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FXUS63 KLMK 101445 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 945 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Forecast Update
Issued at 945 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A broad stratus deck/shield is slowly sinking southeast this morning across southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky. These clouds should overspread the entire region within the next few hours. The combination of clouds and strong cold air advection behind a cold front will keep temperatures in the 30s for most of the day, with a brief peak into the low 40s for some spots. Main update to the forecast was to tweak the sky cover based on latest satellite and model trends, as well as nudging temperatures down a degree or two based due to the expected, extensive cloud cover. Rest of forecast remains on track.

Short Term
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

============================================================= Key Messages:

* Much colder conditions across the region today.

* Scattered snow flurries this evening, mainly east of I-65.
=============================================================

Early morning surface analysis shows a cold front moving through eastern Kentucky. Mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region.
An impressive temperature gradient was noted in the data this morning. Temperatures west of I-65 were in the upper 30s to around 40, while readings east of I-65 were in the mid-upper 40s. Area radars were generally quiet, though there were some light returns over our far SE area, down in the Lake Cumberland area where some light rain showers are probably still ongoing. For the remainder of the overnight period, no significant weather is expected. Some light rain showers will continue to be possible over our extreme far eastern/southeastern sections for the next few hours until drier air moves in from the west. Temperatures will continue to fall across the area, with lows by sunrise ranging from the low-mid 30s west of I-65 to the mid-upper 30s in areas east of I-65.

For today, cloudy skies are expected across the region as strong cold advection continues. Brisk northwest winds will keep temperatures from rising too much with afternoon readings only topping out in the upper 30s to the very low 40s. Model soundings do show steepening lapse rates developing this afternoon and we may be able to squeeze out some snow flurries across our eastern sections.

For this evening and into the overnight period, lapse rates will still be rather steep and enough low-level moisture remaining in the lower PBL will likely keep producing some scattered flurries mainly over the Bluegrass region of central KY. Will keep a mention of flurries in the forecast into the wee hours of the overnight period before additional drier air coming into the region should shut down flurry production. Clouds will scour out a bit more in areas west of I-65, but mostly cloudy conditions look likely across the east.
Overnight lows will dip into the lower 20s across our northwest, with mid 20s across the rest of the forecast area.

Long Term
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

================================================================ Key Messages

- Dry and near-normal temperatures most of next week

- Low confidence chance for rain next weekend

================================================================

The extended forecast period looks relatively quiet across the region with no significant weather chances in the forecast until next weekend. Forecast confidence is high through the end of the coming week, decreasing toward the end of the extended range next weekend.

On Monday, the upper level trough axis across the eastern one-third of the CONUS will eject northeastward into the North Atlantic Ocean as zonal flow moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface high pressure will slide just to the south of the area Monday into Monday night, with lingering cloud cover Monday morning east of I-65 expected to dissipate by early afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be coldest on Monday, only topping out in the low-to-mid 40s.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a northern stream trough will slide across the upper Great Lakes and central Ontario, remaining out of phase with the subtropical jet and failing to amplify southward. As a result, an associated sfc cold front will struggle to make enough southward progress to have any impact on our region outside of a few extra clouds Tuesday night into Wednesday. SW winds ahead of the front on Tuesday will encourage modest warm advection, with highs returning to near or slightly above normal for Tuesday afternoon.
Behind the washed out cold front, sfc high pressure will pass north of the area for Wednesday into Thursday, with northerly and then northeasterly low-level flow knocking temperatures down a few degrees.

By Friday into next weekend, our attention will once again shift to the west as a cutoff upper low across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico ejects eastward. The main forecast uncertainty revolves around if/when this cutoff low phases with a passing northern stream trough, helping to amplify the overall pattern and potentially producing a disturbance which would bring precipitation chances back to the region. At this time, there is greater consistency in the GEFS solutions which show a delayed phasing, resulting in sfc low development to our south and east next weekend and keeping things pretty dry across Kentucky and Indiana.
Yesterday's 12Z Euro solution showing earlier phasing and a system moving across our area appears to be the outlier at this time, with the 00Z Euro and EPS ensembles coming more into line with the drier GFS/GEFS solutions. At this time, would lean toward next weekend remaining fairly dry, though will keep a slight chance PoP in to account for residual wetter solutions in the ensembles. Would expect confidence to remain relatively low with regard to this system until mid-week when the two disturbances can be sampled by more dense observing networks across North America.

Aviation
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

For the upcoming TAF period, low cloudiness is expected at the terminals through the period. Cigs today look to start off in the low end of the VFR range but then drop into the MVFR range later this morning as lower clouds move into the region from the northwest. Winds through the period will be out of the northwest at 5-8kts. A few snow flurries will be possible over at KLEX later this afternoon and evening but will not affect aviation. MVFR cigs are likely to hang on into tonight with some improvement by Monday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.

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