Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, CO
December 2, 2023 6:14 PM MST (01:14 UTC)
Sunrise 6:58AM Sunset 4:41PM Moonrise 9:38PM Moonset 11:37AM
Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 022124 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 224 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
Key messages...
- Becoming very windy mtns and east slope of mtns tonight and lasting through tomorrow.
- Winds exceeding high wind warning criteria likely east slopes Ramparts and Pike Peak, with warning also issued for Sangres, Wets, Wet mtn valley region and Huerfano county.
- Upgraded to winter storm warnings for central mtns.
Currently...
Snow continues to fall across the central mtns per web cams. winds have ramped up across a good part of the region as many areas of the mtns are in the 30 to 50 knt range with 30 to 40 knts plains. Given the downslope component, temps are relatively mild with readings around 50F parts of the plains with 40s up in El Paso county. Temps were in the 30s valleys while higher mtns were in the single digits to negative single digits.
Overview...
An active 24 hours is in store for the forecast area. Main impacts will be winds nearly all areas and heavy snow over the central mtns.
It appears from web cams that some hefty snowfall amounts have already occurred in the c mtns and guidance is indicating more heavy wind driven snow will occur mainly later tonight and tomorrow morning. The other concern will be strong winds developing over a good part of the area. Some of these winds will reach high wind criteria, especially east slopes of Ramparts and Pikes Peak, and all of the Sangres, Wets, Wet mtn valley and Huerfano county. This is all do to a strong jet pushing southwest in the NW flow aloft
Tonight...
Main concern tonight will be winds and snow. Although winds are going to pick up over all of the higher terrain, the main concern will be over the east slopes of the rampart range/Pikes Peak this evening and lasting into tomorrow morning. A narrow band of potentially damaging winds is expected on the east slopes and a high wind warning has been issued for this area. Late tonight, the southern mtn region will get into the action as winds are expected to reach high wind warning criteria, especially on the WEST side of the Wet mtn valley. As for the rest of the southern mtns, probabilities are not as high to hit MTN HIGH WIND WARING criteria, but the threat is threat to warrant a watch.
Latest guidance has ramped up snowfall for the central mtns and have upgraded the central mtns to a winter storm waring. 10 to 20 inches of snow is likely through tomorrow. The higher valleys of Lake county will likely see an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Tomorrow...
Damaging wind threat of the Pikes Peak region should diminish, although strong winds will continue and actually become more widespread during the morning hours.
The damaging wind threat for the s mtns, Wet Mtn valley and Huerfano county will increase, especially during the morning daylight hours, as the jet punches through and the best mtns wave parameters are in place. It should be noted that the west side of the Wet Mtn valley may see damaging winds while the east side of the valley may not see all that much strong wind.
Heavy snow will continue over the c mtns into late morning, with snow then decreasing. it will remain windy over the higher terrain.
A cold front will push down the plains from late morning into the afternoon hours, with the winds shifting to a more northerly component, with winds ramping down asa the afternoon progresses over the lower elevations.
Some snow showers will be possible over the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region from mid morning to early afternoon tomorrow.
\/Hodanish
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry and warm for much of next week.
- Medium to high (40-79%) confidence in a storm system impacting the area during the end of the work week and into the weekend.
Monday - Thursday: For much of the upcoming week, a quiet stretch of weather is in store for southern Colorado. Synoptically, an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will build and expand over the region. This feature will bring an increase in descent to the area, and given that, dry conditions are expected for southern Colorado. Looking at temperatures, given the strong ridge, and at least modest downsloping winds at times, there is very high (80- 100%) confidence that much of the area will be 10-20°F above seasonal values, which both deterministic and ensemble model guidance strongly support.
Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the weekend, the start of a pattern change is expected to take place. A troughing pattern will begin to develop across the western US and start to push over the region throughout this period. There is still some timing differences in the ensemble model guidance, but overall, the model guidance begins to push the troughing eastward during the Friday period. As this system pushes towards and over the area, forcing and support will increase in response, and precipitation chances will become heightened from west to east, particularly along the mountains. With that all said though, timing is not the only detail that still needs to be ironed out. Uncertainty exits in the location, strength, and overall structure (think open wave vs cut- off low) of the system, all of which will play big roles in how precipitation, and ultimately any impacts, will materialize. Despite some uncertainties, general consensus from ensemble model guidance is leading to at least medium to high (40-79%) confidence in this overall troughing pattern evolution. As for temperatures, Friday will be the warmest day as downsloping westerly to southwesterly winds materialize, leading to another day where temperatures will be around 10°F above seasonal values. Then Saturday will be much different, as the system shoves a cold front southward, dropping temperatures across southern Colorado.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
KCOS
Low Level wind shear is likely for the first 12-15 hours of this forecast as a mountain wave is near certain to set up along the east slopes of the Pike Peak. The wave should push off tomorrow with the LLWS threat coming to an end. However, gusty NW winds are likely in the morning, slowly decreasing and becoming northerly later in the afternoon.
We may see some passing snow showers from mid morning tomorrow to early afternoon, which could cause MVFR conditions for a brief while.
KPUB...
Winds decreasing this evening with winds once again picking up tomorrow morning. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours.
KALS...
Gusty NW winds early this evening and tomorrow late morning through afternoon, Otherwise VFR next 24hours.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ059.
High Wind Watch from 2 AM MST Sunday through Sunday afternoon for COZ072>075-078>080-087.
