Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carmet, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 1207 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 (This evening through Tuesday)

Visible satellite imagery is showing less cloud cover along the coast then previously thought. This is as the marine layer is mixing out thanks to southerly flow at the surface and more westerly/northwesterly aloft. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to those yesterday, upper 50s to lower 70s near the coast, 80s to upper 80s just inland away from the coast, and 90s to near 100 degrees (very isolated in nature) in the far interior.

With the marine layer forecast to deepen tonight ahead of an approaching mid/upper level trough, low clouds will spread back inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Coastal drizzle is also likely as we have seen the past few days during the late night and early morning hours on Tuesday.

Once low clouds dissipate across inland areas, temperatures will be some 5-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon in response to the trough aloft. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s inland and the upper 60s to the mid 70s along the Bayshore, with the coast remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

From previous forecaster: "Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across areas above and inland of the marine layer's influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 20- 35%, poor overnight recoveries of 25-40%, and localized gusts to 25 mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However, the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night."

LONG TERM
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 (Tuesday night through Sunday)

A slight warming trend is expected heading towards the upcoming weekend. Ensemble model cluster analysis does feature scenarios where troughing and ridging develop over the northwestern United States through the upcoming weekend. However, in terms of sensible weather, most of the impacts from any deviation in the weather pattern will be felt across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with muted impacts across central California. Although the exact details are still subject to variation, the current forecast sees temperatures across the inland valleys rising to the 80s and lower 90s, up to the upper 90s in the warmest locations.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. An upper-level shortwave trough will traverse across the region tonight. As a result, the 1,400 feet deep marine layer is expected to deepen and coastal drizzle can be expected. Tonight's forecast could be a case where ceilings come in low and then actually rise through the morning. That being said, high confidence in all terminals deteriorating to sub-VFR conditions tonight. While LVK only has a 20% chance, a deeper marine layer should help it getting there.
Smoke from wildfires burning in Northern California will likely filter into the region and reduce slight range visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow. Westerly flow will return once the sea breeze kicks in this afternoon. High confidence in sub-VFR ceilings returning tonight, likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...The approach still has some low stratus this morning, but that should evaporate very quickly. Low stratus clouds will begin to filter in through the Golden Gate Gap by 00Z with visuals likely being impacted through 18Z Tuesday.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and IFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in LIFR ceilings returning to both terminals tonight.

MARINE
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Localized hazardous marine conditions in the form of strong northerly breezes and very rough seas will be present through tomorrow for the northern outer waters. Aside from that, a gentle to moderate breeze with moderate to rough seas will prevail through Friday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.