SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Southwest flow will set in over our area aloft today, ahead of an upper-level trough out to our west. Though there will be a bit less ambient moisture today, coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase thanks to the better shear environment. Storms will form over the higher terrain this afternoon, pushing east onto the plains thanks to the stronger steering flow in place. A few stronger storms are possible, though severe weather is not likely at this time due to a general lack of good instability. Models are currently only showing a few hundred J/kg of CAPE over the plains this afternoon. Main hazards with storms will be gusty outflow winds around 40-45 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. If storms linger over burn scars or other vulnerable areas, flash flooding could occur. There is a marginal severe outlook that clips parts of eastern El Paso and northern Kiowa County, so a few low-end severe storms cannot be ruled out entirely near the Palmer Divide. High temperatures today will be near or above normal, with 90s over the plains and low-80s over the valleys. Precipitation in the area should wane by about midnight tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

High pressure will begin to build into the area from the south on Sunday, as breezy west winds set in aloft. This, alongside quickly decreasing moisture, will set the stage for a warmer and drier pattern as we move towards next week. Spotty critical fire weather conditions will be present over portions of the area, specifically along the Upper Arkansas River Valley, but fuels appear to green to warrant any needs for highlights at this time. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible in the afternoon over the mountains, but coverage will be very low and isolated in nature.

Models are now more consistent with showing an upper ridge building in towards the middle of next week. As a result, temperatures across the area will increase, exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon over most of the eastern plains. Meanwhile, dry air remains in place and precip chances will generally remain low outside of some isolated showers over the higher terrain. At this time, our hottest days appear to be Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures approaching Heat Advisory criteria.

Around mid-week, models show a shortwave trough moving through along with a weak frontal boundary. This should serve to knock high temperatures down a few degrees while increasing POPs for the latter half of the work week. Though even behind that boundary, NBM high temperatures over the plains are still firmly in the mid-high 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of all three TAF sites this afternoon and evening, starting after around 20Z. Showers will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds to around 30-35 knots. Additionally, if any showers pass over a terminal, briefly moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along with MVFR conditions. Finally, models indicate a lower-end chance for some fog at KALS overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.