Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:43PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:02 AM EST (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 439 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain or drizzle likely.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely through the night.
ANZ500 439 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak low pressure developing along the warm front east of us will lift northward across the mid-atlantic on Monday. Another low pressure system moving into the great lakes will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday evening into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 090839 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure lifts north along the Virginia coast this morning, then exits off the Delmarva Peninsula this afternoon. Strong low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes later today and into eastern Canada Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the local area Tuesday night. High pressure returns late Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

AKQ land has it all, from convective showers this morning, to near record high temps Tues aftrn to a psbl rain/wet snow mix Wed morning across the northern tier zones.

Latest MSAS has a sfc trof along the NC/VA coast with a wave of low pressure tracking north ivof the Albemarle Sound. This low will continue its track nne today, exiting off the Delmarva this aftrn. Latest radar shwrg some convective elements with this systm across sern VA/ne NC attm while a steady rain with areas of fog are noted to the north and as far west as the I95 corridor.

PoPs will be the highest across ern half of fa this morning, tapering off this aftrn across the east as the systm pulls away from the region. Data also shows increasing moisture in a dvlpng wedge across nwrn zones along with mid level energy rotating in from the nw this aftrn. Temps tricky, but milder than recent days. Expect highs to range from the low-mid 50s nw to the upr 60s se where BINOVC allows for some partial late day sun.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

Little if any temp drop tonight due to the SW flow and WAA in place ahead of the cold front apprchg the mts. Little support for pcpn, but enuf lingering moisture exists for a few shwrs across the north. Looks like a cloudy and mild nite with more low stratus than fog. Lows in the 50s to near 60 se.

Tues to the the "in btwn" day with not much occuring until the moisture ahead of the apprchg cold front enters the fa during the aftrn. It starts off cloudy and mild with little support for any pcpn thru 18Z. Clouds break up a bit across the se while shwrs spread east of the mts by late aftrn. Unseasonably warm along with a breezy sw wind. Tuff call on whether the nwrn most zones erode the wedge completely so for now will hold temps in the low-mid 60s there. Otw, temps rise to arnd 70 east of I95 with mid 70s across the se. See CLI section below for record high temps.

The cold front crosses the area Tues night with likely/categorical PoPs through 12z. Models now showing the potential for a pcpn type issue arnd 12Z Wed across the nrn most zones. While the thicknesses crash as the colder air rapidly follows the fropa, sfc and wet bulb temps remain above freezing. Much like the mid Nov event, pcpn intensity will likely determine whether and how much wet snow can mix in with the rain. Thus, adjusted the grids a bit to reflect a svrl hr prd (09Z-15Z) Wed for a rain/wet snow mix. For now, think this occurs btwn 09Z-12Z across Louisa/Fluvanna then btwn 12Z-15Z from Louisa ne to nrn Carolina to Dorchester. No accumls expected attm. Lows Tue nite mid 30s nrn zones to low-mid 40s srn zones.

Likely PoPs Wed morning with decreasing PoPs west to east Wed aftrn as the cold front moves offshore. In fact, wrn zones will likely become ot sunny late. Not much rise in temps given the clouds and CAA. Highs in 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Sunday .

Strong high pressure over the upper Midwest will build into the region Wednesday night. Strong cold advection on northwesterly winds will lead to overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 20s NW, mid to upper 20s for the I-95 corridor, and upper 20s and low 30s for SE VA and NE NC. The aforementioned surface high will become centered over/just north of the local area on Thursday with decreasing clouds and winds. Daytime high temperatures will only make it into the upper 30s and low 40s on Thursday. Models have come into much better agreement and all now keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly overnight lows range from the low 20s NW to upper 30s SE.

Surface high pressure continues its eastward migration on Friday but will still extend ridging to the SW along and east of the higher terrain. GFS/ECMWF solutions diverge regarding timing for the expected wet period late week into the weekend with the GFS around 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. Will increase PoPs slowly from the south/southwest during the day on Friday but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall Friday night into Saturday as low pressure lifts northward across the region. Given the slower timing, high pressure will have moved well away from the favored area to supply cold/dry air to the region and concerns for mixed precipitation have decreased. High temps on Friday range from the low 40s NW, close to 50 degrees for the Richmond metro, and low to mid 50s for areas east of I-95. Not looking particularly cold behind the weekend system either, highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1240 AM EST Monday .

IFR CIGS/VSBYS in rain/fog are noted away from the coast due to the pcpn moving north as low pres moves north along the Mid Atlntc coast. These conditions continue if not expand overnight as the low lifts north along the Delmarva and the flow becomes onshore. The steadiest pcpn shifts ne before 18Z, but lingering rain/drizzle and fog continue away from the water due lingering ll moisture assctd with a weak wedge of cool air. CIGS lift to VFR this aftrn over sern TAF sites due to drier air punching ne behind the departing low.

OUTLOOK . The area will be largely rain free late tonite into Tue morning. with localized reductions in CIGS/VSBYS tonite due to areas of fog/stratus. Periods of lower CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/shwrs are likely Tues aftn through Wed morning, as low pressure tracks well to our NW. A trailing cold front will cross the area Tues night. High pressure builds into the area for Wednesday/Thursday.

MARINE. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

Latest analysis shows a warm front that extends northward and parallels the coastal waters. Winds across the coastal waters have already turned S/SE 15-20 kts, while winds across the bay on the other side of the front are still northerly 10-15 kts. Seas are 3-6 ft in the southern coastal waters and 3-4 ft in the northern coastal waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft. The front will continue to advance north and a bit further inland today. Winds over the bay should become southerly this morning as a result. The increasing S/SW flow should bring winds in the bay and southern James up to 15- 20 kts by late Monday night. Winds over the coastal waters will remain S/SW 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft by Monday night with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas will continue to build and by late Monday night will be 5-8 ft. SCA is now in effect for the coastal waters, and SCA will be issued for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound for later tonight through about 18Z Tuesday. Confidence is lower for SCA on the rivers outside of the lower James, so will leave them out for now.

With very warm conditions Tuesday during the day ahead of an approaching cold front, winds over the cold waters will likely diminish a bit (though seas on the coast will remain at or above 5 ft). SCA conditions likely for all zones Tue night/Wed AM as colder air moves in from the North. Potential for stronger winds Wednesday night into Thursday as a secondary cold surge arrives with strong high pressure building in from the North while low pressure lingers over the SE CONUS. Seas will also remain elevated through this period.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi56 min ENE 7 G 8.9 44°F 44°F1020.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi56 min E 9.9 G 11 46°F 44°F1020 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi44 min S 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 47°F1019.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi26 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 1021.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 30 mi26 min 46°F 47°F953.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi44 min W 1.9 G 1.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi56 min SSE 5.1 G 7 46°F 44°F1020 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi62 min E 7 G 8.9 44°F 45°F1020.6 hPa (-4.2)44°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi26 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 44°F 45°F1020.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi44 min 45°F 1019.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi56 min S 9.9 G 12 53°F 47°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi67 minE 52.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1020.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi70 minESE 810.00 miOvercast47°F45°F93%1019.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE6SE3SE9SE7
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5SE10S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN43N6E4SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:18 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:42 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.91.510.50.20.10.40.91.52.12.62.72.52.11.61.10.60.30.30.511.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     0.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:41 PM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.60.70.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.3-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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