Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, CO
May 14, 2024 5:09 AM MDT (11:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:41 AM Moonset 12:43 AM |
FXUS65 KPUB 140919 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 319 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through mid evening for much of south central and southeast Colorado.
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with wind gusts up to 60 mph the main hazard.
- Scattered showers are expected through Wednesday afternoon, with snow along the mountains and rain and thunderstorms elsewhere.
- A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe across the plains Wednesday afternoon, with the greatest hazards being strong winds and hail.
- Showers continue Thursday, especially along the mountains, and finally dissipate during the evening and overnight hours.
- Quieter weather expected for the end of the week and through the weekend, with active weather returning for the start of next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Generally quiet across the area this morning, though some weak returns continue to slide southeast through central Colorado. Any precip has remained relatively light with Leadville recently reporting some light rain, and expect that to continue through the morning hours. Fairly tight vorticity maxima to the north will shift east today, as we become more westerly aloft in advance of a deeper trough to the northwest. This westerly flow will allow some weak impulses to push overhead today, along with lee troughing across the plains. In this setup should see precip development by midday and early afternoon, with coverage and intensity increasing during the afternoon hours. Under this westerly flow and under initial clearer skies, will see a warming air mass support above normal temperatures today, with highest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the southeast plains.
The overall risk of widespread severe weather is low today, however, do think a few strong to severe storms will be possible over much of southern Colorado. Once again, shower and thunderstorm development increases through the afternoon hours, as increasing mid level support and surface low development likely support a few more robust storms today. CAPE looks to stay generally under 500 j/kg, and while bulk shear values don't appear overly high. That being said, will see deep mixing and steep low/mid level lapse rates support the risk of wind gusts up to 60 mph with any strong/severe storm. The risk of large hail is lower today, however, where higher focus and better moisture convergence occur, could see a storm or two capable of producing hail to the size of quarters develop. At this time, highest chances for this to occur look to be along and east of an Arlington to Lamar line. Showers and storms will likely linger into the evening time frame, but would expect the risk of any stronger development to quickly diminish.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Wednesday: Midweek will bring active and stormy weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. A messy pattern will start to materialize Wednesday as two waves begin to interact, though the primary influence Wednesday will be from one of these waves as it approaches from the northwest. As this wave pushes towards and over the region throughout the day, flow and ascent will increase, with orographic forcing also surging during the day. Along with that, this wave will shove a cold front southward during the afternoon, which will allow for areas of localized enhanced surface forcing across the plains, and particularly prominent eastern terrain features. With the uptick in forcing across the area, and increasing instability, scattered showers are expected to blossom across the region during the late morning and throughout the afternoon. Most showers will initiate along the mountains, and be shoved eastward off the terrain given the increasing westerly flow. Snow is anticipated along the highest peaks of the mountains, with rain showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe across the eastern plains given modest effective shear around 30 knots, SBCAPE ranging around 500-1000 J/kg, and DCAPE ranging around 700-1000 J/kg. The greatest hazards from any stronger storms would be strong wind gusts and hail. There is at least medium to high confidence (40-79%) of strong winds gusts to around 50 mph given agreement between high-res ensemble model guidance. Along with that, some of the more organized thunderstorms across the plains will have the potential to produce heavy rain, given PW values hovering around 0.75 inches most of the day. With all of that said, as instability starts to wane during the evening hours, showers over the area will weaken and lessen in coverage, with isolated to widely scattered showers persisting overnight given the dynamic forcing over the region. Looking at temperatures, a cool down is anticipated for the area. Given the cold front passage, and increasingly cloudy skies, much of south central and southeastern Colorado will drop to around and slightly below seasonal temperatures.
Thursday: For Thursday, active and wet weather continues. The aforementioned interaction between the two systems will continue as they phase to the south of the region. Despite the main phase taking place south of Colorado, broad and dynamic forcing will continue across south central and southeastern Colorado. This forcing, in combination with moisture still in place, will allow for showers to persist through most of the day, with the greatest increase in showers during the afternoon as instability once again rises. With all of that said, the highest coverage of showers will be along the mountains, where forcing will be strongest and more focused, especially along the southeast mountains. Finally though, as this chaotic pattern treks to the east during the evening and overnight hours, showers will weaken and dissipate across the area. As for temperatures, another cool May day is anticipated. Given the unsettled conditions, much of the area will remain near to below seasonal temperatures for mid May.
Friday - Monday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, quieter weather is expected to prevail, with an uptick in active weather for the start of next week. Behind the exiting midweek storm, overall more ridging and zonal flow is anticipated to develop. Given the lack of major forcing with this flow pattern, mostly dry conditions are expected, with the exception being isolated showers along the mountains. There is potential for a shortwave to be ejected across the area during the end of the weekend, but there is disagreement between model guidance, including ensemble model guidance, so details about this feature are as clear as mud at the moment. If it were to track over the area, chances for showers would increase for much of the region. Then heading into the start of next week, model guidance is in decent agreement about more appreciable troughing pattern developing, which would bring greater chances for precipitation to south central and southeastern Colorado, particularly for the mountains. Temperatures during this period will quickly warm given the pattern in place, with much of the area warming to above seasonal values.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Latest radar imagery is showing some weak returns moving mainly around COS early this morning. While some light rain has been observed in some locations, think all of the terminals will be dry with VFR conditions through the morning hours. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm development is likely today and while that is the case, confidence is still lower on if any storm directly impacts the terminals. Have opted to leave the VCSH for ALS and PUB, but did include a small window of -tsra for COS. There does look to be better focus for thunderstorm development in this location. Under the strongest storm this afternoon, could see vis easily fall to the 1- 3sm range along with strong and erratic winds. Outside of these thunderstorm, expect winds to be on the lighter side and while VFR conditions prevail.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 319 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through mid evening for much of south central and southeast Colorado.
