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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 805 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 18 seconds and S up to 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 18 seconds and S around 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 16 seconds and S around 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds and S up to 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 11 seconds and S around 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft and S 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ500 805 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
northwesterly winds generally continue to abate but small craft winds persist in the outer waters. Fresh to moderate winds through midweek, afterwards easing to become gentle to moderate and more northerly. Towards the late week, wave heights decrease. Moderate period (12-14 seconds) southerly swell persists through the week, alongside shorter period northwesterly swell (8-10 seconds). Longer period northwesterly swell moves into the waters towards Tuesday.

FXUS66 KMTR 022322 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 422 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 100 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Near normal temperatures today will increase to well above average Wednesday through Saturday as high pressure becomes the dominant feature.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

California is currently situated under a N-S meridional jet stream with a deep trough approaching the Rockies and high pressure over the NE Pacific. While this northerly flow is advecting cooler air, it's also keeping skies pretty clear and allowing for good day-time surface heating. Overall, the temperatures today will be near normal for this time of year. The marine layer was disrupted as the weather system passed this weekend, and has been confined to the immediate coast today. Light to gentle offshore winds this week should support this trend for the next several days. Without the typical cooling influence of the marine layer, coastal areas will begin see temperatures start to climb above normal. Temperatures will be roughly 5 degrees warmer on Tuesday with more warming to come later in the week.

Building high pressure overnight may support another round of fog Tue morning. Dew points will be similar and winds should be even lighter than this morning. With the missing marine layer, this isn't a slam dunk forecast, but a nocturnal inversion and good radiational cooling could support shallow valley fog. We'll be keeping an eye on the Sonoma Valley, Monterey Bay Area and the Salinas Valley.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The real warm-up begins on Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above normal on Wed and 10-15 degrees above normal from Thu through Fri. During this time, expect coastal areas to get into the high 70s to mid 80s with inland areas in the mid 80s to mid 90s.Thankfully clear skies, low humidity, and longer nights will allow decent cooling into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This is helping keep the heat risk level moderate. For those without air conditioning, this will be a good week to open the windows at night and close them during the day.

We made some broad and some specific edits to the forecast today.
After looking at multi-model consensus data, a group decision was made that the old forecast was not quite capturing the potential for coastal heating due to offshore winds keeping the marine layer over the water. There was a pretty big spread in the guidance for Thu-Sat and the broad scale forecast used the 75th percentile max temp from a combination of several deterministic and ensemble forecast systems. In addition, specific edits were made to the city of San Francisco, bumping the expected temperatures from the low 80s to the mid 80s on Thu and Fri. Widespread cooling is expected from Sun-Mon as the next long wave trough moves through.
This next system may bring another round of precipitation to the Bay Area on Columbus Day, but it's a little too early to get into specifics.

With warmer weather comes fire weather concerns. There does seem to be a period of moderate offshore winds in the North Bay's Vaca and Mayacamas Mountains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum relative humidities will be in the mid to upper 30s Tuesday and dry to the mid to upper 20s from Wednesday to Friday. As the center of the ridge builds, winds will be light later in the week.
The only day with the right combination of dry conditions and enough wind is Wednesday. Even then, the threat is marginal due to non-critical RH values and only moderate, short duration winds Wed morning.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR throughout the region with areas of a few/sct high clouds.
Winds remain breezy near coastal gaps and valleys but otherwise onshore winds are relatively moderate to light. Coastal gaps and velleys are expected to become light to moderate overnight with a return of moderate to breezy conditions tomorrow afternoon. The marine layer has compressed, therefore expect VFR to prevail for all terminals north of Monterey Bay, where CIG and visibility may become LIFR criteria. There may be a slight chance of fog and low cigs for KSTS, as some models suggested LIFR conditions overnight/early tomorrow morning, but had low confidence to include in TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions continue with breezy to moderate onshore winds. Winds are expected to become light overnight with a return of breezy conditions up to 12 knots tomorrow afternoon.
Expect VFR to prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the remainder of the day but stratus and low visibility is expected to return with MVFR ceilings tonight then lower overnight/early tomorrow morning creating LIFR conditions. Visbilities may get down to 1/2SM but had low confidence to include in TAF at this moment. Expect VFR to return near 17-18Z tomorrow morning with the return of moderate to breezy winds in the afternoon.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 422 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Northwesterly winds generally continue to abate, with fresh to moderate winds through midweek, afterwards easing to become gentle to moderate and more northerly. Towards the late week, wave heights decrease. Moderate period (12-14 seconds) southerly swell persists through the week, alongside shorter period northwesterly swell (8-10 seconds). Longer period northwesterly swell moves into the waters towards Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Record high data for this week:

Location Oct 4th Oct 5th Oct 6th ------------------------------------------------------------------ Santa Rosa 101 1920 103 1933 102 1930 Kentfield 99 1987 100 1987 97 1930 Napa 100 1987 101 1987 96 1930 Richmond 99 1987 99 1987 91 1996 Livermore 106 1980 100 1980 100 2014 San Francisco 100 1987 102 1987 94 1992 SFO 95 1987 99 1987 92 1992 Redwood City 101 1980 99 1987 99 1987 Half Moon Bay 87 1953 82 2013 87 1972 Oakland City 92 2014 96 1987 93 1976 Salinas 100 1987 105 1987 95 1972 King City 106 1944 105 1933 100 1996

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ575.

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Bodega Harbor entrance
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Mon -- 01:57 AM PDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:22 PM PDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:21 PM PDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bodega Harbor entrance, California, Tide feet

Point Reyes
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Mon -- 03:12 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:39 AM PDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:46 AM PDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:37 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:52 PM PDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:55 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:44 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Reyes, California Current, knots

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