Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elliott, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 810 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Showers arrive late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Remaining warm Sunday and becoming breezy in the afternoon.

GOES water vapor channels show an upper trough lifting across the Northeast this afternoon, with another upper trough over the Great Lakes. This has resulted in quasi-zonal flow across the Mid-Atlantic, which is allowing surface high pressure to slide relatively quickly off the Southeast coast. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken tonight as a warm front approaches from the SW. This warm front, associated with the next system will move into the area later tonight, passing through the area from SW-NE Sunday morning. With this, rain chances will increase overnight to 60-70%, especially in the E, and 30-50% W of the I-95 corridor. There is a strong mid- level theta-e gradient along with negative EPV, so a slight chc of thunder has been maintained despite little to no instability.
Rainfall amounts range from less than 0.1" W to 0.25-0.5" E.
Overnight lows will be warmer than average in the middle to upper 40s in the Piedmont, lower 50s inland and the eastern shore, and mid 50s in SE VA/NE NC.

Low pressure tracks NE across the Great Lakes Sunday, which will allow the warm front to lift N of the region. A lull in rainfall is expected by the afternoon with some partial clearing possible. High temperatures will rise into the lower 70s for areas NW and mid 70s for areas SE (upper 60s on the eastern shore). Some upper 70s are possible near the Albemarle Sound.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 335 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Sharply colder temperatures usher in behind a strong cold front beginning Monday with a hard freeze likely Monday night.

A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. Isolated to scattered showers are expected with this front, arriving from the W late Sunday afternoon, then moving E through the overnight hours, and especially towards the coast overnight Sunday night. Given the strong kinematics in place, there is a slight chance of thunder Sunday night with front. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe weather ahead of the front, although this seems to be generous, as instability remains rather weak despite strong shear. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s late Sunday night.

A significant pattern change will leave Monday in a much colder Canadian airmass. A strong upper level trough will move into the eastern half of the CONUS. Temperatures Monday will only reach the lower 50s (despite the abundance of sunshine).
Overnight a hard freeze is likely, with lows in the upper 20 for most and lower 30s along the coast and eastern shore. The 08/12z ensemble runs continue to hint towards a light rain/snow mix or a few flurries possible Monday night into very early Tuesday with the upper level system, but any precipitation will have to overcome a very dry sub-cloud layer. Confidence remains low at this time. Chilly dry and breezy Tuesday with a Canadian airmass remaining over the region. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 335 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and moderate temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

The strong upper level trough that will bring the chilly Canadian airmass will begin dampening later Tuesday, with the trough lifting away from the area causing a stark contrast in temperatures between Tuesday and Wednesday. Seasonal temperatures will return for mid to late week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Dry weather will persist into late week as surface high pressure influences the area. A dry cold front may clip the area Wednesday night into Thursday, which potentially could result in rather dry dewpoints Thursday.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1250 AM EST Sunday...

A warm front is lifting north through the region early this morning, currently near the southern terminals. While all terminals are currently VFR, degraded conditions will begin within the next few hours as the front continues to lift north. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible early this morning. CIGs will begin to decline to MVFR at RIC/ECG/ORF/PHF around 08z and around 10z at SBY, and then quickly to IFR around 11z (some local LIFR is possible). Decreased VIS is expected with heavier showers this morning. As the front lifts further north late this morning, CIGs will increase rather rapidly from IFR to VFR. VFR conditions should return by 18z for most sites. Behind the front, winds will become SSW around 10 kt.

Outlook: A cold front will move through the area late tonight bringing a slight chance of showers with a few tstms possible, especially in SE VA/NE NC. Degraded conditions are likely with the front. VFR conditions are expected Monday with breezy conditions.
There is a slight chc of light rain and/or snow showers Monday night with an upper level system, but conditions should remain VFR.
VFR/dry Tuesday through Thursday with breezy conditions during the aftn hours.

MARINE
As of 200 AM EST Sunday..

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the waters tonight, with elevated winds and seas expected into the middle of the week.

- Gale watches have been issued for the coastal waters, Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound Monday night into Tuesday.

Early this morning, a warm front is draped over the far southern waters (Currituck Sound over to the southern coastal waters). This front will continue to lift north of the waters this morning into the early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are located near the boundary, with brief periods of heavy downpours and localized gusty winds possible. Otherwise, winds are are generally out of the S south of the boundary and SE further north around 10 to 15 knots. A strong cold front approaches from the west today, crossing the waters later this evening into tonight. A few additional showers or storms will be possible with the front which may have localized gusty winds.
Behind the front, there will be an initial surge of NW winds (15 to 20 knots), mainly after ~06 to 09z Monday, with the strongest gusts Monday morning into Monday afternoon. This first surge will require SCA for at least the Chesapeake Bay, rivers/sound, and potentially portions of the coastal waters, will let the next shift handle these headlines.

A secondary cold front/surge of CAA crosses the waters Monday evening into Monday night. Given the degree of airmass change (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild waters, Gale conditions appear increasingly likely Monday night into Tuesday. Gale Watches have been hoisted for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. It is possible watches may also be needed for the Lower James River, but slightly lower confidence here. The remainder of the waters will likely see high-end SCA conditions with occasional gusts to around gale force. Westerly winds remain elevated through Tuesday afternoon before diminishing slightly in the evening. Another round of near gale force gusts is possible Tuesday night. SCAs are likely to persist into the mid-week period with 20-25kt winds before gradual diminishing later in the week.

Seas increase to 4-5ft early Monday night, then again to 4-6ft by Tuesday afternoon. Offshore wind direction should keep highest seas closer to 20nm out. Seas drop below 5ft later in the week. Waves in the bay will be 1-2ft today, 2-3ft Monday, and 3-5ft Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for VAZ065-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ633.
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for ANZ650-652-654.