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with wind gusts up to 60 mph the main hazard.
- Scattered showers are expected through Wednesday afternoon, with snow along the mountains and rain and thunderstorms elsewhere.
- A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe across the plains Wednesday afternoon, with the greatest hazards being strong winds and hail.
- Showers continue Thursday, especially along the mountains, and finally dissipate during the evening and overnight hours.
- Quieter weather expected for the end of the week and through the weekend, with active weather returning for the start of next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Generally quiet across the area this morning, though some weak returns continue to slide southeast through central Colorado. Any precip has remained relatively light with Leadville recently reporting some light rain, and expect that to continue through the morning hours. Fairly tight vorticity maxima to the north will shift east today, as we become more westerly aloft in advance of a deeper trough to the northwest. This westerly flow will allow some weak impulses to push overhead today, along with lee troughing across the plains. In this setup should see precip development by midday and early afternoon, with coverage and intensity increasing during the afternoon hours. Under this westerly flow and under initial clearer skies, will see a warming air mass support above normal temperatures today, with highest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the southeast plains.
The overall risk of widespread severe weather is low today, however, do think a few strong to severe storms will be possible over much of southern Colorado. Once again, shower and thunderstorm development increases through the afternoon hours, as increasing mid level support and surface low development likely support a few more robust storms today. CAPE looks to stay generally under 500 j/kg, and while bulk shear values don't appear overly high. That being said, will see deep mixing and steep low/mid level lapse rates support the risk of wind gusts up to 60 mph with any strong/severe storm. The risk of large hail is lower today, however, where higher focus and better moisture convergence occur, could see a storm or two capable of producing hail to the size of quarters develop. At this time, highest chances for this to occur look to be along and east of an Arlington to Lamar line. Showers and storms will likely linger into the evening time frame, but would expect the risk of any stronger development to quickly diminish.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Wednesday: Midweek will bring active and stormy weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. A messy pattern will start to materialize Wednesday as two waves begin to interact, though the primary influence Wednesday will be from one of these waves as it approaches from the northwest. As this wave pushes towards and over the region throughout the day, flow and ascent will increase, with orographic forcing also surging during the day. Along with that, this wave will shove a cold front southward during the afternoon, which will allow for areas of localized enhanced surface forcing across the plains, and particularly prominent eastern terrain features. With the uptick in forcing across the area, and increasing instability, scattered showers are expected to blossom across the region during the late morning and throughout the afternoon. Most showers will initiate along the mountains, and be shoved eastward off the terrain given the increasing westerly flow. Snow is anticipated along the highest peaks of the mountains, with rain showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe across the eastern plains given modest effective shear around 30 knots, SBCAPE ranging around 500-1000 J/kg, and DCAPE ranging around 700-1000 J/kg. The greatest hazards from any stronger storms would be strong wind gusts and hail. There is at least medium to high confidence (40-79%) of strong winds gusts to around 50 mph given agreement between high-res ensemble model guidance. Along with that, some of the more organized thunderstorms across the plains will have the potential to produce heavy rain, given PW values hovering around 0.75 inches most of the day. With all of that said, as instability starts to wane during the evening hours, showers over the area will weaken and lessen in coverage, with isolated to widely scattered showers persisting overnight given the dynamic forcing over the region. Looking at temperatures, a cool down is anticipated for the area. Given the cold front passage, and increasingly cloudy skies, much of south central and southeastern Colorado will drop to around and slightly below seasonal temperatures.
Thursday: For Thursday, active and wet weather continues. The aforementioned interaction between the two systems will continue as they phase to the south of the region. Despite the main phase taking place south of Colorado, broad and dynamic forcing will continue across south central and southeastern Colorado. This forcing, in combination with moisture still in place, will allow for showers to persist through most of the day, with the greatest increase in showers during the afternoon as instability once again rises. With all of that said, the highest coverage of showers will be along the mountains, where forcing will be strongest and more focused, especially along the southeast mountains. Finally though, as this chaotic pattern treks to the east during the evening and overnight hours, showers will weaken and dissipate across the area. As for temperatures, another cool May day is anticipated. Given the unsettled conditions, much of the area will remain near to below seasonal temperatures for mid May.
Friday - Monday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, quieter weather is expected to prevail, with an uptick in active weather for the start of next week. Behind the exiting midweek storm, overall more ridging and zonal flow is anticipated to develop. Given the lack of major forcing with this flow pattern, mostly dry conditions are expected, with the exception being isolated showers along the mountains. There is potential for a shortwave to be ejected across the area during the end of the weekend, but there is disagreement between model guidance, including ensemble model guidance, so details about this feature are as clear as mud at the moment. If it were to track over the area, chances for showers would increase for much of the region. Then heading into the start of next week, model guidance is in decent agreement about more appreciable troughing pattern developing, which would bring greater chances for precipitation to south central and southeastern Colorado, particularly for the mountains. Temperatures during this period will quickly warm given the pattern in place, with much of the area warming to above seasonal values.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Latest radar imagery is showing some weak returns moving mainly around COS early this morning. While some light rain has been observed in some locations, think all of the terminals will be dry with VFR conditions through the morning hours. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm development is likely today and while that is the case, confidence is still lower on if any storm directly impacts the terminals. Have opted to leave the VCSH for ALS and PUB, but did include a small window of -tsra for COS. There does look to be better focus for thunderstorm development in this location. Under the strongest storm this afternoon, could see vis easily fall to the 1- 3sm range along with strong and erratic winds. Outside of these thunderstorm, expect winds to be on the lighter side and while VFR conditions prevail.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Pueblo, CO,
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