Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:32PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:55 AM EDT (13:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:13PMMoonset 5:42AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 858 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming s. Waves 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 858 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will move northeast through the waters this morning and waves of low pressure will pass through the area this afternoon through tonight. A few Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, and special marine warnings may be required. A weak cold front will pass through the waters on Wednesday and a stronger cold front will pass through on Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday through Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 071206 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 806 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front lifts north into the Delmarva by this afternoon, and moves off to the northeast of the area this evening. A cold front then pushes in from the northwest on Wednesday, with a stronger cold front crossing the local area on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday .

Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc boundary in the vicinity of southern VA/northern NC early this morning, with a combinations of mid level clouds moving through the entire CWA the WNW flow aloft, and some patchy low stratus and fog mainly across interior southern VA and NE NC. Temperatures are in the 40s to lower 50s.

For today, primary concern will be that WNW flow aloft, a pattern that often brings significant to severe wx to the local area given the right scenario. Latest SPC outlook for Day1/today is for a slight risk mainly along and to the N/NE of the I-64 corridor, with a marginal risk to the S/SW. Overall, the limiting factor to the S will be that the coverage of storms will be less, owing to the potential for too much dry air and a lot of westerly flow all the way down to the sfc. The aforementioned boundary will be lifting slowly to the N/NE later this morning and into the aftn but looks to hang up across the northern Neck to the eastern shore. Along the front is where the greatest threat for severe wx should reside and that is why the slight risk has been pushed to the north compared to yesterday. This will mainly be a wind/large hail threat given strong mid level lapse rates (6.5 to 7C) and an inverted V type sounding. However, if enough instability can make its way into the vicinity of the frontal boundary late this aftn/early this evening, an isolated TOR threat will be present (confined to the slight risk area).

Coverage of pcpn decreases this evening most areas, though persists into the evening over the eastern shore. A mainly dry forecast from late evening onward, except for the potential for a second round of showers/tstms that try to approach our far northern areas after midnight (associated with another impulse moving SE from the Great lakes/OH Valley). Lows tonight in the lower to mid 50s NE to upper 50s/around 60F elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday .

On Wed . a sfc low over the Great Lakes tracks across PA and eventually offshore . pushing a weak boundary through the local area during the latter part of the day. Wed will be mainly dry SW . but ISOLD SHRAs/tstms cannot be ruled out late in the day . mainly E of I-95 as the boundary crosses the region (before the best upper forcing moves offshore and despite deep layered WSW flow).

SPC has the FA in a MRGL risk for severe wx on Wed OTW. partly cloudy conditions will lead to a warmer day for all areas. Highs in the 70s over the north and across the ern shore w/ mainly low- mid 80s elsewhere. The weak boundary washes out Wed night and winds turn back to the S as strong low pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks ESE across srn Canada. The associated (trailing) cold front is expected to reach near/just W of the Appalachians by 12z/09. Still dry Wed night w/ lows mainly in the 50s. That cold front crosses the region Thu . potentially leading to at least ISOLD pcpn for N and NE areas OTW. partly cloudy and breezy Thu w/ highs in the m-u70s N to the m80s over interior NE NC.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday .

The extended period will bring cooler wx to the local area. The 00Z/07 models suggest some clouds Fri as a strong shortwave aloft passes through the area, but conditions look dry. Partly cloudy . breezy and cooler w/ highs Fri mainly in the m-u50s N to around 60F central and S.

Dry and remaining cool Fri night through Sat night. By Sun into Mon . models disagree on the timing of a potentially more significant area of lo pres tracking through the region. Right now . used a blend of the guidance . and increased clouds/PoPs Sun-Mon. Lows Fri night in the low-mid 30s inland to the low-mid 40s along the SE VA/NE NC coasts. Highs Sat in the u50s- around 60F N and NE to the l-60s S. Lows Sat night in the u30s- l40s . except u40s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Sun/Mon ranging through the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 730 AM EDT Tuesday .

Patchy fog/low stratus continues with pockets of IFR conditions early this morning, mainly confined to interior southern VA and NE NC. VFR elsewhere with SCT-BKN clouds. The fog/low clouds will scatter out through 14Z and will genly not affect the TAF sites. Later today, winds increase from the SW as a warm front lifts N of most of the region. Scattered SHRAs/tstms expected later in the aftn into the early evening, with greatest coverage expected to be over the NE sections of the CWA (though at least isolated showers/tstms will be possible anywhere). Periodic showers/flight restrictions may persist at SBY through the entire evening. Isolated strong/severe tstms will be possible late in the aftn into the early evening w/ the potential for wind gusts in excess of 40kt. For now, have VCTS mentioned at RIC and either prevailing SHRA (SBY) or VCSH ORF/PHF.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected Wed-Thu, but some isolated/scattered SHRAs/tstms (and associated flight restrictions) will again develop Wed afternoon (as a weak upper level system crosses the area) and during the day Thu (w/ a more substantial cold frontal passage). VFR/dry Fri.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday .

A weak frontal boundary is situated just south of the local waters this morning, resulting in light S-SW winds. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft. The front lifts back north as a warm front later this morning into the afternoon, but will likely stay just west of the local waters (given cooler SSTs). This will allow winds to remain from the S around 10 kt or less through the day with similar waves/seas.

Sub-SCA conditions expected to continue from tonight into Thu morning as the warm front makes progress north tonight and then we wait for the next weak cold front to cross the area late Wed. Not much of a cool surge behind the next cold front and therefore not expecting much increase in winds. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft.

A stronger cold front is expected to cross the area on Thursday, producing SCA conditions by the afternoon and continuing Thursday night through late Friday given a decent CAA surge. SW-W winds 15-25 kt Thursday afternoon will become NW Thursday night into Friday. Waves 2-3 ft (potentially up to 4 ft) in the Bay with seas of 3-5 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . ALB/LKB LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . LKB MARINE . JDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi56 min SSE 7 G 8.9 55°F 57°F1015.3 hPa (+0.0)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi56 min SSE 5.1 G 6 55°F 55°F1015 hPa (-0.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 19 mi86 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 1015.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi56 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 55°F 55°F1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi32 min S 9.7 G 9.7 54°F 981.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 30 mi32 min SE 5.8 G 9.7 54°F 1015.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi56 min SSE 6 G 7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi56 min S 5.1 G 6 55°F 56°F1015.3 hPa (+0.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi56 min S 9.9 G 9.9 54°F 53°F1015.8 hPa (-0.3)54°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi146 min S 5.1 1014 hPa
CPVM2 46 mi56 min 54°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi56 min 56°F 1014.3 hPa (+0.0)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi56 min WSW 8.9 G 11

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi71 minVar 410.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1015.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi64 minSSE 39.00 miA Few Clouds58°F55°F93%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N10NE11N12NE11NE11NE12NE7NE4E3NE6CalmCalmS6SW6S6SW6SW3SW6SW5CalmCalmE4S3
1 day agoSW8W7W8S4SE13SE10SE15SE12SE9SE8S5S6S6S4S4SW43NW5----W4W6W7N13
2 days agoN12N11N10NE11NE11NE11E10E7--CalmNE3SE6SE6S3S5S4SW6SW7SW7SW5SW6W3W6W6

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:57 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:25 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.93.12.92.31.60.80.1-0.3-0.400.81.72.5332.61.91.10.3-0.2-0.4-0.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:36 AM EDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:17 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:03 PM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:25 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.50.70.70.60.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.50.60.50.30-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.