Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:27PM Monday October 14, 2019 7:02 AM EDT (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:17PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 500 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Rest of the overnight..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft.
ANZ500 500 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build from the tennessee valley toward new england through Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from the great lakes and weakens. A strong area of low pressure will move across the ohio valley Wednesday, then re-develop over southeastern virginia and move up the coast toward new england Wednesday night into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday through Thursday, with gales possible Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 141054
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
654 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure returns to the area today into Tuesday. Rain
chances increase early Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front.

Clearing with gusty winds and falling temperatures for mid late
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 645 am edt Monday...

weak low pressure continues away from the mid atlantic coast
this morning. Low stratus and fog will mix out through mid
morning inland but low clouds will hold on into the early
afternoon across the southeast. Clearing skies and dry westerly
flow will allow temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 70s
this afternoon. Clear skies tonight will result in cool
overnight low temps, ranging from the mid 40s across the
piedmont to the low 50s east of i-95.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 345 am edt Monday...

dry and pleasant on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds
turn to the southeast by afternoon as surface high pressure migrates
offshore ahead of low pressure over the great lakes. Secondary low
pressure will form over the carolinas Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Models have trended about 6 hours slower with the onset
of higher pops spreading from SW to NE Wednesday morning. Some much
needed rain will impact the area mid late morning into the
afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 60s NW to mid 70s
se. Forecast soundings do show some meager instability across
the east and southeast Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold
front so have included slight chance of thunder in these areas.

Pops trend downward quickly Wednesday evening with gusty wnw
winds remaining elevated overnight. Cool overnight lows behind
the front ranging from the mid 40s W to about 50 degrees near
the coast.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 240 pm edt Sunday...

cold front pushes well off the coast Wed night. Cool dry air on
gusty wnw winds expected through Thu as trough aloft is slow to
depart to the ene. Sfc hi pres brings dry wx Fri into next
weekend (w near seasonable temperatures).

Lows Wed night from the m-u40s inland to the l50s at the coast.

Highs Thu in the l-m60s. Lows Thu night 40-45f inland to around
50f at the immediate coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows fri
night in the l-m40s inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast).

Highs Sat in the u60s-l70s. Highs Sun in the l70s at the coast
and m70s elsewhere.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 645 am edt Monday...

widespread ifr lifr CIGS are starting to lift this morning but
will hang on the longest across the SE terminals. Guidance
generally shows ifr lifting to MVFR andVFR through mid morning
at ric and sby. Will show prevailing ifr at orf, phf, and ecg
through 13-14z before lifting to MVFR. Much improved flying
weather for the remainder or the day into tonight. Winds
generally from the west AOB 10 knots through the forecast
period.

Outlook...

high pres pushes across the region Mon night and tue. A
stronger cold front crosses the region Wed with possible shras
and flight restrictions.

Marine
As of 320 am edt Monday...

a weak area of low pressure is currently located over the
nc southern va coastal plain, and is expected to gradually push
off to the NE later this morning. Winds are currently W SW at
around 10 kt (up to 15 kt on southern coastal waters) and are
forecast to shift to the W NW later this morning. Light winds by
later aftn may allow flow to become onshore in the bay and se
av NE nc coast. Seas will avg 3-4 ft with bay waves 1-2 ft. Another
weak cold front crosses the waters early Tue am, and while winds
will increase the CAA and pressure gradient is too weak for
issuance of any SCA headlines. N NE winds at up to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt. Tue am will become E at 5-10 kt during the
aftn. Sub- SCA conditions then prevail through at least the
first part of Tue night before another area of low pressure is
progged to impact the area on wed, followed by a much stronger
cold front Wed night. Solid scas (due to winds) look likely wed
night-thu behind the front. Local wind probabilities are
starting to latch onto ~50% chance for gale gusts at buoy 44009
by Wed evening and expect that gales may be needed over the
northern coastal waters. Due to the offshore NW flow, seas will
not build that much despite the strong winds, generally to 4-6
ft while waves in the bay build to ~4 ft with 2-3 ft waves in
the rivers. The current forecast has winds remaining AOA sca
thresholds through ~12z fri. Sub-sca conditions return by late
fri as high pressure settles over the waters.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 320 am edt Monday...

still seeing predominant ebbing at the mouth of the ches bay
and as a result, water levels in the bay continue to fall and
with high tide having passed at bishops head, no additional
flooding is anticipated. Will allow the coastal flood statement
for the md eastern shore to expire by 4 am.

Minor flooding is still occurring across sound side portions of
ne nc, so the coastal flood advisory has been extended there
through noon today. SW to W winds shifting to the NW may help
push much of this water back out of the sound towards the ocean
later today with falling water levels expected.

The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches today.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until noon edt today for ncz015>017-
030>032-102.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rhr
near term... Rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Alb
aviation... Rhr
marine... Lkb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi50 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 62°F 65°F1015.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi50 min NW 7 G 8.9 63°F 66°F1014.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 69°F1014.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi20 min N 5.8 G 5.8 62°F 1016.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 30 mi20 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 69°F1018.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi44 min SE 1 G 1.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi50 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 66°F1015.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi62 min W 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 67°F1016 hPa (+0.0)57°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi92 min WNW 1 50°F 1015 hPa50°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi20 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 66°F1015.6 hPa
CPVM2 46 mi44 min 59°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi44 min 56°F 1014.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi50 min NNW 6 G 7 64°F 65°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi82 minN 00.25 miFog57°F57°F100%1014.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi70 minN 010.00 miOvercast60°F57°F93%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE10NE10NE5NE6E5E6--E4NE5N3NE3N4N3CalmNW3CalmNW5NW7W4W3N3CalmCalm
1 day ago--W4CalmS3SW5CalmSE7E10SE9SE9SE6SE6CalmCalmCalmN5NW6N5NW8N9N9N7N7NE13
2 days agoN9N13
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N14N12N11N9N8N7E11E9E6CalmW3W3W4W4W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:53 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.32.72.92.72.31.71.10.70.40.40.81.52.32.83.132.72.21.510.60.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:51 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.40.60.70.60.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.