Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elliott, MD
May 7, 2024 5:12 AM EDT (09:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM Moonset 6:53 PM |
ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 435 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of the overnight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 070834 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
The latest WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well of the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area. Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the area. Most of the earlier shower/tstm activity has waned, but there are still a few showers over the ern shore, and also down near the VA-NC border. Areas of fog have developed in the piedmont from FVX to LKU where the sky cleared out after midnight with a moist boundary layer. Have issued an SPS for now, and will monitor to see if the lower VSBYs become more widespread (uncertain as an area of mid level clouds is approaching from the west and would tend to improve VSBYs).
Otherwise, mild and humid early this morning with lows from around 60F in the piedmont to the mid/upper 60s twds the coast.
For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a little steeper today compared to the past few days with the expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as upper level flow become NW as the upper ridge W of the Appalachians amplifies. Expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but still in the high chc range this aftn (mainly 40-50%), with a bit lower coverage over the SW zones. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...
The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now.
Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...
Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s).
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...
Showers taper off from W to E, with mainly just spotty showers through midday. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont (both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly VFR across the SE. Expect to see flight restrictions develop between 09-13Z to the coast as well.
Then, conditions improve to VFR by later morning/early aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds tonight.
Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat.
MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore.
A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low.
Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...
Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1 foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides as we approach the new moon phase.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
The latest WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well of the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area. Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the area. Most of the earlier shower/tstm activity has waned, but there are still a few showers over the ern shore, and also down near the VA-NC border. Areas of fog have developed in the piedmont from FVX to LKU where the sky cleared out after midnight with a moist boundary layer. Have issued an SPS for now, and will monitor to see if the lower VSBYs become more widespread (uncertain as an area of mid level clouds is approaching from the west and would tend to improve VSBYs).
Otherwise, mild and humid early this morning with lows from around 60F in the piedmont to the mid/upper 60s twds the coast.
For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a little steeper today compared to the past few days with the expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as upper level flow become NW as the upper ridge W of the Appalachians amplifies. Expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but still in the high chc range this aftn (mainly 40-50%), with a bit lower coverage over the SW zones. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...
The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now.
Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...
Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s).
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...
Showers taper off from W to E, with mainly just spotty showers through midday. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont (both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly VFR across the SE. Expect to see flight restrictions develop between 09-13Z to the coast as well.
Then, conditions improve to VFR by later morning/early aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds tonight.
Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat.
MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore.
A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low.
Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...
Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1 foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides as we approach the new moon phase.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 12 mi | 54 min | S 1.9G | 66°F | 69°F | 29.80 | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 13 mi | 54 min | W 1G | 66°F | 66°F | 29.81 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 19 mi | 54 min | W 1.9G | 65°F | 29.81 | |||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 23 mi | 54 min | NW 1.9G | 65°F | 64°F | 29.79 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 24 mi | 48 min | W 3.9G | 62°F | 65°F | 0 ft | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 30 mi | 48 min | WNW 5.8G | 63°F | 64°F | 0 ft | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 32 mi | 54 min | NW 1.9G | |||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 36 mi | 54 min | W 2.9G | 67°F | 67°F | 29.80 | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 42 mi | 72 min | S 1.9G | 65°F | 29.84 | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 45 mi | 102 min | 0 | 65°F | 29.80 | 65°F | ||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 46 mi | 48 min | NNE 3.9G | 63°F | 63°F | 0 ft | ||
| CPVM2 | 46 mi | 54 min | 65°F | 65°F | ||||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 48 mi | 54 min | NNW 1.9G | 65°F | 69°F | 29.80 | ||
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 49 mi | 54 min | SSW 2.9G | 61°F | 59°F | 29.75 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 10 sm | 27 min | calm | 3/4 sm | Overcast | Mist | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.80 |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 22 sm | 20 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 64°F | 88% | 29.80 |
Tide / Current for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT 3.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT 2.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:41 PM EDT -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT 3.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT 2.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:41 PM EDT -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 3.1 |
| 2 am |
| 3.3 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:46 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT 0.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:57 PM EDT -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:46 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT 0.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:57 PM EDT -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0 |
| 7 am |
| -0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0.6 |
| 9 am |
| -0.8 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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