Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elliott, MD
September 12, 2024 11:55 PM EDT (03:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:40 AM Sunset 7:16 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM Moonset 11:59 PM |
ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1033 Pm Edt Thu Sep 12 2024
Rest of tonight - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft.
Sat - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1033 Pm Edt Thu Sep 12 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a large area of high pressure over the northeast will persist through early next week. Francine is expected to track from the northern gulf coast to the middle mississippi river valley while weakening and eventually dissipating through this weekend. An area of low pressure will likely develop off the southeast coast and move toward the carolinas early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for the waters off southern maryland at times through Saturday, and may be needed for a broader area Saturday night into Sunday.
a large area of high pressure over the northeast will persist through early next week. Francine is expected to track from the northern gulf coast to the middle mississippi river valley while weakening and eventually dissipating through this weekend. An area of low pressure will likely develop off the southeast coast and move toward the carolinas early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for the waters off southern maryland at times through Saturday, and may be needed for a broader area Saturday night into Sunday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 130056 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 856 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place north of the region through late this week bringing seasonable temperatures. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine continue to lift slowly across the deep south while weakening. The system will send increasing clouds toward the mid- Atlantic region into the weekend. A chance for some scattered light rain showers returns to the forecast Friday into the weekend, mainly for areas south of US-460. Uncertainty remains in next week's forecast, though an unsettled pattern looks likely.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds continue to stream into the area tonight.
- Patchy fog possible once again late tonight.
Surface analysis shows a dominant 1027mb area of high pressure centered offshore of the New England coast, extending back across the Mid-Atlantic and even Great Lakes region. Francine is now a Tropical Depression across central Mississippi, with a slow northward trajectory while continuing to fall apart in the next 24-36 hours thanks to our local upper level ridging being in the way of any further forward movement.
The most noticeable factor of this evening is the increase in cloudiness across the area. Afternoon cumulus has mostly dissipated. Additionally, high clouds from the outer fringes of Francine continue to stream north and east across our southern counties. This will persist through the rest of the near term forecast period. Additionally, a slight increase in low-level moisture is occurring with dewpoints rising a few degrees compared to this time yesterday. This could lead to another round of low stratus/ground fog late tonight into Friday morning. Think the best chance for fog will be across northern and northwestern locations where the clearing is lasting longer.
Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with increased cloud cover.
- Chances of PoPs increase across the Hampton Roads region into south central VA and northeast NC Friday afternoon where spotty light rain showers will be possible into the weekend.
High pressure to the northeast will continue to dominate our local weather and keep the drier air fetch in place to allow for mostly dry conditions. The exception will be along and south of US-460, and especially closer to the VA/NC border where low-level moisture will gradually creep in. PWAT values Friday afternoon will be around 1.5- 1.75" across the south as some overrunning moisture attempts to push in along the onshore flow. Thus, there will be a slight chance of showers for the southern CWA, particularly SE VA/NE NC each day through the weekend. Not expecting any heavy rain, but enough of a shower to be a nuisance for any outdoor plans. Meanwhile, the organized remnants of Francine will dissipate and the moisture will meander across the Southeast for a couple of days before becoming a surface trough along the coast. With the abundance of cloud cover, expect high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
Key messages:
- Scattered light precipitation will be possible across the south/southeast through the weekend.
- Rain chances look better for early to mid week, though uncertainty still remains.
Guidance continues to show the remnants of Francine becoming a surface trough along the Southeast coast to start the new week. The primary question is will it re-develop into a surface low and take on any subtropical or tropical characteristics. The deterministic GFS is the primary proponent for that solution, with the 12Z run bringing it ashore slightly further south Monday evening and further west once it's in our neck of the woods on Tuesday. The ECMWF 00Z/12 run doesn't show the prominent surface low developing, but does have a plume of moisture pushing back into our area from the surface trough starting later Monday. This is why confidence is still lower with this system as model runs continue to change the track and timing details. Regardless, currently expect rain chances to increase from south to north later Monday into Tuesday.
Models then indicate the low/trough getting hung up just to our west for most of the week as high pressure stays firmly in place offshore. If this occurs, rain chances would continue each day through the week. While the details will continue to be worked out, it's looking more likely that an unsettled pattern will set up for our region for the upcoming week. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions prevail this evening but increasing low level moisture on easterly winds will allow for MVFR and possibly IFR conditions at SBY and RIC overnight. Guidance shows most of the low VSBY occuring N and NW of RIC and SBY but it could sneak into either terminal overnight. Greater confidence in seeing MVFR/IFR CIGs at SBY tonight so have prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR for a few hours starting at midnight. Increasing moisture across the southern terminals (ORF, PHF, and ECG) will lead to areas of MVFR CIGs . Confidence is highest at ECG where MVFR CIGs prevail Friday morning. ENE winds 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt are likely for all but SBY on Friday.
Outlook: Expect prevailing VFR conditions into the weekend but some MVFR/IFR is possible each overnight period as moisture continues to increase. There is a low chance of a SHRA for SE VA/NE NC (including ORF/ECG) each day, though they should be relatively low impact. Higher rain chances are possible next week.