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for COZ081-082-084.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 224 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
Key messages...
- Becoming very windy mtns and east slope of mtns tonight and lasting through tomorrow.
- Winds exceeding high wind warning criteria likely east slopes Ramparts and Pike Peak, with warning also issued for Sangres, Wets, Wet mtn valley region and Huerfano county.
- Upgraded to winter storm warnings for central mtns.
Currently...
Snow continues to fall across the central mtns per web cams. winds have ramped up across a good part of the region as many areas of the mtns are in the 30 to 50 knt range with 30 to 40 knts plains. Given the downslope component, temps are relatively mild with readings around 50F parts of the plains with 40s up in El Paso county. Temps were in the 30s valleys while higher mtns were in the single digits to negative single digits.
Overview...
An active 24 hours is in store for the forecast area. Main impacts will be winds nearly all areas and heavy snow over the central mtns.
It appears from web cams that some hefty snowfall amounts have already occurred in the c mtns and guidance is indicating more heavy wind driven snow will occur mainly later tonight and tomorrow morning. The other concern will be strong winds developing over a good part of the area. Some of these winds will reach high wind criteria, especially east slopes of Ramparts and Pikes Peak, and all of the Sangres, Wets, Wet mtn valley and Huerfano county. This is all do to a strong jet pushing southwest in the NW flow aloft
Tonight...
Main concern tonight will be winds and snow. Although winds are going to pick up over all of the higher terrain, the main concern will be over the east slopes of the rampart range/Pikes Peak this evening and lasting into tomorrow morning. A narrow band of potentially damaging winds is expected on the east slopes and a high wind warning has been issued for this area. Late tonight, the southern mtn region will get into the action as winds are expected to reach high wind warning criteria, especially on the WEST side of the Wet mtn valley. As for the rest of the southern mtns, probabilities are not as high to hit MTN HIGH WIND WARING criteria, but the threat is threat to warrant a watch.
Latest guidance has ramped up snowfall for the central mtns and have upgraded the central mtns to a winter storm waring. 10 to 20 inches of snow is likely through tomorrow. The higher valleys of Lake county will likely see an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Tomorrow...
Damaging wind threat of the Pikes Peak region should diminish, although strong winds will continue and actually become more widespread during the morning hours.
The damaging wind threat for the s mtns, Wet Mtn valley and Huerfano county will increase, especially during the morning daylight hours, as the jet punches through and the best mtns wave parameters are in place. It should be noted that the west side of the Wet Mtn valley may see damaging winds while the east side of the valley may not see all that much strong wind.
Heavy snow will continue over the c mtns into late morning, with snow then decreasing. it will remain windy over the higher terrain.
A cold front will push down the plains from late morning into the afternoon hours, with the winds shifting to a more northerly component, with winds ramping down asa the afternoon progresses over the lower elevations.
Some snow showers will be possible over the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region from mid morning to early afternoon tomorrow.
\/Hodanish
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry and warm for much of next week.
- Medium to high (40-79%) confidence in a storm system impacting the area during the end of the work week and into the weekend.
Monday - Thursday: For much of the upcoming week, a quiet stretch of weather is in store for southern Colorado. Synoptically, an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will build and expand over the region. This feature will bring an increase in descent to the area, and given that, dry conditions are expected for southern Colorado. Looking at temperatures, given the strong ridge, and at least modest downsloping winds at times, there is very high (80- 100%) confidence that much of the area will be 10-20°F above seasonal values, which both deterministic and ensemble model guidance strongly support.
Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the weekend, the start of a pattern change is expected to take place. A troughing pattern will begin to develop across the western US and start to push over the region throughout this period. There is still some timing differences in the ensemble model guidance, but overall, the model guidance begins to push the troughing eastward during the Friday period. As this system pushes towards and over the area, forcing and support will increase in response, and precipitation chances will become heightened from west to east, particularly along the mountains. With that all said though, timing is not the only detail that still needs to be ironed out. Uncertainty exits in the location, strength, and overall structure (think open wave vs cut- off low) of the system, all of which will play big roles in how precipitation, and ultimately any impacts, will materialize. Despite some uncertainties, general consensus from ensemble model guidance is leading to at least medium to high (40-79%) confidence in this overall troughing pattern evolution. As for temperatures, Friday will be the warmest day as downsloping westerly to southwesterly winds materialize, leading to another day where temperatures will be around 10°F above seasonal values. Then Saturday will be much different, as the system shoves a cold front southward, dropping temperatures across southern Colorado.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
KCOS
Low Level wind shear is likely for the first 12-15 hours of this forecast as a mountain wave is near certain to set up along the east slopes of the Pike Peak. The wave should push off tomorrow with the LLWS threat coming to an end. However, gusty NW winds are likely in the morning, slowly decreasing and becoming northerly later in the afternoon.
We may see some passing snow showers from mid morning tomorrow to early afternoon, which could cause MVFR conditions for a brief while.
KPUB...
Winds decreasing this evening with winds once again picking up tomorrow morning. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours.
KALS...
Gusty NW winds early this evening and tomorrow late morning through afternoon, Otherwise VFR next 24hours.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ059.
High Wind Watch from 2 AM MST Sunday through Sunday afternoon for COZ072>075-078>080-087.
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for COZ081-082-084.
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Airport Reports
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Pueblo, CO,
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