Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:54 AM EDT (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:14PMMoonset 11:06AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 900 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 900 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move off to the southeast today and high pressure will approach tonight through Wednesday before settling overhead during the latter portion of the week through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231106
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
706 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front crosses the area today as low pressure
tracks across north carolina. High pressure builds in from the
north Wednesday through Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 655 am edt Tuesday...

latest upper air analysis shows a deep upper trough centered
from ontario to the ERN midwest slowly moving eastward. At the
sfc, low pressure was centered from nj to long island, with the
trailing cold front extending SW to fci-fvx-nw nc. A second sfc
low pressure center has started to develop over ERN tn WRN nc.

Closer to our area, there are some pre-frontal showers across
the ERN cwa, with an area of steadier rain behind the front in
the va piedmont mountains. Temperatures have fallen into the
upper 60s across the NW piedmont, but are still in the mid 70s-
around 80f over SE va NE nc. No significant wx expected in the
from now through midday noon with just a steady light-moderate
rain across northern western zones and ongoing (scattered)
showers across the se.

While skies will remain mostly cloudy (even ahead of the front)
through much of the day today, there will be enough Sun for
temperatures to quickly rise into the 80s across SE va NE nc.

Highs will mainly be in the 70s (w temps dropping into the 60s
at times) over the NRN two-thirds of the cwa. As the front moves
into SE va by this aftn, numerous showers tstms will quickly
develop along it, with mainly light-moderate rain continuing
from central va to the nrn CWA border. The front is expected to
slow down as it crosses SE va (and eventually NE nc) later this
aftn-this evening in response to a developing area of sfc low
pressure tracking ene across nc during the day today. With
precipitable water values AOA 2 inches and the flow aloft nearly
parallel to the slow-moving frontal boundary, am still concerned
about the potential for training storms. Storms will initially
be discrete but are expected to quickly evolve into a line be
late aftn. The href continues to forecast 30-50% probs of >3" 3
hours (with the focus across SE va). Given relatively dry
antecedent conditions across far SE va, will hold off on
issuing an flash flood watch, as the ground (especially over
rural swampy areas) should be able to handle a decent amount of
rainfall. However, there is a relatively high chc of at least
some localized flash flooding in urban populated areas from
hampton roads to norfolk va beach. The potential for flash
flooding will need to be monitored and a short fused flash flood
watch may need to be issued. Qpfs through tonight range from
2-3" across the SE to 0.5-1.5" N of i-64.

There is also a marginal-slight risk of severe wx across se
va NE nc this aftn. Wind fields aloft increase as the upper
trough digs across the eastern half of the country, allowing a
40-50kt 500mb jet to move over the area. This wind field
combined with any afternoon heating will be enough for a few
strong to severe storms. However, the big limiting factor will
be the weak mid level lapse rates owing to the very moist
atmosphere. The best chc of severe wx will likely occur when the
cells are discrete initially (mainly from 17-21z). Tstms
eventually move into NE nc by evening as the front slowly moves
se and low pressure moves toward the NE nc coast. The front
finally clears the CWA by 00-03z Wed as the low moves offshore.

Showers end from NW to SE tonight as the low slowly pulls away
from the coast. Lows tonight mainly in the 60s (w upper 50s
possible across the NW piedmont and low 70s in coastal SE va ne
nc).

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 355 am edt Tuesday...

high pressure slowly builds in from the north on wed, before
becoming centered over the area late thu. One cannot rule out
scattered showers and isolated storms right through Wednesday
across coastal zones as the upper trough axis approaches the
area on wed. Kept pops mainly in the slight chc range, as the
latest guidance shows that any appreciable deep-layer
moisture will remain to our south and east. It will remain dry
across inland zones on Wed (and dry in all areas from Wed night
through Thu night).

Temps will be below average on Wed thu, with highs mainly in the
82-85f range (and lower humidity). Lows Wed Thu night mainly in
the low-mid 60s inland (while remaining around 70f along the
immediate coast of SE va NE nc.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

quiet and quite pleasant weather expected for the extended with
high pressure in control through the week and weekend. Will keep
with a dry forecast thu-Monday. Temps will slowly trend upwards
starting out in the mid 80s Thursday, then gradually rising to
the lower 90s Sun mon. Very seasonable for late july.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 700 am edt Tuesday...

scattered shras are ongoing throughout the area this morning and cigs
are starting to fall into the MVFR range. A cold front
(currently just S of ric) continues to cross the CWA from NW to
se through late evening. CIGS likely fall to ifr at ric by
15-16z, while remainingVFR MVFR elsewhere. Expect tstms to
develop along the front during the midday-aftn (likely over
se va at first), with mainly shras and a slight chc of thunder
n of the front. The front slows down later this aftn-this
evening as it approaches NE nc, with tstms expected to continue
along it. Tstms move SE of the terminals by 00-03z wed, but
scattered-numerous shras will continue through 06-09z near the
coast and across the se. Pcpn likely ends at ric by 00-03z wed.

Cigs drop to MVFR at all sites by aftn (w prevailing ifr cigs
likely continuing at ric). Prevailing ifr CIGS are possible at
sby phf orf by early evening, but confidence is too low to
include in the tafs. Vsbys in shras will mainly be 3-6sm, but
ifr lifr vsbys are likely in any tstm. Have added tempo groups
of tsra at phf orf ecg in the 18-00z timeframe due to high
confidence. Conditions improve from nw-se tonight-wed am.VFR
expected from wed-fri.

Marine
As of 220 am edt Tuesday...

a cold front will be slow to push across the local waters
through late today. SW winds 15-25 kt starting out... Gradually
lowering (to 10-20 kt) while becoming wnw then N post cold
front today. Scas to remain in place through early this morning
for all areas except the upper james... York... And rappahannock
rivers. The SCA will ling through the rest of the morning over
the NRN 2 3 of the ocean waters due to seas remaining 4-5 ft.

Sfc hi pres builds in behind the front from late Wed into fri
keeping NE winds 5-15 kt. With NE winds 5-15 knots. An increase
in seas to 2-4 ft, especially near and S of the mouth of the
ches bay... Will accompany the period of NE winds into the late
week period.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
anz630>634-638-656-658.

Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Eri mrd
near term... Eri mrd
short term... Eri mrd
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Eri
marine... Alb rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi61 min NNW 8.9 G 14 71°F 82°F1012.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi61 min 73°F 86°F1011.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 19 mi55 min NNW 11 G 16 70°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi55 min NW 6 G 9.9 71°F 84°F1011.8 hPa (+1.1)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi73 min N 14 G 18 71°F 1012.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi55 min N 17 G 21
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi61 min NNW 8 G 9.9 73°F 82°F1012.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi55 min W 14 G 16 70°F 83°F1013.2 hPa (+1.7)66°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi37 min NNW 12 G 14 71°F 84°F1012.2 hPa
CPVM2 46 mi55 min 71°F 71°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi55 min 72°F 1011.7 hPa (+1.7)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi55 min WNW 9.9 G 13 73°F 77°F1012.6 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi70 minNW 84.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F94%1011.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi63 minWNW 810.00 miLight Rain70°F66°F90%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW9NW9NW11NW10SW11
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2 days agoNW6NW8N74SE10SE10SW8S6SW5SW3SW4SW3SW4SW5SW6SW6W8W8W8SW3W6W6W8NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:17 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.91.41.92.32.42.31.91.510.70.40.40.71.21.72.22.42.42.21.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:37 PM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:41 PM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.30.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.50.50.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.