MARINE
As of 845 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Raised a Small Craft Advisory for the NC coastal waters, with additional SCAs likely for the weekend.
- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to linger into next week.
The latest sfc analysis indicates >1025mb high pressure now centered well off the New England coast this evening, with a weak area of low pressure is located along a frontal boundary well E of the GA/SC coast, and post tropical cyclone Francine slowly moving N over the Mississippi Valley. The wind is mainly E/NE 10- 15kt, with occasional gusts up to 20kt. Seas range from 2-3ft N of Parramore to 3-4ft S to the VA/NC border, and 4-5 ft in the NC waters). Waves in the middle Ches Bay are 1-2ft, and 2-3ft in the lower Bay. With seas remaining in the 4-5 ft range across NC, have raised a SCA and extended it out through Saturday given that seas will remain steady or slowly build into Sat (to 5-6 ft).
High pressure remains off the New England coast tonight into Friday, with another high building and strengthening into New England Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to a period of prolonged ENE flow with building seas/waves. Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into most of Friday (except in the NC coastal waters). An ENE wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt for the ocean, lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound Friday night through Sunday. Seas build this weekend to 4-6ft N and 5-7ft S, with 3-4ft waves in lower Ches.
Bay, and 2- 3ft farther N in the Bay. SCA conditions are likely Friday night into the weekend.
With the strong high pressure staying off the N/NE Atlantic coast, on-shore ESE flow will likely remain for the majority of next week. There is some uncertainty between models about low pressure developing off the Carolina coast early next week.
Waves in the bay will be the highest on Tuesday between 2-4 ft, with winds 15-20 kt. Seas in the ocean will also be highest on Tuesday between 5-7 ft, with winds 15-20 kt. Winds and waves remain slightly lower than Tuesday for the rest of the week with seas around 3-5 ft and winds between 10-15 kt.
A moderate rip current risk is forecast for Friday from VA Beach and pts north, with a high risk for Outer Banks Currituck.
Increasing onshore flow and building nearshore waves will likely result in a high rip risk this weekend.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 856 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place north of the region through late this week bringing seasonable temperatures. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine continue to lift slowly across the deep south while weakening. The system will send increasing clouds toward the mid- Atlantic region into the weekend. A chance for some scattered light rain showers returns to the forecast Friday into the weekend, mainly for areas south of US-460. Uncertainty remains in next week's forecast, though an unsettled pattern looks likely.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds continue to stream into the area tonight.
- Patchy fog possible once again late tonight.
Surface analysis shows a dominant 1027mb area of high pressure centered offshore of the New England coast, extending back across the Mid-Atlantic and even Great Lakes region. Francine is now a Tropical Depression across central Mississippi, with a slow northward trajectory while continuing to fall apart in the next 24-36 hours thanks to our local upper level ridging being in the way of any further forward movement.
The most noticeable factor of this evening is the increase in cloudiness across the area. Afternoon cumulus has mostly dissipated. Additionally, high clouds from the outer fringes of Francine continue to stream north and east across our southern counties. This will persist through the rest of the near term forecast period. Additionally, a slight increase in low-level moisture is occurring with dewpoints rising a few degrees compared to this time yesterday. This could lead to another round of low stratus/ground fog late tonight into Friday morning. Think the best chance for fog will be across northern and northwestern locations where the clearing is lasting longer.
Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with increased cloud cover.
- Chances of PoPs increase across the Hampton Roads region into south central VA and northeast NC Friday afternoon where spotty light rain showers will be possible into the weekend.
High pressure to the northeast will continue to dominate our local weather and keep the drier air fetch in place to allow for mostly dry conditions. The exception will be along and south of US-460, and especially closer to the VA/NC border where low-level moisture will gradually creep in. PWAT values Friday afternoon will be around 1.5- 1.75" across the south as some overrunning moisture attempts to push in along the onshore flow. Thus, there will be a slight chance of showers for the southern CWA, particularly SE VA/NE NC each day through the weekend. Not expecting any heavy rain, but enough of a shower to be a nuisance for any outdoor plans. Meanwhile, the organized remnants of Francine will dissipate and the moisture will meander across the Southeast for a couple of days before becoming a surface trough along the coast. With the abundance of cloud cover, expect high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
Key messages:
- Scattered light precipitation will be possible across the south/southeast through the weekend.
- Rain chances look better for early to mid week, though uncertainty still remains.
Guidance continues to show the remnants of Francine becoming a surface trough along the Southeast coast to start the new week. The primary question is will it re-develop into a surface low and take on any subtropical or tropical characteristics. The deterministic GFS is the primary proponent for that solution, with the 12Z run bringing it ashore slightly further south Monday evening and further west once it's in our neck of the woods on Tuesday. The ECMWF 00Z/12 run doesn't show the prominent surface low developing, but does have a plume of moisture pushing back into our area from the surface trough starting later Monday. This is why confidence is still lower with this system as model runs continue to change the track and timing details. Regardless, currently expect rain chances to increase from south to north later Monday into Tuesday.
