN5NW4CalmNE4N7NE6N5NW4N7N5NW7NW4NW6N3N4W3W4NW5CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN3SE3S3CalmCalmSE9SE9SE9E9E8E8E5W4W7W6NW5NE7N5N5N6N4N3N5

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:48 AM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:02 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:20 PM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.611.31.41.20.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.61.11.51.71.71.410.50.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:12 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:03 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-00.20.60.91.11.110.70.40.20-000.20.611.31.31.210.70.40.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.