Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stanardsville, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A very thin cirrus clouds remain prevalent across most of the region. However, the sun is filtering through pretty efficiently, thus temperatures remain on track this afternoon.
Current readings in the mid 70s should lend highs close to 80 for most in the next couple of hours. RH values have really dropped along the I-95 corridor this afternoon, with readings in the low 20s. Same can be said for the Potomac Highlands, where RH values around in the upper 20s to low 30s. However, The I-81 corridor hasn't dried out quite as much as anticipated, with RHs only in the mid 30s to low 40s thus far. In these really dry areas, if a fire were to get going in grass, leaves, etc., those fuels are going to be a good bit drier than the 10-hour fuels. However, winds aren't too concerning today, with occasional gusts up to 15 mph possible out of the SSE. I would be a bit more concerned if I felt these would be frequent to sustained, but just not seeing that today.

As the high pressure moves east to the coast later today and tonight, a gradual southerly flow will develop. Increasing low level humidity is expected tonight. Lows will drop down into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing across the Great Lakes region Friday. A developing warm front will meander into and across our region Friday before lifting northward Friday night into early Saturday. This warm front could spawn rain showers and a few thunderstorms Friday, mainly west of the US 15 corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms could spread east into the metro areas Friday afternoon into Friday night as the warm front lifts across and out of the region. High temperatures Friday will be middle to upper 70s with near 80 reading from the metros to the Chesapeake Bay and lower 70s west of the Shenandoah Valley. While cloud cover, showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder still linger Friday night, low temperatures Friday night will be milder with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

With a warm front leading the way of warm and more humid air, additional showers and thunderstorms could develop Saturday morning through midday behind this warm front and ahead of a strong cold front that is expected to extend southwest from the Great Lakes low pressure system. Given the amount of moisture and humidity and warmth ahead of the cold front and the actual lift from the surface front and mid-level energy, some of the thunderstorms around midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon could be strong with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Models seem to indicate that the cold front clears our region between mid- afternoon Saturday and early Saturday evening. Temperatures along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains could punch into the 80 to lower 80s realm, while the further west in direction and up in elevation could quickly be in the 70s, if not 60s, with frontal passage on Saturday. Saturday night's lows could be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Friday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure of Canadian origin will build in Sunday as upper level troughing moves to the east. Breezy and cooler conditions will prevail, although temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s are only a few degrees below normal. Favorable radiational cooling may develop Sunday night as the high builds overhead. However, frost/freeze concerns appear to be minimal where the growing season has started as dew points are forecast in the mid to upper 30s. A warming trend will start Monday as the high slides to the southeast.

Tuesday will feel a bit more like summer as a warm front lifts north and upper ridging builds overhead. Temperatures likely rise well into the 80s with dew points nearing 60. It appears any convective chances will be limited to northwestern parts of the CWA as remnant activity from the Ohio Valley moves in late in the day or overnight.

A cold front will approach Wednesday, bringing a higher (but not definite) chance of showers and thunderstorms to the entire forecast area. While wind fields will have a modest increase aloft, the threat for stronger storms is uncertain due to questions about frontal timing and available forcing and instability. Fewer areas may reach 80 as clouds and shower chances increase, but it will still be a warm day. The front will likely stall near or south of the area Thursday, resulting in a persisting chance of showers along with slightly cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will result in continued VFR conditions through tonight. Winds will remain relatively light this afternoon out of the south, generally AOB 10 knots. A few higher gusts up to 15 knots are also possible.

A warm front will approach the region ahead of a strengthening surface low to the west later tonight into Friday. Sub-VFR ceilings and VSBY restrictions from showers both become increasingly likely Friday evening into Friday night.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely as a cold front moves through the forecast area Saturday morning through the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease from northwest to southeast late Saturday afternoon with southerly winds ahead of the front shifting to northwesterly behind the frontal passage.

Gusty NW winds up to 30 kt are likely Sunday in the wake of a frontal passage. Winds will be lighter Monday into Tuesday with VFR conditions under high pressure.

MARINE
High pressure will continue to push eastward tonight. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift through the region later tonight into early Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected with light winds out of the S to SSE today into tonight.

As the warm front pushes through Friday, showers and near-SCA wind gusts are both possible, especially later in the day into the evening hours. SCAs may be needed for Friday afternoon, but confidence was too low at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms impact the waters on Saturday as a cold front moves across the forecast area. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Saturday. Winds shift from southerly ahead of the front to northwesterly behind the front Saturday evening.

Gusty northwest winds continue through Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Winds will lessen by Monday morning as high pressure moves overhead. Southerly winds may start increasing by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.