Florence, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, CO

June 16, 2024 10:16 PM MDT (04:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM
Moonrise 2:26 PM   Moonset 1:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, CO
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Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 162328 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 528 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions with low chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms are once again expected on Monday.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support critical fire weather conditions again on Monday. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

- Cold front moves in Tuesday, leading to some uncertainty with timing. Warm temperatures, fire weather, and incoming precipitation are on the table.

- Daily showers and storms expected mid-late week as our next system moves through, starting on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Hot conditions are in place this afternoon with many locations across the plains currently in the upper 90s to around 100. Given sunny to partly cloudy skies and increasing south southwest winds, anticipate the highest temps to still rise to around 105 degrees this afternoon and with no changes made to the Heat Advisory in place. With daytime mixing and the increasing surface winds/gusts, have seen dew points really mix out today. RH values will continue to fall well below 15 percent and with the stronger winds, will see critical fire weather conditions persist through early this evening, once again for areas where fuels are critical. Latest radar imagery is showing some isolated precip development across southeast Baca county right along the moisture/instability axis. Can't rule out a stronger storm in this location this afternoon with strong gusty winds the main hazards with any stronger development.

Similar setup on Monday with deep west southwest flow in place.
700mb temps don't look to be as high on Monday, but still expect another hot, dry, and windy day. Highest temps will be in the upper 90s to low 100s across the plains on Monday, and given the slightly lower temps, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory at this time and will later shifts reassess the need. Additional drying on Monday will support another day with low RH values and as southwest winds/gusts ramp up once again, will see critical fire weather conditions develop. Did upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. Moisture and instability axis wants to linger right along the CO/KS border on Monday with similar isolated shower and thunderstorm development possible in the afternoon. While confidence is low, CAMs do show some development across the eastern plains, and so have added some slight chance pops to the forecast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tuesday...

An upper-level trough will continue pushing into our region from the northwest, with a tightening pressure gradient and increasing southwesterly flow aloft for the first part of Tuesday. Meanwhile, the surface winds across the eastern plains will be from the south- southeast. High temperatures and critical fire weather conditions will largely depend on the speed of the incoming cold front, currently slated to move across the area a bit later in the day.
Timing is still our biggest challenge with Tuesday's overall forecast, with the NAM bringing the front in quickly mid-morning while the GFS waits until evening. The NBM is leaning a bit later on in the day as well, with the slower solutions leading to warmer highs and increased chances for critical fire weather conditions out ahead of the front. Current forecast has highs in the 90s over the plains and 80s across the higher terrain and valleys. Precipitation chances are not particularly high or widespread at the moment, once again largely dependent on the behavior of the front. Models have consistently shown some showers over Pikes Peak due to upsloping, as well as some showers and storms over the far eastern plains and into Kansas where the moisture tap is stronger and more consistent, along with a stronger pressure gradient. Any precipitation in those areas should start late-afternoon into early evening and last into the overnight hours.

Wednesday-Thursday...

The trough moves in on Wednesday, with post-frontal easterly upslope across the plains and continued shower activity east of the border into the morning hours. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front as well, with 70s-80s across the area along with increased cloud cover. Thanks to the passing system and easterly flow, showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours, first forming over the mountains before pushing east through the remainder of the day. At this time, instability and shear parameters don't appear supportive of widespread severe weather, but a few stronger storms over the plains are well within possibility.

A disorganized upper ridge will begin to build in on Thursday, with embedded wave energy allowing for another active day in terms of showers and storms along with warming temperatures. Warmer temperatures lead to some increase CAPE across the area, with the chance for stronger storms increasing, but overall shear appears marginal and not overly supportive of severe convection. However, due to the abundant moisture in place, both Wednesday and Thursday will see the potential for heavy rain from slow-moving storms, leading to more flooding concerns.

Friday Onwards...

Model solutions diverge near the end of the week, but hint at a new upper trough moving in from the west coast. Embedded energy within the flow and residual moisture, coupled with breezy west-southwest flow aloft, could lead to continued shower and thunderstorms development each day. Coverage, intensity, and chances for severe weather will depend on the behavior of the upper level pattern as we get closer to date. Additionally, temperatures will warm once again, with highs climbing into the mid-90s across the plains by Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 526 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will become light overnight, before s-sw winds increase again Mon morning 16z-18z.
After 18z Mon, winds could gust 25-30 kts, strongest at KALS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-221- 223>227-232-233-237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-221- 223>227-232-233-237.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ077-083>086- 089-093-097-098.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFCS28 sm21 minNNW 1210 smClear77°F50°F39%29.75
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Pueblo, CO,




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