Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stanardsville, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Some patchy dense fog is expected east of the Blue Ridge this morning before the cold front tracks through.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday night, with frost and/or freezing temperatures possible especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

3) Showers remain possible at times for the early to middle portions of next week as temperatures gradually climb.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some patchy dense fog is expected east of the Blue Ridge this morning before the cold front tracks through.

Based on dew point falls, the cold front has begun to push away from the Shenandoah Valley toward the Blue Ridge Mountains. The downstream air mass continues to be moisture laden in the low levels. Given light winds and some ground moisture from yesterday's rainfall, some locally dense fog has materialized over the last few hours across the Central Virginia Piedmont out toward the I-95 corridor. Visibilities have largely wavered between a quarter and a half mile across this area. While close to needing a Dense Fog Advisory, expect some improvements in the next hour as the cold front brings in drier air from the west.
Until this occurs, exercise caution on the roads by reducing speeds and maintaining a greater distance from the vehicle in front.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday night, with frost and/or freezing temperatures possible especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

A closed upper low will persist to the north into next week. It will gradually retreat northward with time, but some reinforcing troughs will sweep across the eastern U.S at times.
The net effect will be below average temperatures and occasional shower chances. Unfortunately for the drought, a widespread soaking is not anticipated.

The main hazard through this period will be the potential for frost/freeze conditions, with the greatest threat west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Tonight into Friday morning will offer the first opportunity as gusty northwest winds subside after sunset.
As such, a myriad of Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have been issued given forecast lows in the 30 to 35 degree range.
While still chilly, clouds may mitigate the threat somewhat Friday night. While Saturday night is forecast to be the coldest of the stretch, elevated northwest winds may limit the frost threat. However, the higher elevations in particular will likely drop below freezing. The air mass will start to moderate Sunday night into Monday morning. However, residual sub-freezing dew points west of the Blue Ridge could lead to at least a localized frost threat.

Subtle perturbations in the cyclonic flow will result in mainly daytime shower chances through Friday. This threat may be relegated to the Alleghenies today, with greater coverage expected on Friday. The deepest trough will approach on Saturday, likely leading to an area of low pressure developing along the Carolina coast. Some rain could spread into southeastern portions of the forecast area, but the northwest edge of precipitation shield remains uncertain. At a minimum, clouds will be more prevalent. The overall precipitation type should be rain, especially considering the highest chances are during the daytime periods. However, can't totally rule out some snowflakes or graupel pellets on the higher ridges on days with convective showers. Surface high pressure will cross the area Sunday with the upper level pattern flattening, leading to the driest day of the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers remain possible at times for the early to middle portions of next week as temperatures gradually climb.

Shortwave troughs will continue to drive relatively weak frontal systems toward the area next week. Depending on the timing of these systems, there will be shower chances each day. However, these chances may eventually consolidate as timing agreement increases. A few thunderstorms could also be in the mix, although severe weather probabilities appear low. With the main upper level gyre well to the north and surface high pressure setting up off the East Coast, there will be a gradual warming trend in temperatures through mid week, reaching near to above normal values. While there is some ensemble spread, the potential exists to reach the 80 degree mark by Tuesday and Wednesday.

By mid-week, ensemble precipitation probabilities rise markedly ahead of a stronger trough/frontal zone. This will provide a better chance for rainfall across the area. In the wake of this frontal passage, temperatures will again drop to near average.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
While the cold front is slow to cross the area, restrictions continue at a number of terminals. However, drier air has already begun to spread across the Shenandoah Valley behind this cold front. Would anticipate that any residual sub-VFR conditions should erode within the next 2 to 3 hours.

Behind this boundary, winds turn northwesterly with afternoon gusts to around 20 to 25 knots. Such winds gradually weaken into the night before turning more west to southwesterly on Friday.
An upper low to the north will bring scattered showers to the area on Friday, some of which could carry brief gusty winds.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the day. A coastal low pushing off the Carolinas will carry the risk of some additional rain chances on Saturday. Depending on how far the precipitation expands northwestward, some restrictions are possible. Overall winds will be northwesterly.

To finish the weekend, winds should generally be out of the west to northwest before shifting to southerly by Monday. VFR conditions are likely during the period although some scattered showers could impact a few terminals on Monday afternoon.

MARINE
While Small Craft Advisories remain in effect early this morning, there has been a bit of a lull ahead of the approaching cold front. However, still anticipating a ramp up in winds as northwesterly flow pushes in from the west. Expect 20 to 25 knot gusts to be commonplace across all waters today, especially during the late morning to afternoon hours. Such advisories continue through the early evening, although these will likely be extended into tonight for the southern-most waters.

Sub-advisory level winds are expected for Friday and Saturday as multiple wind shifts occur upon frontal/trough passages.

West to northwesterly winds ramp up again on Sunday which carries gusts to low-end advisory levels. Expect a wind shift to southerly by Monday with gusts again getting close to advisory caliber.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With water levels being quite elevated early this morning, a number of sites have pushed into or neared Minor, thus requiring Coastal Flood Advisories. A number of these advisories will drop off beyond the early morning high tide. With post-frontal northwesterlies overspreading the waters today, tidal anomalies should fall rather quickly.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ018.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ057.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ504.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ503.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ502-503-506.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.