Models then indicate the low/trough getting hung up just to our west for most of the week as high pressure stays firmly in place offshore. If this occurs, rain chances would continue each day through the week. While the details will continue to be worked out, it's looking more likely that an unsettled pattern will set up for our region for the upcoming week. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions prevail this evening but increasing low level moisture on easterly winds will allow for MVFR and possibly IFR conditions at SBY and RIC overnight. Guidance shows most of the low VSBY occuring N and NW of RIC and SBY but it could sneak into either terminal overnight. Greater confidence in seeing MVFR/IFR CIGs at SBY tonight so have prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR for a few hours starting at midnight. Increasing moisture across the southern terminals (ORF, PHF, and ECG) will lead to areas of MVFR CIGs . Confidence is highest at ECG where MVFR CIGs prevail Friday morning. ENE winds 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt are likely for all but SBY on Friday.
Outlook: Expect prevailing VFR conditions into the weekend but some MVFR/IFR is possible each overnight period as moisture continues to increase. There is a low chance of a SHRA for SE VA/NE NC (including ORF/ECG) each day, though they should be relatively low impact. Higher rain chances are possible next week.
MARINE
As of 845 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Raised a Small Craft Advisory for the NC coastal waters, with additional SCAs likely for the weekend.
- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to linger into next week.
The latest sfc analysis indicates >1025mb high pressure now centered well off the New England coast this evening, with a weak area of low pressure is located along a frontal boundary well E of the GA/SC coast, and post tropical cyclone Francine slowly moving N over the Mississippi Valley. The wind is mainly E/NE 10- 15kt, with occasional gusts up to 20kt. Seas range from 2-3ft N of Parramore to 3-4ft S to the VA/NC border, and 4-5 ft in the NC waters). Waves in the middle Ches Bay are 1-2ft, and 2-3ft in the lower Bay. With seas remaining in the 4-5 ft range across NC, have raised a SCA and extended it out through Saturday given that seas will remain steady or slowly build into Sat (to 5-6 ft).
High pressure remains off the New England coast tonight into Friday, with another high building and strengthening into New England Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to a period of prolonged ENE flow with building seas/waves. Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into most of Friday (except in the NC coastal waters). An ENE wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt for the ocean, lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound Friday night through Sunday. Seas build this weekend to 4-6ft N and 5-7ft S, with 3-4ft waves in lower Ches.
Bay, and 2- 3ft farther N in the Bay. SCA conditions are likely Friday night into the weekend.
With the strong high pressure staying off the N/NE Atlantic coast, on-shore ESE flow will likely remain for the majority of next week. There is some uncertainty between models about low pressure developing off the Carolina coast early next week.
Waves in the bay will be the highest on Tuesday between 2-4 ft, with winds 15-20 kt. Seas in the ocean will also be highest on Tuesday between 5-7 ft, with winds 15-20 kt. Winds and waves remain slightly lower than Tuesday for the rest of the week with seas around 3-5 ft and winds between 10-15 kt.
A moderate rip current risk is forecast for Friday from VA Beach and pts north, with a high risk for Outer Banks Currituck.
Increasing onshore flow and building nearshore waves will likely result in a high rip risk this weekend.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 12 mi | 56 min | ENE 11G | 71°F | 77°F | 30.21 | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 13 mi | 56 min | ESE 8.9G | 69°F | 74°F | 30.23 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 19 mi | 56 min | ENE 12G | 70°F | 30.21 | |||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 23 mi | 56 min | E 11G | 72°F | 77°F | 30.20 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 24 mi | 38 min | E 12G | 67°F | 75°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 30 mi | 44 min | ENE 12G | 70°F | 76°F | 1 ft | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 32 mi | 56 min | ESE 11G | |||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 36 mi | 56 min | E 12G | 73°F | 76°F | 30.19 | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 42 mi | 56 min | E 11G | 71°F | 30.24 | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 45 mi | 86 min | 0 | 64°F | 30.21 | 62°F | ||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 46 mi | 38 min | ESE 9.7G | 69°F | 75°F | 1 ft | ||
| CPVM2 | 46 mi | 56 min | 70°F | 67°F | ||||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 48 mi | 56 min | E 8.9G | 72°F | 77°F | 30.21 | ||
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 49 mi | 56 min | E 5.1G | 71°F | 73°F | 30.17 |
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCGE
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCGE
Wind History graph: CGE
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:50 AM EDT 0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EDT 2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:29 PM EDT 0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM EDT 2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:50 AM EDT 0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EDT 2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:29 PM EDT 0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM EDT 2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.7 |
Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:03 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:48 AM EDT 0.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:01 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:38 PM EDT -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:01 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:44 PM EDT 0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:03 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:48 AM EDT 0.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:01 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:38 PM EDT -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:01 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:44 PM EDT 0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| -0.5 |
| 6 am |
| -0.5 |
| 7 am |
| -0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
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